50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $455/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 5d | 37 × $17 | 82% | $5,328 | $2,211 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 38 × $20.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 30.7% | 99% | 2% | -16pp | $76 | $456 | -$4,872 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $20.50 30.7% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.05 mid) = $76 credit for the 5d cycle → $456/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $20.55) 99% EV / mo +$399 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -16pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,379/mo median; plan ~$937/mo after 68% keep · $5,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,389 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20.50 is at/above CC-SS $19.89: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $20.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,883 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $20.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,875 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,643 (+$16,007 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,748 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$9,105, the opportunity cost of earning $456/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 5d | 14.7% | 93% | 15% | -21pp | $550 | $3,300 | -$2,028 | $8,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 14.7% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.11 mid) = $550 credit for the 5d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 94% EV / mo +$2,432 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -21pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,785/mo median; plan ~$1,214/mo after 68% keep · $7,336 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,298 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $18 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,883 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$8,881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,648 (+$10,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,748 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,100, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 11.5% | 88% | 24% | -10pp | $592 | $3,552 | -$1,776 | $8,237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17.50 11.5% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.17 mid) = $592 credit for the 5d cycle → $3,552/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 90% EV / mo +$2,324 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -10pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,250/mo median; plan ~$2,210/mo after 68% keep · $12,752 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,457 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,883 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17.50): -$8,237 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,119 (+$7,531 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,748 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$629, the opportunity cost of earning $3,552/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $17 | 24 Jul | 5d | 8.3% | 82% | 26% | -6pp | $888 | $5,328 | — | $9,791 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17 8.3% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.26 mid) = $888 credit for the 5d cycle → $5,328/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 86% EV / mo +$2,969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -6pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,874/mo median; plan ~$2,634/mo after 68% keep · $12,440 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,103 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 783 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,883 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17): -$9,791 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,673 (+$5,977 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,748 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-925, the opportunity cost of earning $5,328/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 5.2% | 72% | 57% | -7pp | $1,776 | $10,656 | +$5,328 | $14,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $16.50 5.2% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.39 mid) = $1,776 credit for the 5d cycle → $10,656/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $16.89) 80% EV / mo +$4,928 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -7pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,209/mo median; plan ~$2,862/mo after 68% keep · $14,308 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$730 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,226 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $16.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,883 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $16.50): -$14,478 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$479 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,724 (+$3,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,748 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,976, the opportunity cost of earning $10,656/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$18,883 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,748
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 37/50 | $5,328 | $6,466 | 82% | 86% | +$2,969 | -$9,791 | 31.3% | $-17,673 (vs do-nothing $-925) |
| $17 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 44/50 | $5,390 | $5,670 | 73% | 79% | +$1,832 | -$10,543 | 33.7% | $-16,748 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 24/50 | $5,328 | $8,058 | 72% | 80% | +$2,464 | -$7,239 | 23.2% | $-18,236 (vs do-nothing $-1,488) |
| $17 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 48/50 | $5,381 | $5,172 | 70% | 77% | +$1,506 | -$10,446 | 33.4% | $-15,692 (vs do-nothing +$1,056) |
| $16.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 34/50 | $5,355 | $6,860 | 66% | 75% | +$1,484 | -$9,371 | 30.0% | $-17,972 (vs do-nothing $-1,224) |
| $16.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 44/50 | $5,419 | $5,699 | 64% | 74% | +$819 | -$11,467 | 36.7% | $-17,672 (vs do-nothing $-924) |
| $16.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 45/50 | $5,348 | $5,506 | 63% | 74% | +$1,219 | -$10,603 | 33.9% | $-16,568 (vs do-nothing +$180) |
| $16 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 18/50 | $5,616 | $9,081 | 60% | 73% | +$1,798 | -$6,059 | 19.4% | $-18,494 (vs do-nothing $-1,746) |
| $16 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 26/50 | $5,330 | $7,815 | 58% | 72% | +$1,220 | -$7,972 | 25.5% | $-18,490 (vs do-nothing $-1,742) |
| $16 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 38/50 | $5,437 | $6,452 | 58% | 71% | +$1,109 | -$10,055 | 32.2% | $-17,698 (vs do-nothing $-950) |
| $16 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 33/50 | $5,471 | $7,099 | 58% | 71% | +$1,042 | -$9,359 | 29.9% | $-18,200 (vs do-nothing $-1,452) |
| $15.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 32/50 | $5,428 | $7,178 | 52% | 69% | +$932 | -$9,332 | 29.9% | $-18,412 (vs do-nothing $-1,664) |
| $15.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 27/50 | $5,414 | $7,777 | 51% | 68% | +$815 | -$8,414 | 26.9% | $-18,692 (vs do-nothing $-1,944) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 21/50 | $5,460 | $8,558 | 50% | 68% | +$939 | -$7,027 | 22.5% | $-18,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,995) |
| $15.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 12/50 | $5,400 | $9,600 | 47% | 67% | +$1,177 | -$4,363 | 14.0% | $-18,236 (vs do-nothing $-1,488) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.