50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $20.61 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,735/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 32 × $18 | 84% | $4,480 | $1,524 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 38 × $18 | 73% | $4,446 | $850 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 49 × $20 | 24 Jul | 3d | 19.4% | 99% | 3% | -39pp | $49 | $490 | -$3,990 | $2,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $20 19.4% OTM over spot $16.75 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.01 mid) = $49 credit for the 3d cycle → $490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99% EV / mo +$391 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -39pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $153/mo median; plan ~$104/mo after 68% keep · $339 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,163 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $20): -$2,916 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$287 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,655 (+$14,145 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,123, the opportunity cost of earning $490/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.4% | 91% | 18% | -26pp | $296 | $2,960 | -$1,520 | $7,493 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $18.50 10.4% OTM over spot $16.75 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $296 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 92% EV / mo +$1,846 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -26pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,360/mo median; plan ~$2,965/mo after 68% keep · $13,205 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,249 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 344 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $18.50): -$7,493 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,670 (+$6,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,108, the opportunity cost of earning $2,960/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.4% | 91% | 18% | -29pp | $400 | $4,000 | -$480 | $10,126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 10.4% OTM over spot $16.75 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 92% EV / mo +$2,495 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -29pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,338/mo median; plan ~$1,590/mo after 68% keep · $7,095 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,688 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$10,126 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,578 (+$7,222 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,200, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 32 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 7.5% | 84% | 23% | -17pp | $448 | $4,480 | — | $7,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $18 7.5% OTM over spot $16.75 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $448 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $18.15) 87% EV / mo +$2,189 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -17pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,114/mo median; plan ~$4,157/mo after 68% keep · $13,478 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$852 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 682 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $18.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $18): -$7,889 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17): -$5,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,498 (+$4,302 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,280, the opportunity cost of earning $4,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 37 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.5% | 73% | 55% | -17pp | $888 | $8,880 | +$4,400 | $10,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17.50 4.5% OTM over spot $16.75 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $888 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 79% EV / mo +$2,997 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -17pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,390/mo median; plan ~$4,345/mo after 68% keep · $12,641 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.7], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$574 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,133 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17.50): -$10,601 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,778 (+$3,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $8,880/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $21.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 28.4% | 97% | 7% | -31pp | $164 | $492 | -$3,954 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $21.50 28.4% OTM over spot $16.75 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $164 credit for the 10d cycle → $492/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $21.56) 97% EV / mo +$286 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -31pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,901/mo median; plan ~$1,293/mo after 68% keep · $5,718 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,261 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 101 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $22 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.61: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $21.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $21.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,030 (+$14,770 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,747, the opportunity cost of earning $492/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $20 | 31 Jul | 10d | 19.4% | 92% | 17% | -36pp | $550 | $1,650 | -$2,796 | $2,476 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 19.4% OTM over spot $16.75 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $20.12) 92% EV / mo +$816 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -36pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $671/mo median; plan ~$457/mo after 68% keep · $2,180 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,336 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $20.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$2,476 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,928 (+$14,872 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $19 | 31 Jul | 10d | 13.4% | 85% | 32% | -31pp | $966 | $2,898 | -$1,548 | $6,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $19 13.4% OTM over spot $16.75 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $966 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,898/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $19.22) 87% EV / mo +$1,109 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -31pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,123/mo median; plan ~$1,444/mo after 68% keep · $6,947 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,430 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 705 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $2 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $19.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $19): -$6,418 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,146 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,016 (+$9,784 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,762, the opportunity cost of earning $2,898/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 7.5% | 73% | 45% | -22pp | $1,482 | $4,446 | — | $8,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $18 7.5% OTM over spot $16.75 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.41 mid) = $1,482 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,446/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $18.41) 79% EV / mo +$1,056 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -22pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,364/mo median; plan ~$2,967/mo after 68% keep · $11,830 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,176 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,353 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $18.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $18): -$8,418 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,438 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,308 (+$5,492 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,470, the opportunity cost of earning $4,446/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 1.5% | 57% | 90% | -21pp | $2,960 | $8,880 | +$4,434 | $11,461 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $17 1.5% OTM over spot $16.75 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.76 mid) = $2,960 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 70% EV / mo +$1,333 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -21pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,027/mo median; plan ~$3,419/mo after 68% keep · $12,430 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$318 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,248 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,348 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $17): -$11,461 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,865 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,778 (+$3,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,778 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $8,880/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$17,348 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,778
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 32/50 | $4,480 | $7,992 | 84% | 87% | +$2,189 | -$7,889 | 25.2% | $-17,498 (vs do-nothing +$1,280) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 19/50 | $4,560 | $10,958 | 73% | 79% | +$1,539 | -$5,444 | 17.4% | $-18,778 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 38/50 | $4,446 | $6,626 | 73% | 79% | +$1,056 | -$8,418 | 26.9% | $-16,308 (vs do-nothing +$2,470) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 38/50 | $4,426 | $6,606 | 69% | 76% | +$920 | -$7,392 | 23.7% | $-15,282 (vs do-nothing +$3,496) |
| $18 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 41/50 | $4,459 | $5,973 | 68% | 76% | +$971 | -$7,114 | 22.8% | $-14,145 (vs do-nothing +$4,633) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 27/50 | $4,374 | $8,996 | 66% | 74% | +$823 | -$6,926 | 22.2% | $-17,968 (vs do-nothing +$810) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 31/50 | $4,486 | $8,220 | 63% | 73% | +$771 | -$7,084 | 22.7% | $-16,980 (vs do-nothing +$1,798) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 34/50 | $4,420 | $7,488 | 62% | 73% | +$822 | -$7,022 | 22.5% | $-16,058 (vs do-nothing +$2,720) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 11/50 | $4,400 | $12,574 | 59% | 71% | +$884 | -$3,526 | 11.3% | $-19,152 (vs do-nothing $-374) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 20/50 | $4,440 | $10,616 | 57% | 70% | +$666 | -$5,730 | 18.3% | $-18,778 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 29/50 | $4,495 | $8,673 | 57% | 70% | +$702 | -$6,859 | 21.9% | $-17,328 (vs do-nothing +$1,450) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 25/50 | $4,456 | $9,522 | 57% | 70% | +$603 | -$6,488 | 20.8% | $-18,103 (vs do-nothing +$675) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 24/50 | $4,380 | $9,668 | 51% | 68% | +$532 | -$6,348 | 20.3% | $-18,250 (vs do-nothing +$528) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 20/50 | $4,376 | $10,553 | 50% | 67% | +$462 | -$5,730 | 18.3% | $-18,778 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 16/50 | $4,656 | $11,720 | 48% | 66% | +$461 | -$5,016 | 16.1% | $-19,210 (vs do-nothing $-432) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 7/50 | $4,410 | $13,472 | 44% | 63% | +$404 | -$2,433 | 7.8% | $-19,205 (vs do-nothing $-427) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.