50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $20.64 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 32 × $18 | 83% | $4,480 | $1,442 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 39 × $18 | 73% | $4,563 | $1,038 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 49 × $20 | 24 Jul | 3d | 19.2% | 99% | 3% | -39pp | $49 | $490 | -$3,990 | $3,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $20 19.2% OTM over spot $16.79 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.01 mid) = $49 credit for the 3d cycle → $490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99% EV / mo +$381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -39pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $153/mo median; plan ~$104/mo after 68% keep · $325 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,198 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $20): -$3,084 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,829 (+$13,971 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,123, the opportunity cost of earning $490/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.2% | 91% | 19% | -25pp | $296 | $2,960 | -$1,520 | $7,619 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $18.50 10.2% OTM over spot $16.79 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $296 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 92% EV / mo +$1,759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -25pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,324/mo median; plan ~$2,940/mo after 68% keep · $13,532 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,273 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $18.50): -$7,619 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,769 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,844 (+$5,956 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,108, the opportunity cost of earning $2,960/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 10.2% | 91% | 19% | -29pp | $400 | $4,000 | -$480 | $10,296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 10.2% OTM over spot $16.79 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 92% EV / mo +$2,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -29pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,338/mo median; plan ~$1,590/mo after 68% keep · $6,995 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,721 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$10,296 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,752 (+$7,048 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,200, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 32 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 7.2% | 83% | 23% | -17pp | $448 | $4,480 | — | $7,998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $18 7.2% OTM over spot $16.79 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $448 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $18.15) 86% EV / mo +$2,032 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -17pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,060/mo median; plan ~$4,121/mo after 68% keep · $13,321 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$873 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 690 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $18.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $18): -$7,998 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17): -$5,219 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,672 (+$4,128 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,280, the opportunity cost of earning $4,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 4.3% | 72% | 57% | -18pp | $912 | $9,120 | +$4,640 | $11,017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17.50 4.3% OTM over spot $16.79 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $912 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 79% EV / mo +$2,730 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -18pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,112/mo median; plan ~$4,156/mo after 68% keep · $15,261 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$613 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,129 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17.50): -$11,017 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,479 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,952 (+$2,848 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $9,120/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $21.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 28.1% | 96% | 7% | -31pp | $164 | $492 | -$4,071 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $21.50 28.1% OTM over spot $16.79 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $164 credit for the 10d cycle → $492/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $21.56) 97% EV / mo +$275 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -31pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,898/mo median; plan ~$1,290/mo after 68% keep · $5,661 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,098 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 102 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $22 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.64: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $21.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $21.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,609 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,065 (+$14,735 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,887, the opportunity cost of earning $492/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $20 | 31 Jul | 10d | 19.2% | 91% | 18% | -36pp | $550 | $1,650 | -$2,913 | $2,646 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 19.2% OTM over spot $16.79 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $20.12) 92% EV / mo +$780 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -36pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $635/mo median; plan ~$432/mo after 68% keep · $2,198 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,151 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $20.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$2,646 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,102 (+$14,698 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 47 × $19 | 31 Jul | 10d | 13.2% | 84% | 33% | -33pp | $987 | $2,961 | -$1,602 | $6,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $19 13.2% OTM over spot $16.79 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $987 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,961/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $19.22) 86% EV / mo +$1,062 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -33pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,991/mo median; plan ~$1,354/mo after 68% keep · $6,470 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,318 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 717 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $2 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $19.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $19): -$6,718 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$870 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,043 (+$9,757 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,909, the opportunity cost of earning $2,961/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 7.2% | 73% | 45% | -28pp | $1,521 | $4,563 | — | $8,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $18 7.2% OTM over spot $16.79 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.41 mid) = $1,521 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,563/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $18.41) 78% EV / mo +$969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -28pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,107/mo median; plan ~$2,793/mo after 68% keep · $11,802 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,077 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,357 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $18.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $18): -$8,772 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$3,189 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,417 (+$5,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,535, the opportunity cost of earning $4,563/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 1.3% | 56% | 92% | -23pp | $3,034 | $9,102 | +$4,539 | $11,887 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $17 1.3% OTM over spot $16.79 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.76 mid) = $3,034 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,102/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 69% EV / mo +$1,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -23pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,888/mo median; plan ~$3,324/mo after 68% keep · $11,915 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$455 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,257 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,344 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $17): -$11,887 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,609 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,952 (+$2,848 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,952 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $9,102/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$17,344 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,952
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 32/50 | $4,480 | $7,992 | 83% | 86% | +$2,032 | -$7,998 | 25.6% | $-17,672 (vs do-nothing +$1,280) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 39/50 | $4,563 | $6,521 | 73% | 78% | +$969 | -$8,772 | 28.1% | $-16,417 (vs do-nothing +$2,535) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 19/50 | $4,560 | $10,958 | 72% | 79% | +$1,365 | -$5,509 | 17.6% | $-18,952 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 39/50 | $4,542 | $6,500 | 69% | 76% | +$862 | -$7,719 | 24.7% | $-15,364 (vs do-nothing +$3,588) |
| $18 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 41/50 | $4,459 | $5,973 | 67% | 75% | +$904 | -$7,254 | 23.2% | $-14,319 (vs do-nothing +$4,633) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 28/50 | $4,536 | $8,936 | 65% | 74% | +$744 | -$7,278 | 23.3% | $-18,112 (vs do-nothing +$840) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 31/50 | $4,486 | $8,220 | 63% | 73% | +$691 | -$7,190 | 23.0% | $-17,154 (vs do-nothing +$1,798) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 35/50 | $4,550 | $7,396 | 62% | 72% | +$779 | -$7,348 | 23.5% | $-16,152 (vs do-nothing +$2,800) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/50 | $4,800 | $12,752 | 58% | 70% | +$785 | -$3,887 | 12.4% | $-19,360 (vs do-nothing $-408) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 29/50 | $4,495 | $8,673 | 57% | 70% | +$638 | -$6,958 | 22.3% | $-17,502 (vs do-nothing +$1,450) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 21/50 | $4,662 | $10,616 | 56% | 69% | +$596 | -$6,089 | 19.5% | $-18,952 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 26/50 | $4,634 | $9,478 | 56% | 69% | +$548 | -$6,836 | 21.9% | $-18,250 (vs do-nothing +$702) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 25/50 | $4,562 | $9,629 | 51% | 67% | +$492 | -$6,698 | 21.4% | $-18,402 (vs do-nothing +$550) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 21/50 | $4,595 | $10,549 | 50% | 66% | +$411 | -$6,089 | 19.5% | $-18,952 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 16/50 | $4,656 | $11,720 | 47% | 65% | +$364 | -$5,071 | 16.2% | $-19,384 (vs do-nothing $-432) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 8/50 | $5,040 | $13,880 | 43% | 62% | +$291 | -$2,807 | 9.0% | $-19,440 (vs do-nothing $-488) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.