50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $20.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 32 × $18 | 82% | $4,480 | $1,495 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 39 × $18 | 72% | $4,563 | $1,047 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 49 × $20 | 24 Jul | 3d | 18.6% | 98% | 3% | -38pp | $49 | $490 | -$3,990 | $3,440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $20 18.6% OTM over spot $16.86 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.01 mid) = $49 credit for the 3d cycle → $490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 98% EV / mo +$357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -38pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $148/mo median; plan ~$101/mo after 68% keep · $330 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,024 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $20): -$3,440 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,203 (+$13,597 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,123, the opportunity cost of earning $490/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $20 | 31 Jul | 10d | 18.6% | 91% | 19% | -36pp | $550 | $1,650 | -$2,830 | $3,010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 18.6% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $20.12) 92% EV / mo +$697 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -36pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $662/mo median; plan ~$450/mo after 68% keep · $2,250 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,982 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $20.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$3,010 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,476 (+$14,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.7% | 90% | 21% | -25pp | $296 | $2,960 | -$1,520 | $7,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $18.50 9.7% OTM over spot $16.86 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $296 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.59) 91% EV / mo +$1,552 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -25pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,292/mo median; plan ~$2,919/mo after 68% keep · $12,642 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,152 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 393 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $18.50): -$7,889 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,218 (+$5,582 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,108, the opportunity cost of earning $2,960/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 32 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.8% | 82% | 24% | -17pp | $448 | $4,480 | — | $8,231 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $18 6.8% OTM over spot $16.86 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $448 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $18.15) 85% EV / mo +$1,669 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -17pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,008/mo median; plan ~$4,086/mo after 68% keep · $12,167 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$770 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 735 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $18.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $18): -$8,231 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17): -$5,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,046 (+$3,754 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,280, the opportunity cost of earning $4,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 3.8% | 70% | 61% | -19pp | $912 | $9,120 | +$4,640 | $11,294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17.50 3.8% OTM over spot $16.86 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $912 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 77% EV / mo +$1,937 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -19pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,936/mo median; plan ~$4,036/mo after 68% keep · $14,207 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$494 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.52/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,232 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17.50): -$11,294 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,566 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,326 (+$2,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $9,120/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $21.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 27.5% | 96% | 8% | -31pp | $164 | $492 | -$4,071 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $21.50 27.5% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $164 credit for the 10d cycle → $492/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $21.56) 96% EV / mo +$252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -31pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,897/mo median; plan ~$1,290/mo after 68% keep · $5,468 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,950 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $23 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $22 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.71: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $21.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $21.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,141 (+$14,659 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$12,185, the opportunity cost of earning $492/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $20 | 31 Jul | 10d | 18.6% | 91% | 19% | -36pp | $550 | $1,650 | -$2,913 | $3,010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 18.6% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $20.12) 92% EV / mo +$697 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -36pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $662/mo median; plan ~$450/mo after 68% keep · $2,250 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,982 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $1 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $20.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$3,010 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,476 (+$14,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 47 × $19 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.7% | 83% | 34% | -32pp | $987 | $2,961 | -$1,602 | $7,060 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $19 12.7% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $987 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,961/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $19.22) 86% EV / mo +$902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -32pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,946/mo median; plan ~$1,323/mo after 68% keep · $6,517 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,167 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $2 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $19.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $19): -$7,060 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$892 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,417 (+$9,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,909, the opportunity cost of earning $2,961/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 6.8% | 72% | 47% | -28pp | $1,521 | $4,563 | — | $9,056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $18 6.8% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.41 mid) = $1,521 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,563/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $18.41) 77% EV / mo +$716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -28pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,032/mo median; plan ~$2,742/mo after 68% keep · $11,581 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$959 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,418 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $18.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $18): -$9,056 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$3,269 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,791 (+$5,009 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,535, the opportunity cost of earning $4,563/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 0.8% | 55% | 95% | -23pp | $3,034 | $9,102 | +$4,539 | $12,185 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $17 0.8% OTM over spot $16.86 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.76 mid) = $3,034 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,102/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $17.76) 68% EV / mo +$716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -23pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 100% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,885/mo median; plan ~$3,322/mo after 68% keep · $11,924 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$572 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,327 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $17.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,334 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $17): -$12,185 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,326 (+$2,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,326 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $9,102/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$17,334 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-19,326
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 32/50 | $4,480 | $7,992 | 82% | 85% | +$1,669 | -$8,231 | 26.3% | $-18,046 (vs do-nothing +$1,280) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 39/50 | $4,563 | $6,521 | 72% | 77% | +$716 | -$9,056 | 29.0% | $-16,791 (vs do-nothing +$2,535) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 19/50 | $4,560 | $10,958 | 70% | 77% | +$969 | -$5,647 | 18.1% | $-19,326 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 39/50 | $4,542 | $6,500 | 68% | 75% | +$680 | -$8,003 | 25.6% | $-15,738 (vs do-nothing +$3,588) |
| $18 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 41/50 | $4,459 | $5,973 | 66% | 75% | +$758 | -$7,552 | 24.2% | $-14,693 (vs do-nothing +$4,633) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 28/50 | $4,536 | $8,936 | 64% | 73% | +$504 | -$7,482 | 23.9% | $-18,486 (vs do-nothing +$840) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 31/50 | $4,486 | $8,220 | 62% | 72% | +$517 | -$7,415 | 23.7% | $-17,528 (vs do-nothing +$1,798) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 35/50 | $4,550 | $7,396 | 61% | 72% | +$634 | -$7,602 | 24.3% | $-16,526 (vs do-nothing +$2,800) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/50 | $4,800 | $12,752 | 56% | 68% | +$382 | -$3,974 | 12.7% | $-19,734 (vs do-nothing $-408) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 29/50 | $4,495 | $8,673 | 56% | 69% | +$499 | -$7,169 | 22.9% | $-17,876 (vs do-nothing +$1,450) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 26/50 | $4,634 | $9,478 | 55% | 68% | +$375 | -$7,025 | 22.5% | $-18,624 (vs do-nothing +$702) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 21/50 | $4,662 | $10,616 | 55% | 68% | +$367 | -$6,241 | 20.0% | $-19,326 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.