BMNR-LC10 @ $17.01 UNDERWATER $0.12 (0.7% below BE SS)
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $20.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $13.315/sh)
SP: $18 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.355/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.258/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,882/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $484/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,941/mo
HEDGE COVER
$484/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$9,882/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $31,250
ML VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $71,250
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.05 (probe: $20C 17d) still earns $2,382/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 36 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 95 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $24.26 (+43%) · daily UBB $17.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $21 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.31 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $20.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20.50)
92%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $21 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,187 cycle +$1,437 [+$958…+$1,894] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.10/sh | +$488 cycle +$738 [-$98…+$1,095] · 72% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$281 cycle +$531 [-$116…+$809] · 66% credit | 71% surv 60% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.153 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,521 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,675
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $18.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 45/50 | $4,950 | $5,771 | 85% | 87% | +$1,739 | -$6,477 | 20.7% | $-7,345 (vs do-nothing +$3,330) |
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 25/50 | $5,000 | $11,041 | 77% | 81% | +$1,449 | -$4,623 | 14.8% | $-9,850 (vs do-nothing +$825) |
| $18.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 48/50 | $5,040 | $5,078 | 76% | 80% | +$1,241 | -$5,757 | 18.4% | $-5,971 (vs do-nothing +$4,704) |
| $18.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 50/50 | $4,941 | $4,457 | 71% | 77% | +$654 | -$4,946 | 15.8% | $-4,725 (vs do-nothing +$5,950) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 34/50 | $4,998 | $8,690 | 69% | 76% | +$1,061 | -$5,302 | 17.0% | $-8,567 (vs do-nothing +$2,108) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 39/50 | $5,024 | $7,411 | 66% | 74% | +$711 | -$5,145 | 16.5% | $-7,321 (vs do-nothing +$3,354) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 15/50 | $4,950 | $13,601 | 65% | 74% | +$969 | -$3,329 | 10.7% | $-10,735 (vs do-nothing $-60) |
| $18 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 43/50 | $5,052 | $6,396 | 65% | 74% | +$808 | -$4,770 | 15.3% | $-6,074 (vs do-nothing +$4,601) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 26/50 | $4,992 | $10,772 | 61% | 71% | +$687 | -$4,964 | 15.9% | $-9,973 (vs do-nothing +$702) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 30/50 | $5,029 | $9,766 | 60% | 71% | +$781 | -$4,798 | 15.4% | $-8,935 (vs do-nothing +$1,740) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 36/50 | $4,995 | $8,165 | 60% | 71% | +$633 | -$5,181 | 16.6% | $-8,011 (vs do-nothing +$2,664) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 30/50 | $4,950 | $9,686 | 54% | 69% | +$511 | -$5,188 | 16.6% | $-9,325 (vs do-nothing +$1,350) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 25/50 | $4,985 | $11,026 | 53% | 68% | +$497 | -$4,798 | 15.4% | $-10,025 (vs do-nothing +$650) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 19/50 | $4,959 | $12,566 | 52% | 67% | +$576 | -$4,141 | 13.3% | $-10,675 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 10/50 | $5,300 | $15,256 | 51% | 67% | +$666 | -$2,519 | 8.1% | $-11,015 (vs do-nothing $-340) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.