75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $40.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $8,375/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-166,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 55 × $17 | 75% | $7,219 | $1,883 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.0% | 90% | 20% | $900 | $3,375 | -$3,844 | $160,737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18.50 17.0% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $900 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 91% EV / mo +$1,639 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.2 mo [3.7-7.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 15% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 12% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,590 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,283 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.53–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $22 below CC-SS $40.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,631 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18.50): -$160,737 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-163,381 (+$2,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-137,656 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,725, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$375, position total $-147,345 (+$18,930 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 70 × $18 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.9% | 87% | 26% | $1,260 | $4,725 | -$2,494 | $153,101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 70 × $18 13.9% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $18.20) 89% EV / mo +$2,592 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.8 mo [4.6-7.8] median, 0.7 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 14% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 10% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,972 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,447 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 70 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 537 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $18.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,631 − CC assignment net of premium (70 × $18): -$153,101 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $22): -$9,001 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-164,746 (+$1,529 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-137,656 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,090, the opportunity cost of earning $4,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,430, position total $-150,375 (+$15,900 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 55 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.5% | 75% | 41% | $1,925 | $7,219 | — | $124,859 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 55 × $17 7.5% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $1,925 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 80% EV / mo +$2,453 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.2 mo [4.4-7.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 13% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 9% without) · ~14.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $29,657 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,568 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 55 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,222 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $23 below CC-SS $40.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,631 − CC assignment net of premium (55 × $17): -$124,859 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $22): -$36,003 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-163,506 (+$2,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-137,656 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,850, the opportunity cost of earning $7,219/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,260, position total $-154,130 (+$12,145 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 56 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 1.2% | 56% | 92% | $3,808 | $14,280 | +$7,061 | $130,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 56 × $16 1.2% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $3,808 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 70% EV / mo +$2,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.1 mo [4.3-7.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 15% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 11% without) · ~39.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,271 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$461 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 56 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,164 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $24 below CC-SS $40.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,631 − CC assignment net of premium (56 × $16): -$130,881 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $22): -$34,203 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-167,728 ($-1,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-137,656 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,072, the opportunity cost of earning $14,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,144, position total $-158,019 (+$8,256 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$163,631 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-137,656
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 55/75 | $7,219 | $7,419 | 75% | 80% | +$2,453 | -$124,859 | 0.0% | $-163,506 (vs do-nothing $-25,850) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 60/75 | $7,200 | $7,350 | 70% | 77% | +$1,910 | -$134,709 | 0.0% | $-164,356 (vs do-nothing $-26,700) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 38/75 | $7,125 | $7,495 | 66% | 75% | +$1,920 | -$87,596 | 0.0% | $-156,846 (vs do-nothing $-19,190) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 47/75 | $7,144 | $7,424 | 63% | 74% | +$1,589 | -$107,120 | 0.0% | $-160,169 (vs do-nothing $-22,513) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 28/75 | $7,140 | $7,610 | 56% | 70% | +$1,251 | -$65,440 | 0.0% | $-152,692 (vs do-nothing $-15,036) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 38/75 | $7,220 | $7,590 | 56% | 70% | +$1,268 | -$87,786 | 0.0% | $-157,036 (vs do-nothing $-19,380) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 30/75 | $7,140 | $7,590 | 48% | 67% | +$1,004 | -$70,085 | 0.0% | $-153,736 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 21/75 | $7,245 | $7,785 | 46% | 65% | +$885 | -$49,626 | 0.0% | $-149,479 (vs do-nothing $-11,823) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.