75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $39.75 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $16,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,000/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-166,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 63 × $17 | 78% | $8,269 | $2,065 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.7% | 92% | 17% | $900 | $3,375 | -$4,894 | $158,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18.50 18.7% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $900 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 93% EV / mo +$2,091 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.8-7.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 15% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 12% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,021 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,048 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 261 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $21 below CC-SS $39.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $39.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,058 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18.50): -$158,450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-161,668 (+$4,607 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-135,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,725, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$375, position total $-145,860 (+$20,415 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 59 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.3% | 85% | 32% | $1,475 | $5,531 | -$2,738 | $129,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 59 × $17.50 12.3% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $1,475 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,531/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $17.77) 87% EV / mo +$3,108 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.2 mo [4.6-8.0] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (6.5 mo) · 13% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 8% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,802 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,951 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 59 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 703 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $22 below CC-SS $39.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $17.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $39.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,058 − CC assignment net of premium (59 × $17.50): -$129,781 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $22): -$28,315 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-161,313 (+$4,962 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-135,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,370, the opportunity cost of earning $5,531/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,428, position total $-150,833 (+$15,442 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 63 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 78% | 36% | $2,205 | $8,269 | — | $141,099 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 63 × $17 9.0% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $2,205 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,269/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 83% EV / mo +$3,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.2 mo [4.9-7.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 15% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 10% without) · ~12.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $35,159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,386 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 63 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,081 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $23 below CC-SS $39.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $39.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,058 − CC assignment net of premium (63 × $17): -$141,099 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $22): -$21,236 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-165,553 (+$722 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-135,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,610, the opportunity cost of earning $8,269/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,316, position total $-153,741 (+$12,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 65 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 61% | 82% | $4,420 | $16,575 | +$8,306 | $149,934 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 65 × $16 2.6% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $4,420 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 74% EV / mo +$5,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.9-6.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 14% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 9% without) · ~29.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $46,974 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$38 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 65 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,962 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $24 below CC-SS $39.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $39.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$163,058 − CC assignment net of premium (65 × $16): -$149,934 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $22): -$17,697 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-170,848 ($-4,573 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-135,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,905, the opportunity cost of earning $16,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,935, position total $-158,370 (+$7,905 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$163,058 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-135,943
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 63/75 | $8,269 | $8,389 | 78% | 83% | +$3,907 | -$141,099 | 0.0% | $-165,553 (vs do-nothing $-29,610) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 69/75 | $8,280 | $8,340 | 73% | 80% | +$3,136 | -$152,812 | 0.0% | $-166,648 (vs do-nothing $-30,705) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 44/75 | $8,250 | $8,560 | 70% | 79% | +$3,332 | -$100,086 | 0.0% | $-158,163 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 55/75 | $8,360 | $8,560 | 67% | 76% | +$2,795 | -$123,677 | 0.0% | $-162,288 (vs do-nothing $-26,345) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 64/75 | $8,378 | $8,488 | 65% | 75% | +$2,213 | -$142,635 | 0.0% | $-165,319 (vs do-nothing $-29,376) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 33/75 | $8,415 | $8,835 | 61% | 74% | +$2,716 | -$76,120 | 0.0% | $-153,664 (vs do-nothing $-17,721) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 44/75 | $8,360 | $8,670 | 60% | 73% | +$2,383 | -$100,306 | 0.0% | $-158,383 (vs do-nothing $-22,440) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 53/75 | $8,384 | $8,604 | 59% | 72% | +$1,932 | -$119,710 | 0.0% | $-161,860 (vs do-nothing $-25,917) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 44/75 | $8,400 | $8,710 | 53% | 70% | +$1,705 | -$100,526 | 0.0% | $-158,603 (vs do-nothing $-22,660) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 35/75 | $8,330 | $8,730 | 52% | 70% | +$2,040 | -$80,699 | 0.0% | $-154,703 (vs do-nothing $-18,760) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 24/75 | $8,280 | $8,790 | 50% | 70% | +$2,153 | -$55,984 | 0.0% | $-149,455 (vs do-nothing $-13,512) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.