75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $36.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $12,825/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,156/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-168,638 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 66 × $17 | 77% | $6,435 | $1,440 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.6% | 91% | 19% | $525 | $1,969 | -$4,466 | $136,920 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18.50 18.6% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $525 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,969/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.62) 92% EV / mo +$352 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.2 mo [3.5-7.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 16% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 15% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,812 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,250 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $18 below CC-SS $36.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-168,638 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$160,908 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18.50): -$136,920 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-144,649 (+$23,988 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-118,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,875, the opportunity cost of earning $1,969/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$750, position total $-146,147 (+$22,490 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 67 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 83% | 35% | $1,139 | $4,271 | -$2,164 | $128,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 67 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $1,139 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,271/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.71) 85% EV / mo +$857 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.5-7.0] median · 13% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 12% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,696 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,896 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 67 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 695 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-168,638 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$160,908 − CC assignment net of premium (67 × $17.50): -$128,345 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $22): -$11,845 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-147,919 (+$20,718 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-118,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,145, the opportunity cost of earning $4,271/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,700, position total $-152,081 (+$16,556 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 66 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 77% | 34% | $1,716 | $6,435 | — | $129,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 66 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $1,716 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,435/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $17.29) 81% EV / mo +$1,239 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.9 mo [4.9-7.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 15% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 11% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,238 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,145 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 66 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,035 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $20 below CC-SS $36.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $17.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-168,638 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$160,908 − CC assignment net of premium (66 × $17): -$129,136 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $22): -$13,325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-150,190 (+$18,447 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-118,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,416, the opportunity cost of earning $6,435/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,306, position total $-154,685 (+$13,952 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 66 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.5% | 60% | 83% | $3,432 | $12,870 | +$6,435 | $134,020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 66 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $3,432 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 71% EV / mo +$957 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.5 mo [4.0-6.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.8 mo) · 14% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 11% without) · ~30.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $34,328 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$202 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 66 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $21 below CC-SS $36.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-168,638 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$160,908 − CC assignment net of premium (66 × $16): -$134,020 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $22): -$13,325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-155,074 (+$13,563 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-118,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,300, the opportunity cost of earning $12,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,190, position total $-159,569 (+$9,068 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.011 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$160,908 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-118,774
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 66/75 | $6,435 | $6,471 | 77% | 81% | +$1,239 | -$129,136 | 0.0% | $-150,190 (vs do-nothing $-31,416) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 70/75 | $6,440 | $6,460 | 72% | 78% | +$1,016 | -$135,562 | 0.0% | $-150,694 (vs do-nothing $-31,920) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 48/75 | $6,480 | $6,588 | 70% | 76% | +$699 | -$95,837 | 0.0% | $-143,542 (vs do-nothing $-24,768) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 57/75 | $6,498 | $6,570 | 66% | 74% | +$515 | -$112,609 | 0.0% | $-146,989 (vs do-nothing $-28,215) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 65/75 | $6,470 | $6,510 | 65% | 74% | +$115 | -$127,374 | 0.0% | $-149,909 (vs do-nothing $-31,135) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 33/75 | $6,435 | $6,603 | 60% | 71% | +$478 | -$67,010 | 0.0% | $-136,924 (vs do-nothing $-18,150) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 44/75 | $6,512 | $6,636 | 59% | 70% | +$336 | -$88,379 | 0.0% | $-142,006 (vs do-nothing $-23,232) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 53/75 | $6,432 | $6,520 | 59% | 72% | $-106 | -$105,661 | 0.0% | $-145,963 (vs do-nothing $-27,189) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 42/75 | $6,472 | $6,604 | 53% | 68% | +$6 | -$84,823 | 0.0% | $-141,412 (vs do-nothing $-22,638) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 34/75 | $6,528 | $6,692 | 52% | 67% | +$247 | -$69,244 | 0.0% | $-137,678 (vs do-nothing $-18,904) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 25/75 | $6,656 | $6,856 | 50% | 65% | +$86 | -$51,540 | 0.0% | $-133,299 (vs do-nothing $-14,525) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.