75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $37.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,223/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,589/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-166,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 73 × $17 | 80% | $7,196 | $2,309 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.6% | 90% | 20% | +2pp | $825 | $3,536 | -$3,660 | $142,564 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $825 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 91% EV / mo +$1,843 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,334/mo median; plan ~$1,587/mo after 68% keep · $20,113 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.0-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,584 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $19 below CC-SS $37.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$162,707 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18): -$142,564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-146,131 (+$20,144 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-94,381 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,125, position total $-147,101 (+$19,174 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 69 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.4% | 86% | 28% | +3pp | $1,104 | $4,731 | -$2,464 | $134,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 69 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $1,104 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,731/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $17.67) 88% EV / mo +$2,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,863/mo median; plan ~$1,947/mo after 68% keep · $24,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.5-7.0], measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,840 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 69 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 551 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $20 below CC-SS $37.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$162,707 − CC assignment net of premium (69 × $17.50): -$134,264 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $25): -$7,265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-145,096 (+$21,179 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-94,381 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,715, the opportunity cost of earning $4,731/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,900, position total $-149,870 (+$16,405 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 73 × $17 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.1% | 80% | 28% | +5pp | $1,679 | $7,196 | — | $145,186 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 73 × $17 9.1% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $1,679 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,196/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 84% EV / mo +$2,807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,706/mo median; plan ~$2,520/mo after 68% keep · $31,791 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.2-7.3], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,374 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 73 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 844 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $20 below CC-SS $37.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$162,707 − CC assignment net of premium (73 × $17): -$145,186 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $25): -$2,422 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-151,175 (+$15,100 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-94,381 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,794, the opportunity cost of earning $7,196/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,439, position total $-153,413 (+$12,862 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 68 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 62% | 79% | +4pp | $3,332 | $14,280 | +$7,084 | $140,274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 68 × $16 2.7% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $3,332 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.52) 73% EV / mo +$3,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,782/mo median; plan ~$3,252/mo after 68% keep · $40,970 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.6-6.8], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$222 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 68 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.69–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,778 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $21 below CC-SS $37.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-166,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$162,707 − CC assignment net of premium (68 × $16): -$140,274 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $25): -$8,476 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-152,317 (+$13,958 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-94,381 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,936, the opportunity cost of earning $14,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,756, position total $-157,725 (+$8,550 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.007 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$162,707 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-94,381
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 73/75 | $7,196 | $7,200 | 80% | 84% | +$2,807 | -$145,186 | 0.0% | $-151,175 (vs do-nothing $-56,794) |
| $16.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 49/75 | $7,140 | $7,196 | 72% | 78% | +$2,278 | -$99,365 | 0.0% | $-134,414 (vs do-nothing $-40,033) |
| $17 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 75/75 | $7,179 | $7,179 | 71% | 78% | +$2,240 | -$145,864 | 0.0% | $-149,431 (vs do-nothing $-55,050) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 58/75 | $7,209 | $7,245 | 68% | 76% | +$1,699 | -$116,223 | 0.0% | $-140,375 (vs do-nothing $-45,994) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 64/75 | $7,223 | $7,246 | 66% | 75% | +$1,662 | -$126,902 | 0.0% | $-143,789 (vs do-nothing $-49,408) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 70/75 | $7,200 | $7,211 | 65% | 74% | +$1,475 | -$137,609 | 0.0% | $-147,231 (vs do-nothing $-52,850) |
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 34/75 | $7,140 | $7,228 | 62% | 73% | +$1,675 | -$70,137 | 0.0% | $-123,349 (vs do-nothing $-28,968) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 45/75 | $7,136 | $7,200 | 60% | 72% | +$1,267 | -$91,703 | 0.0% | $-131,596 (vs do-nothing $-37,215) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 52/75 | $7,206 | $7,255 | 59% | 71% | +$1,237 | -$104,772 | 0.0% | $-136,189 (vs do-nothing $-41,808) |
| $16 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 59/75 | $7,206 | $7,241 | 59% | 72% | +$1,221 | -$117,873 | 0.0% | $-140,814 (vs do-nothing $-46,433) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 48/75 | $7,200 | $7,258 | 53% | 69% | +$1,204 | -$97,049 | 0.0% | $-133,309 (vs do-nothing $-38,928) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 43/75 | $7,187 | $7,256 | 53% | 68% | +$900 | -$87,929 | 0.0% | $-130,243 (vs do-nothing $-35,862) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 35/75 | $7,200 | $7,286 | 52% | 68% | +$1,023 | -$72,305 | 0.0% | $-124,306 (vs do-nothing $-29,925) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 24/75 | $7,200 | $7,309 | 50% | 67% | +$1,165 | -$50,204 | 0.0% | $-115,525 (vs do-nothing $-21,144) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.