75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $36.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,018/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,007/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-173,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 59 × $16 | 74% | $6,574 | $1,149 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 16.9% | 91% | 19% | +2pp | $675 | $2,893 | -$3,681 | $145,054 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $17.50 16.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $675 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,893/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.62) 92% EV / mo +$1,267 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,893/mo median; plan ~$1,287/mo after 68% keep · $15,633 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.2-6.9], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,827 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 282 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-173,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$164,374 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $17.50): -$145,054 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-154,379 (+$19,321 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-121,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,225, the opportunity cost of earning $2,893/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,800, position total $-154,105 (+$19,595 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 51 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.2% | 82% | 38% | +3pp | $1,020 | $4,371 | -$2,203 | $103,176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 51 × $16.50 10.2% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,371/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 84% EV / mo +$1,527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,395/mo median; plan ~$1,629/mo after 68% keep · $20,500 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [4.3-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,866 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 51 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 776 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $20 below CC-SS $36.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-173,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$164,374 − CC assignment net of premium (51 × $16.50): -$103,176 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $22): -$35,785 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-148,286 (+$25,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-121,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,132, the opportunity cost of earning $4,371/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,843, position total $-156,100 (+$17,600 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 59 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.9% | 74% | 39% | +2pp | $1,534 | $6,574 | — | $121,956 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 59 × $16 6.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $1,534 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,574/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 79% EV / mo +$1,215 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,000/mo median; plan ~$2,040/mo after 68% keep · $26,297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [4.4-7.4], measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,704 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 59 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,173 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $21 below CC-SS $36.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-173,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$164,374 − CC assignment net of premium (59 × $16): -$121,956 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $22): -$23,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-155,138 (+$18,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-121,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,984, the opportunity cost of earning $6,574/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,983, position total $-160,256 (+$13,444 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 71 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 64% | 74% | +6pp | $3,053 | $13,084 | +$6,510 | $149,104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 71 × $15.50 3.5% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $3,053 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,084/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $15.96) 74% EV / mo +$2,689 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,644/mo median; plan ~$3,158/mo after 68% keep · $40,152 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [4.7-7.8], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$722 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 71 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.67–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,709 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $21 below CC-SS $36.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $15.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-173,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$164,374 − CC assignment net of premium (71 × $15.50): -$149,104 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $22): -$5,964 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-164,393 (+$9,307 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-121,154 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,239, the opportunity cost of earning $13,084/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,170, position total $-165,467 (+$8,233 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.998 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$164,374 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-121,154
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 59/75 | $6,574 | $6,643 | 74% | 79% | +$1,215 | -$121,956 | 0.0% | $-155,138 (vs do-nothing $-33,984) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 67/75 | $6,604 | $6,639 | 69% | 77% | +$908 | -$137,152 | 0.0% | $-158,406 (vs do-nothing $-37,252) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 70/75 | $6,600 | $6,621 | 67% | 75% | +$919 | -$141,893 | 0.0% | $-158,674 (vs do-nothing $-37,520) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 36/75 | $6,634 | $6,801 | 64% | 74% | +$1,363 | -$75,602 | 0.0% | $-143,078 (vs do-nothing $-21,924) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 50/75 | $6,536 | $6,643 | 62% | 72% | +$627 | -$104,102 | 0.0% | $-150,704 (vs do-nothing $-29,550) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 56/75 | $6,560 | $6,641 | 61% | 72% | +$631 | -$115,419 | 0.0% | $-153,074 (vs do-nothing $-31,920) |
| $15 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 54/75 | $6,596 | $6,686 | 55% | 69% | +$216 | -$112,269 | 0.0% | $-152,906 (vs do-nothing $-31,752) |
| $15 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 45/75 | $6,557 | $6,686 | 54% | 69% | +$419 | -$94,097 | 0.0% | $-148,154 (vs do-nothing $-27,000) |
| $15 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 38/75 | $6,596 | $6,754 | 54% | 68% | +$435 | -$80,258 | 0.0% | $-144,752 (vs do-nothing $-23,598) |
| $15 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 27/75 | $6,711 | $6,917 | 53% | 68% | +$508 | -$57,646 | 0.0% | $-138,542 (vs do-nothing $-17,388) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.