25 of 75 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $36.90 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $25,320 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,106/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,327/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.17 | $862 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 23 × $17 | 81% | $2,645 | $1,009 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $18 | 24 Jul | 6d | 15.3% | 91% | 18% | +3pp | $250 | $1,250 | -$1,395 | $46,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $18 15.3% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.11 mid) = $250 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $881/mo median; plan ~$599/mo after 68% keep · $7,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [4.1-6.6], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,145 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $19 below CC-SS $36.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,186 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $18): -$46,990 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,329 (+$7,196 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36,904 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,425, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,425, position total $-50,150 (+$6,375 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 12.1% | 87% | 27% | +4pp | $345 | $1,725 | -$920 | $44,266 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $345 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.66) 89% EV / mo +$873 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,085/mo median; plan ~$738/mo after 68% keep · $9,127 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.8-7.3], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$902 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 520 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,186 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$44,266 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $23): -$2,765 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,370 (+$7,155 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36,904 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,466, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,346, position total $-51,057 (+$5,468 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $17 | 24 Jul | 6d | 8.9% | 81% | 27% | +3pp | $529 | $2,645 | — | $45,232 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.24 mid) = $529 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,645/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $17.24) 84% EV / mo +$1,160 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,364/mo median; plan ~$928/mo after 68% keep · $11,727 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.4-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$683 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 810 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $20 below CC-SS $36.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,186 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$45,232 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $23): -$2,765 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,336 (+$6,189 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36,904 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,432, the opportunity cost of earning $2,645/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,312, position total $-52,023 (+$4,502 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $16 | 24 Jul | 6d | 2.5% | 62% | 80% | +5pp | $1,029 | $5,145 | +$2,500 | $42,853 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.51 mid) = $1,029 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,145/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.50) 73% EV / mo +$1,267 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,708/mo median; plan ~$1,161/mo after 68% keep · $14,574 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.5-6.6], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.65–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,873 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $21 below CC-SS $36.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,186 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16): -$42,853 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $23): -$5,530 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,722 (+$5,803 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-36,904 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,818, the opportunity cost of earning $5,145/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,578, position total $-53,275 (+$3,250 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.018 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,186 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-36,904
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 23/25 | $2,645 | $2,666 | 81% | 84% | +$1,160 | -$45,232 | 0.0% | $-50,336 (vs do-nothing $-13,432) |
| $17 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 24/25 | $2,658 | $2,669 | 74% | 79% | +$823 | -$46,599 | 0.0% | $-50,320 (vs do-nothing $-13,416) |
| $16.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 16/25 | $2,720 | $2,815 | 72% | 79% | +$946 | -$32,090 | 0.0% | $-46,872 (vs do-nothing $-9,968) |
| $16.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 19/25 | $2,675 | $2,738 | 67% | 75% | +$659 | -$37,594 | 0.0% | $-48,228 (vs do-nothing $-11,324) |
| $16.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 21/25 | $2,614 | $2,656 | 65% | 74% | +$575 | -$41,089 | 0.0% | $-48,958 (vs do-nothing $-12,054) |
| $16.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 23/25 | $2,607 | $2,628 | 64% | 74% | +$581 | -$44,565 | 0.0% | $-49,669 (vs do-nothing $-12,765) |
| $16 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 11/25 | $2,695 | $2,842 | 62% | 73% | +$664 | -$22,447 | 0.0% | $-44,142 (vs do-nothing $-7,238) |
| $16 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 15/25 | $2,700 | $2,805 | 60% | 71% | +$520 | -$30,174 | 0.0% | $-46,339 (vs do-nothing $-9,435) |
| $16 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 17/25 | $2,601 | $2,685 | 59% | 71% | +$485 | -$33,789 | 0.0% | $-47,189 (vs do-nothing $-10,285) |
| $16 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 20/25 | $2,667 | $2,719 | 59% | 72% | +$498 | -$39,392 | 0.0% | $-48,644 (vs do-nothing $-11,740) |
| $15.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 17/25 | $2,682 | $2,766 | 53% | 69% | +$427 | -$33,959 | 0.0% | $-47,359 (vs do-nothing $-10,455) |
| $15.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 14/25 | $2,562 | $2,678 | 52% | 68% | +$353 | -$28,247 | 0.0% | $-45,794 (vs do-nothing $-8,890) |
| $15.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 12/25 | $2,742 | $2,878 | 51% | 67% | +$390 | -$24,487 | 0.0% | $-44,800 (vs do-nothing $-7,896) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 8/25 | $2,800 | $2,978 | 49% | 67% | +$450 | -$16,557 | 0.0% | $-42,400 (vs do-nothing $-5,496) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.