25 of 75 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $40.74 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $25,320 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,313/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,432/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,625 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.17 | $862 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 5d | 19 × $17 | 82% | $2,736 | $1,172 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $18 | 24 Jul | 5d | 14.7% | 93% | 15% | +7pp | $275 | $1,650 | -$1,086 | $56,565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $18 14.7% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.11 mid) = $275 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 94% EV / mo +$1,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,253/mo median; plan ~$852/mo after 68% keep · $10,364 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [4.6-7.6], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,149 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $23 below CC-SS $40.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,353 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $18): -$56,565 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,836 ($-211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-44,536 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,400, position total $-51,320 (+$5,305 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 11.5% | 88% | 24% | +2pp | $304 | $1,824 | -$912 | $43,844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $17.50 11.5% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.17 mid) = $304 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,824/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 90% EV / mo +$1,193 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 11% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,184/mo median; plan ~$805/mo after 68% keep · $10,241 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [4.5-7.4], measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$748 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $23 below CC-SS $40.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,353 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17.50): -$43,844 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $23): -$10,624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,739 (+$1,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-44,536 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,203, the opportunity cost of earning $1,824/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,919, position total $-51,821 (+$4,804 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $17 | 24 Jul | 5d | 8.3% | 82% | 26% | +6pp | $456 | $2,736 | — | $44,642 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $17 8.3% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.26 mid) = $456 credit for the 5d cycle → $2,736/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 86% EV / mo +$1,525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,504/mo median; plan ~$1,023/mo after 68% keep · $12,787 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [4.6-7.3], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$566 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 765 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $24 below CC-SS $40.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,353 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17): -$44,642 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $23): -$10,624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,537 (+$1,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-44,536 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,001, the opportunity cost of earning $2,736/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,717, position total $-52,619 (+$4,006 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 5.2% | 72% | 57% | +11pp | $888 | $5,328 | +$2,592 | $57,278 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $16.50 5.2% OTM over spot $15.69 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.39 mid) = $888 credit for the 5d cycle → $5,328/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $16.89) 80% EV / mo +$2,464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,361/mo median; plan ~$1,606/mo after 68% keep · $19,692 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [4.6-7.3], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$365 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,264 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $24 below CC-SS $40.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $16.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,625 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,353 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $16.50): -$57,278 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $23): -$1,771 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,320 ($-2,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-44,536 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,784, the opportunity cost of earning $5,328/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,320, position total $-54,237 (+$2,388 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$56,353 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-44,536
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 19/25 | $2,736 | $2,764 | 82% | 86% | +$1,525 | -$44,642 | 0.0% | $-55,537 (vs do-nothing $-11,001) |
| $17 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 22/25 | $2,695 | $2,709 | 73% | 79% | +$916 | -$51,141 | 0.0% | $-56,724 (vs do-nothing $-12,188) |
| $16.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 12/25 | $2,664 | $2,726 | 72% | 80% | +$1,232 | -$28,639 | 0.0% | $-51,928 (vs do-nothing $-7,392) |
| $17 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 24/25 | $2,691 | $2,695 | 70% | 77% | +$753 | -$55,262 | 0.0% | $-57,304 (vs do-nothing $-12,768) |
| $16.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 17/25 | $2,678 | $2,715 | 66% | 75% | +$742 | -$40,130 | 0.0% | $-54,566 (vs do-nothing $-10,030) |
| $16.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 22/25 | $2,709 | $2,724 | 64% | 74% | +$409 | -$51,603 | 0.0% | $-57,186 (vs do-nothing $-12,650) |
| $16.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 23/25 | $2,733 | $2,743 | 63% | 74% | +$623 | -$53,373 | 0.0% | $-57,186 (vs do-nothing $-12,650) |
| $16 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 9/25 | $2,808 | $2,884 | 60% | 73% | +$899 | -$21,794 | 0.0% | $-50,395 (vs do-nothing $-5,859) |
| $16 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 13/25 | $2,665 | $2,722 | 58% | 72% | +$610 | -$31,091 | 0.0% | $-52,609 (vs do-nothing $-8,073) |
| $16 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 19/25 | $2,718 | $2,747 | 58% | 71% | +$554 | -$44,642 | 0.0% | $-55,537 (vs do-nothing $-11,001) |
| $16 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 17/25 | $2,818 | $2,856 | 58% | 71% | +$537 | -$40,266 | 0.0% | $-54,702 (vs do-nothing $-10,166) |
| $15.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 16/25 | $2,714 | $2,756 | 52% | 69% | +$466 | -$38,025 | 0.0% | $-54,232 (vs do-nothing $-9,696) |
| $15.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 14/25 | $2,807 | $2,859 | 51% | 68% | +$422 | -$33,552 | 0.0% | $-53,300 (vs do-nothing $-8,764) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 11/25 | $2,860 | $2,926 | 50% | 68% | +$492 | -$26,615 | 0.0% | $-51,675 (vs do-nothing $-7,139) |
| $15.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 6/25 | $2,700 | $2,790 | 47% | 67% | +$588 | -$14,692 | 0.0% | $-48,604 (vs do-nothing $-4,068) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.