25 of 75 contracts (2,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $40.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $25,320 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,457/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,462 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.17 | $862 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 25 × $17.50 | 82% | $3,000 | $971 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 21 × $17 | 68% | $3,093 | $703 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 24 × $18 | 24 Jul | 4d | 12.7% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $264 | $1,980 | -$1,020 | $53,113 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $264 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$1,226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,317/mo median; plan ~$895/mo after 68% keep · $10,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.1-6.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,004 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $18): -$53,113 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $24): -$1,622 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,600 ($-138 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,184, the opportunity cost of earning $1,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$984, position total $-50,718 (+$4,744 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $18 | 24 Jul | 4d | 12.7% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $275 | $2,062 | -$938 | $55,326 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $275 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,062/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$1,277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,390/mo median; plan ~$945/mo after 68% keep · $11,297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [4.0-6.6], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,046 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 353 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $19 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $18): -$55,326 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,191 ($-729 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,775, the opportunity cost of earning $2,062/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,025, position total $-50,761 (+$4,701 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 9.5% | 82% | 21% | +4pp | $400 | $3,000 | — | $56,451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $17.50 9.5% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.18 mid) = $400 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$822 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,543/mo median; plan ~$1,049/mo after 68% keep · $12,741 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.5-7.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$884 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 632 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $23 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $17.50): -$56,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,316 ($-1,854 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,150, position total $-51,886 (+$3,576 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 21 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 3.3% | 65% | 72% | +10pp | $819 | $6,142 | +$3,142 | $49,036 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16.50 3.3% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.42 mid) = $819 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,142/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $16.91) 74% EV / mo +$1,401 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~12.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,215/mo median; plan ~$1,506/mo after 68% keep · $18,457 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.9-7.0], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$198 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $21 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,495 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $24 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $16.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16.50): -$49,036 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $24): -$6,488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,389 ($-927 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,973, the opportunity cost of earning $6,142/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,423, position total $-53,151 (+$2,311 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $20 | 31 Jul | 11d | 25.2% | 93% | 14% | +2pp | $300 | $818 | -$2,275 | $50,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $20 25.2% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.14 mid) = $300 credit for the 11d cycle → $818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $20.14) 94% EV / mo +$506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $575/mo median; plan ~$391/mo after 68% keep · $4,737 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.8-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,940 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 67% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.27/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 286 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $21 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $20 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $20.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $20): -$50,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,166 (+$4,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,750, the opportunity cost of earning $818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-49,736 (+$5,726 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 24 × $18 | 31 Jul | 11d | 12.7% | 80% | 42% | +3pp | $744 | $2,029 | -$1,064 | $52,633 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $744 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,029/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $18.35) 83% EV / mo +$520 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $956/mo median; plan ~$650/mo after 68% keep · $8,286 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.0-7.5], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,192 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,035 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $18.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $18): -$52,633 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $24): -$1,622 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,120 (+$342 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,704, the opportunity cost of earning $2,029/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$504, position total $-50,238 (+$5,224 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $17 | 31 Jul | 11d | 6.4% | 68% | 55% | +2pp | $1,134 | $3,093 | — | $47,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $17 6.4% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.57 mid) = $1,134 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,093/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 75% EV / mo +$461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,100/mo median; plan ~$748/mo after 68% keep · $9,590 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.3-7.4], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$466 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,643 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $23 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17): -$47,671 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $24): -$6,488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,024 (+$438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,608, the opportunity cost of earning $3,093/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,058, position total $-51,786 (+$3,676 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 54% | 99% | +5pp | $2,200 | $6,000 | +$2,907 | $58,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 0.2% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.94 mid) = $2,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $16.94) 67% EV / mo +$275 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~13.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,516/mo median; plan ~$1,031/mo after 68% keep · $13,167 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [4.1-6.8], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$408 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,431 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $24 below CC-SS $40.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $16.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,462 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,597 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$58,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,266 ($-3,804 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-41,416 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,850, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,100, position total $-53,836 (+$1,626 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$54,597 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-41,416
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 25/25 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 82% | 85% | +$822 | -$56,451 | 0.0% | $-57,316 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $17 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 15/25 | $3,038 | $3,071 | 76% | 81% | +$1,149 | -$34,456 | 0.0% | $-51,541 (vs do-nothing $-10,125) |
| $17 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 21/25 | $3,093 | $3,106 | 68% | 75% | +$461 | -$47,671 | 0.0% | $-55,024 (vs do-nothing $-13,608) |
| $17 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 24/25 | $3,000 | $3,003 | 66% | 75% | +$262 | -$53,977 | 0.0% | $-56,464 (vs do-nothing $-15,048) |
| $16.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 11/25 | $3,218 | $3,264 | 65% | 74% | +$734 | -$25,686 | 0.0% | $-49,259 (vs do-nothing $-7,843) |
| $16.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 16/25 | $3,011 | $3,041 | 61% | 71% | +$270 | -$36,881 | 0.0% | $-52,344 (vs do-nothing $-10,928) |
| $16 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 24/25 | $3,053 | $3,056 | 55% | 67% | $-608 | -$55,633 | 0.0% | $-58,120 (vs do-nothing $-16,704) |
| $16 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 21/25 | $3,010 | $3,023 | 54% | 67% | $-760 | -$49,099 | 0.0% | $-56,452 (vs do-nothing $-15,036) |
| $16 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 13/25 | $3,120 | $3,160 | 54% | 67% | +$143 | -$30,369 | 0.0% | $-50,698 (vs do-nothing $-9,282) |
| $16 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 7/25 | $3,098 | $3,158 | 53% | 68% | +$464 | -$16,555 | 0.0% | $-46,617 (vs do-nothing $-5,201) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.