75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $36.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $18,102/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,559/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-165,825 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 71 × $17.50 | 82% | $9,053 | $2,974 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 74 × $17.50 | 74% | $9,082 | $2,213 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 15.0% | 92% | 16% | +3pp | $450 | $3,375 | -$5,678 | $137,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18.50 15.0% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $450 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 93% EV / mo +$1,537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,356/mo median; plan ~$1,602/mo after 68% keep · $18,541 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.5-7.0], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,316 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 223 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $18 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18.50): -$137,699 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-145,075 (+$20,750 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,950, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-147,307 (+$18,518 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 47 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 8.8% | 82% | 37% | +4pp | $799 | $5,993 | -$3,060 | $90,475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $799 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,993/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$2,141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,404/mo median; plan ~$2,314/mo after 68% keep · $27,660 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.4-7.1], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,433 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $17.50): -$90,475 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 × $24): -$36,120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-133,970 (+$31,855 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,845, the opportunity cost of earning $5,993/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,995, position total $-151,246 (+$14,579 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 71 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 8.8% | 82% | 24% | +5pp | $1,207 | $9,053 | — | $136,674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 71 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $1,207 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,053/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$3,235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,971/mo median; plan ~$3,381/mo after 68% keep · $39,067 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.8-6.3], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,165 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 71 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 721 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (71 × $17.50): -$136,674 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $24): -$5,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-149,210 (+$16,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,085, the opportunity cost of earning $9,053/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,035, position total $-153,334 (+$12,491 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 58 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.6% | 62% | 78% | +8pp | $2,436 | $18,270 | +$9,217 | $116,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 58 × $16.50 2.6% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.43 mid) = $2,436 credit for the 4d cycle → $18,270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.93) 72% EV / mo +$3,424 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~13.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,060/mo median; plan ~$4,121/mo after 68% keep · $49,288 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.2-6.7], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$162 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 58 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,640 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $20 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $16.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (58 × $16.50): -$116,000 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $24): -$21,930 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-145,305 (+$20,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,180, the opportunity cost of earning $18,270/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,280, position total $-156,553 (+$9,272 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $19.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 21.2% | 90% | 20% | +1pp | $975 | $2,659 | -$6,423 | $129,674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $19.50 21.2% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.14 mid) = $975 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,659/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $19.64) 91% EV / mo +$965 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,666/mo median; plan ~$1,133/mo after 68% keep · $14,276 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.3-7.0], measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,318 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 371 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $20 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $17 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $19.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $19.50): -$129,674 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-137,050 (+$28,775 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,925, the opportunity cost of earning $2,659/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-147,307 (+$18,518 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 65 × $18 | 31 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 79% | 44% | +5pp | $2,210 | $6,027 | -$3,055 | $120,769 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 65 × $18 11.9% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.34 mid) = $2,210 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,027/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $18.34) 83% EV / mo +$1,839 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,874/mo median; plan ~$1,955/mo after 68% keep · $24,970 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.2-7.3], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,824 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 65 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 962 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $19 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $18.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (65 × $18): -$120,769 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $24): -$12,900 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-141,045 (+$24,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,920, the opportunity cost of earning $6,027/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,170, position total $-148,457 (+$17,368 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 74 × $17.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 8.8% | 74% | 45% | +4pp | $3,330 | $9,082 | — | $140,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 74 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.46 mid) = $3,330 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,082/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $17.96) 79% EV / mo +$2,379 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,745/mo median; plan ~$2,547/mo after 68% keep · $31,544 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.5-6.9], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,242 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 74 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,356 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $19 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $17.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (74 × $17.50): -$140,377 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $24): -$1,290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-149,043 (+$16,782 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,918, the opportunity cost of earning $9,082/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,218, position total $-151,523 (+$14,302 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 69 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | -0.5% | 52% | 99+% | · | $6,693 | $18,254 | +$9,172 | $137,654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 69 × $16 0.5% ITM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.99 mid) = $6,693 credit for the 11d cycle → $18,254/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $17.00) 67% EV / mo +$2,232 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,943 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 69 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $21 below CC-SS $36.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $17.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $36.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-165,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,450 − CC assignment net of premium (69 × $16): -$137,654 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $24): -$7,740 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-152,770 (+$13,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-104,125 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,645, the opportunity cost of earning $18,254/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,695, position total $-157,990 (+$7,835 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.014 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$158,450 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-104,125
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 71/75 | $9,053 | $9,074 | 82% | 85% | +$3,235 | -$136,674 | 0.0% | $-149,210 (vs do-nothing $-45,085) |
| $17.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 74/75 | $9,082 | $9,087 | 74% | 79% | +$2,379 | -$140,377 | 0.0% | $-149,043 (vs do-nothing $-44,918) |
| $17 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 45/75 | $9,113 | $9,276 | 73% | 79% | +$2,453 | -$88,425 | 0.0% | $-134,500 (vs do-nothing $-30,375) |
| $17 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 58/75 | $9,175 | $9,267 | 67% | 75% | +$1,869 | -$112,172 | 0.0% | $-141,477 (vs do-nothing $-37,352) |
| $17 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 68/75 | $9,180 | $9,218 | 65% | 74% | +$1,756 | -$129,947 | 0.0% | $-146,353 (vs do-nothing $-42,228) |
| $17 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 75/75 | $9,090 | $9,090 | 64% | 74% | +$1,745 | -$141,824 | 0.0% | $-149,200 (vs do-nothing $-45,075) |
| $16.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 29/75 | $9,135 | $9,386 | 62% | 72% | +$1,712 | -$58,000 | 0.0% | $-124,715 (vs do-nothing $-20,590) |
| $16.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 44/75 | $9,120 | $9,289 | 60% | 71% | +$1,527 | -$86,504 | 0.0% | $-133,869 (vs do-nothing $-29,744) |
| $16.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 55/75 | $9,167 | $9,276 | 59% | 71% | +$1,500 | -$106,810 | 0.0% | $-139,985 (vs do-nothing $-35,860) |
| $16.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 64/75 | $9,139 | $9,199 | 59% | 71% | +$1,428 | -$123,072 | 0.0% | $-144,637 (vs do-nothing $-40,512) |
| $16 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 54/75 | $9,137 | $9,251 | 53% | 69% | +$1,191 | -$105,354 | 0.0% | $-139,819 (vs do-nothing $-35,694) |
| $16 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 45/75 | $9,075 | $9,239 | 53% | 68% | +$1,151 | -$88,695 | 0.0% | $-134,770 (vs do-nothing $-30,645) |
| $16 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 35/75 | $9,259 | $9,477 | 52% | 67% | +$1,132 | -$69,825 | 0.0% | $-128,800 (vs do-nothing $-24,675) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 19/75 | $9,120 | $9,425 | 50% | 66% | +$1,186 | -$38,532 | 0.0% | $-118,147 (vs do-nothing $-14,022) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.