75 contracts (7,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $37.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $75,959 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 7500 |
| Normal income ref | $15,485/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,331/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-164,888 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 75 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 60 × $18 | 88% | $7,800 | $3,217 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 70 × $18 | 77% | $7,770 | $1,791 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 74 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +5pp | $518 | $5,180 | -$2,620 | $136,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 74 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $518 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$3,766 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,928/mo median; plan ~$2,671/mo after 68% keep · $30,929 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.2-6.7], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,136 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 74 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $19 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (74 × $18.50): -$136,916 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $24): -$1,304 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-144,188 (+$20,700 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,404, the opportunity cost of earning $5,180/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,106, position total $-146,974 (+$17,913 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +5pp | $525 | $5,250 | -$2,550 | $138,766 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $525 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$3,817 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,970/mo median; plan ~$2,700/mo after 68% keep · $33,039 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [3.7-7.5], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,178 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 228 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $19 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $18.50): -$138,766 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-144,734 (+$20,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,950, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,675, position total $-147,520 (+$17,367 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 60 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 88% | 16% | +5pp | $780 | $7,800 | — | $113,653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 60 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.14 mid) = $780 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $18.14) 90% EV / mo +$5,050 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,182/mo median; plan ~$3,523/mo after 68% keep · $42,840 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.7-6.8], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,102 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 60 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 477 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $19 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $18.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (60 × $18): -$113,653 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $24): -$19,563 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-139,184 (+$25,704 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,400, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,780, position total $-141,970 (+$22,917 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 71 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 80% | 42% | +14pp | $1,562 | $15,620 | +$7,820 | $137,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 71 × $17.50 6.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $1,562 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.73) 84% EV / mo +$8,204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,276/mo median; plan ~$5,628/mo after 68% keep · $64,178 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.6-6.7], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,754 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 71 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 767 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $20 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $17.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (71 × $17.50): -$137,400 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $24): -$5,217 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-148,585 (+$16,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,801, the opportunity cost of earning $15,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,434, position total $-151,371 (+$13,516 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 75 × $19.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 18.3% | 90% | 20% | +2pp | $1,050 | $3,150 | -$4,620 | $130,741 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $19.50 18.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.15 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $19.65) 91% EV / mo +$1,658 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,110/mo median; plan ~$1,435/mo after 68% keep · $17,493 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.5-7.1], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,980 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $18 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $19.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $19.50): -$130,741 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-136,709 (+$28,179 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,925, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,650, position total $-139,495 (+$25,392 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 66 × $18.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.3% | 83% | 36% | +3pp | $1,716 | $5,148 | -$2,622 | $120,860 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 66 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $1,716 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,148/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $18.77) 85% EV / mo +$2,086 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,804/mo median; plan ~$1,907/mo after 68% keep · $23,902 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.2-7.5], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,318 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 66 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 796 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $19 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $18.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (66 × $18.50): -$120,860 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $24): -$11,738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-138,566 (+$26,322 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,782, the opportunity cost of earning $5,148/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,300, position total $-141,352 (+$23,535 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 70 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 77% | 38% | +4pp | $2,590 | $7,770 | — | $130,915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 70 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $2,590 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $18.38) 82% EV / mo +$2,850 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,604/mo median; plan ~$2,451/mo after 68% keep · $31,441 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [5.2-7.3], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,605 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 70 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,151 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $19 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $18.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (70 × $18): -$130,915 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $24): -$6,521 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-143,404 (+$21,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,620, the opportunity cost of earning $7,770/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,230, position total $-146,190 (+$18,697 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 75 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.2% | 62% | 80% | +5pp | $5,175 | $15,525 | +$7,755 | $145,366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 75 × $17 3.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.70 mid) = $5,175 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $17.70) 73% EV / mo +$4,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,866/mo median; plan ~$3,309/mo after 68% keep · $42,037 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.2-7.0], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$82 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 75 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,962 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $20 below CC-SS $37.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $17.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $37.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-164,888 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$158,920 − CC assignment net of premium (75 × $17): -$145,366 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-151,334 (+$13,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-103,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,550, the opportunity cost of earning $15,525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,275, position total $-154,120 (+$10,767 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.029 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$158,920 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-103,784
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 60/75 | $7,800 | $7,879 | 88% | 90% | +$5,050 | -$113,653 | 0.0% | $-139,184 (vs do-nothing $-35,400) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 36/75 | $7,920 | $8,126 | 80% | 84% | +$4,160 | -$69,668 | 0.0% | $-126,500 (vs do-nothing $-22,716) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 70/75 | $7,770 | $7,796 | 77% | 82% | +$2,850 | -$130,915 | 0.0% | $-143,404 (vs do-nothing $-39,620) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 72/75 | $7,751 | $7,766 | 72% | 78% | +$2,031 | -$132,928 | 0.0% | $-142,808 (vs do-nothing $-39,024) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 51/75 | $7,803 | $7,930 | 70% | 77% | +$2,456 | -$97,217 | 0.0% | $-134,486 (vs do-nothing $-30,702) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 22/75 | $7,920 | $8,201 | 67% | 77% | +$3,089 | -$43,367 | 0.0% | $-118,458 (vs do-nothing $-14,674) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 57/75 | $7,745 | $7,841 | 67% | 75% | +$1,848 | -$107,172 | 0.0% | $-136,616 (vs do-nothing $-32,832) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 64/75 | $7,760 | $7,818 | 65% | 75% | +$1,840 | -$119,054 | 0.0% | $-139,368 (vs do-nothing $-35,584) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 38/75 | $7,866 | $8,062 | 62% | 73% | +$2,057 | -$73,652 | 0.0% | $-127,876 (vs do-nothing $-24,092) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 47/75 | $7,879 | $8,028 | 60% | 72% | +$1,596 | -$89,874 | 0.0% | $-132,360 (vs do-nothing $-28,576) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 53/75 | $7,751 | $7,868 | 60% | 72% | +$1,652 | -$100,182 | 0.0% | $-134,842 (vs do-nothing $-31,058) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 45/75 | $7,819 | $7,978 | 54% | 70% | +$1,424 | -$86,320 | 0.0% | $-131,414 (vs do-nothing $-27,630) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 38/75 | $7,846 | $8,042 | 54% | 69% | +$1,349 | -$73,728 | 0.0% | $-127,952 (vs do-nothing $-24,168) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 29/75 | $7,917 | $8,161 | 53% | 69% | +$1,632 | -$57,020 | 0.0% | $-122,982 (vs do-nothing $-19,198) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 14/75 | $7,980 | $8,303 | 52% | 70% | +$2,141 | -$28,003 | 0.0% | $-113,528 (vs do-nothing $-9,744) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 75 contracts at the conservative CC.