150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $21.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $16,750/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-67,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 109 × $17 | 75% | $14,306 | $3,853 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.0% | 90% | 20% | $1,800 | $6,750 | -$7,556 | $44,548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18.50 17.0% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 91% EV / mo +$3,278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,567 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $3 below CC-SS $21.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,029 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18.50): -$44,548 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,720 (+$33,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,579 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,298, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$750, position total $-29,340 (+$37,860 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 140 × $18 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.9% | 87% | 26% | $2,520 | $9,450 | -$4,856 | $47,739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 140 × $18 13.9% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $18.20) 89% EV / mo +$5,184 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,106 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,894 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 140 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $4 below CC-SS $21.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $18.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,029 − CC assignment net of premium (140 × $18): -$47,739 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $22): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,860 (+$30,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,579 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,439, the opportunity cost of earning $9,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,860, position total $-35,400 (+$31,800 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 109 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.5% | 75% | 40% | $3,815 | $14,306 | — | $46,215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 109 × $17 7.5% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $3,815 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,306/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 80% EV / mo +$4,862 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,683 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,107 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 109 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,208 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $5 below CC-SS $21.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,029 − CC assignment net of premium (109 × $17): -$46,215 + Conservative CC premium (41 × $22): +$205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,181 (+$32,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,579 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,760, the opportunity cost of earning $14,306/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,388, position total $-42,773 (+$24,427 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 112 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 1.2% | 56% | 92% | $7,616 | $28,560 | +$14,254 | $54,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 112 × $16 1.2% OTM over spot $15.81 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $7,616 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 70% EV / mo +$5,002 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~20.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $31,537 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$921 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 112 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,223 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $6 below CC-SS $21.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$78,029 − CC assignment net of premium (112 × $16): -$54,991 + Conservative CC premium (38 × $22): +$190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,972 (+$23,228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,579 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,551, the opportunity cost of earning $28,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,288, position total $-50,688 (+$16,512 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$78,029 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,579
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 109/150 | $14,306 | $14,716 | 75% | 80% | +$4,862 | -$46,215 | 0.0% | $-35,181 (vs do-nothing $-46,760) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 119/150 | $14,280 | $14,590 | 70% | 77% | +$3,789 | -$47,480 | 0.0% | $-36,496 (vs do-nothing $-48,075) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 76/150 | $14,250 | $14,990 | 66% | 75% | +$3,841 | -$34,883 | 0.0% | $-23,685 (vs do-nothing $-35,263) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 94/150 | $14,288 | $14,848 | 63% | 74% | +$3,178 | -$40,701 | 0.0% | $-29,592 (vs do-nothing $-41,171) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 56/150 | $14,280 | $15,220 | 56% | 70% | +$2,501 | -$27,495 | 0.0% | $-16,197 (vs do-nothing $-27,775) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 75/150 | $14,250 | $15,000 | 56% | 70% | +$2,502 | -$34,799 | 0.0% | $-23,596 (vs do-nothing $-35,174) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 60/150 | $14,280 | $15,180 | 48% | 67% | +$2,008 | -$29,399 | 0.0% | $-18,121 (vs do-nothing $-29,699) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 42/150 | $14,490 | $15,570 | 46% | 65% | +$1,771 | -$21,714 | 0.0% | $-10,345 (vs do-nothing $-21,924) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.