FORTRESS FIGHT: BMNR-LC23-1782 @ $22.04

BE SS: $36.42 | CC-SS: $25.94 | 150 contracts (15,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

BMNR-LC23-1782BBC @ $22.04 UNDERWATER $14.38 (39.5% below BE SS)

150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $36.42 | CC-SS: $25.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $23 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.155/sh)

SP: $18 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.019/sh)

HP: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $12.331/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$96,300	(ND $13.42 + SW $-7) x 15000
Normal income ref	$40,200/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-32,175	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,100/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$40,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $201,300

ML VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $96,300

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $25.94 (probe: $26C 15d) still earns $8,700/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-2,416

Hole (after banked)

$34,591

was $32,175 · -8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

Full leg history (6) and event log · CLOSED 5 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-23 03:12

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
EXPIRED	88x $21C 7 Aug 2026	$0.20	$1,760	2026-07-28	2026-08-10	$0.00	$1,760	U6241782	execution
CLOSED	8x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026	$0.17	$138	2026-07-18	2026-07-20	$0.59	$-334	U6241782	seed
CLOSED	40x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026	$0.17	$690	2026-07-18	2026-07-20	$0.59	$-1,670	U6241782	seed
CLOSED	18x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026	$0.17	$310	2026-07-18	2026-07-20	$0.59	$-752	U6241782	seed
CLOSED	17x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026	$0.17	$293	2026-07-18	2026-07-20	$0.59	$-710	U6241782	seed
CLOSED	17x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026	$0.17	$293	2026-07-18	2026-07-20	$0.59	$-710	U6241782	seed

Event log

2026-08-10 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 88x $21C: banked $1,760

2026-07-28 SOLD 1x $21C 20260807 @ $0.20 (extends leg to 88)

2026-07-28 SOLD 87x $21C 20260807 @ $0.20 (new leg)

2026-07-20 CLOSED 8x $16.5C 20260724: banked $-334

2026-07-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 17x $16.5C: banked $-710 (8 remain)

2026-07-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 17x $16.5C: banked $-710 (25 remain)

2026-07-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 18x $16.5C: banked $-752 (42 remain)

2026-07-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 40x $16.5C: banked $-1,670 (60 remain)

2026-07-18 TRACKING 100x $16.5C 20260724 @ $0.17 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 20 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $29.23 (+33%) · daily UBB $28.46 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-20: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $25.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 150 × $26 13 Nov 2026 (22d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $26)

83%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$7,200

Income / mo

$9,818

🛡 Safer · sell 150 × $27 6 Nov 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $27)

91%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$3,000

Income / mo

$6,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (150 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$27	13 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.21/sh	+$3,190 cycle +$6,190 [+$2,562…+$6,302] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
SS $36 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$27	13 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.19/sh	+$2,908 cycle +$5,908 [+$2,248…+$6,001] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	13 Nov 2026	14d left	-$0.02/sh	-$294 cycle +$2,706 [-$1,523…+$2,175] · 52% credit	70% surv 58%
budget: banked $3,000 debit $294 (10% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,706 cash · rolled 150 ct earn ≈ $39,777/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 150 × $35 6 Nov 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $35)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$150

Income / mo

$300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (150 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$35	13 Nov 2026	14d left	-$0.15/sh	-$2,273 cycle -$2,123	67% surv 52%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.521 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,497 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,528

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$23.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.46	117/150	$5,382	$20,182	$20,248	73%hist 82%	56%hist 44%	79%	+$5,312	-$23,193	11.5%	0.6mo	$-24,839 (vs do-nothing $-23,310)
$23.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.78	129/150	$10,062	$20,124	$20,166	68%hist 64%	67%hist 56%	76%	+$3,694	-$21,444	10.7%	0.5mo	$-23,101 (vs do-nothing $-21,573)
$23.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.05	141/150	$14,805	$20,189	$20,207	67%hist 64%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$3,919	-$19,632	9.8%	0.5mo	$-21,301 (vs do-nothing $-19,773)
$23	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.62	87/150	$5,394	$20,228	$20,354	67%hist 64%	69%hist 56%	75%	+$4,676	-$20,204	10.0%	0.5mo	$-21,820 (vs do-nothing $-20,291)
$23	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.97	104/150	$10,088	$20,176	$20,268	64%hist 64%	77%hist 68%	73%	+$3,904	-$20,512	10.2%	0.5mo	$-22,145 (vs do-nothing $-20,616)
$23	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.24	119/150	$14,756	$20,122	$20,184	63%hist 64%	80%hist 78%	73%	+$3,689	-$20,258	10.1%	0.5mo	$-21,905 (vs do-nothing $-20,377)
$22.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.81	67/150	$5,427	$20,351	$20,517	59%hist 68%	85%hist 78%	71%	+$3,922	-$17,637	8.8%	0.4mo	$-19,232 (vs do-nothing $-17,704)
$22.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.15	88/150	$10,120	$20,240	$20,364	58%hist 68%	89%hist 78%	70%	+$2,942	-$20,172	10.0%	0.5mo	$-21,789 (vs do-nothing $-20,260)
$22.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.44	103/150	$14,832	$20,225	$20,319	58%hist 68%	90%hist 90%	71%	+$3,301	-$20,624	10.2%	0.5mo	$-22,255 (vs do-nothing $-20,727)
$22	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.67	89/150	$14,863	$20,268	$20,390	53%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	69%	+$2,972	-$20,224	10.0%	0.5mo	$-21,841 (vs do-nothing $-20,313)
$22	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.38	73/150	$10,074	$20,148	$20,302	53%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$2,545	-$18,705	9.3%	0.5mo	$-20,306 (vs do-nothing $-18,778)
$22	8d	30 Oct 2026	$1.04	52/150	$5,408	$20,280	$20,476	52%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$3,218	-$15,092	7.5%	0.4mo	$-16,672 (vs do-nothing $-15,144)

52 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$35	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	150/150	$150	$300	$300	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$243	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	150/150	$150	$562	$562	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$199	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	150/150	$150	$562	$562	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$275	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	150/150	$750	$1,023	$1,023	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$770	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-928 (vs do-nothing +$600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	150/150	$450	$900	$900	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$611	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,228 (vs do-nothing +$300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	150/150	$450	$900	$900	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$531	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,228 (vs do-nothing +$300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.02	150/150	$300	$1,125	$1,125	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$519	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,378 (vs do-nothing +$150)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	150/150	$150	$300	$300	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	$-166	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	150/150	$600	$818	$818	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$392	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,078 (vs do-nothing +$450)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.03	150/150	$450	$1,687	$1,687	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$982	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,228 (vs do-nothing +$300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	150/150	$600	$1,200	$1,200	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$619	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,078 (vs do-nothing +$450)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	150/150	$150	$562	$562	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	97%	$-386	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,528 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	150/150	$1,200	$1,636	$1,636	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$1,042	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-478 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	150/150	$450	$900	$900	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$180	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,228 (vs do-nothing +$300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.09	150/150	$1,350	$1,841	$1,841	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,128	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-328 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.03	150/150	$450	$1,687	$1,687	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$463	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,228 (vs do-nothing +$300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.06	150/150	$900	$1,800	$1,800	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$911	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-778 (vs do-nothing +$750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	150/150	$750	$2,812	$2,812	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,705	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-928 (vs do-nothing +$600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.10	150/150	$1,500	$2,045	$2,045	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$1,185	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-178 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.07	150/150	$1,050	$2,100	$2,100	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$1,003	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-628 (vs do-nothing +$900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.11	150/150	$1,650	$2,250	$2,250	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,206	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-28 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.07	150/150	$1,050	$3,938	$3,938	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$2,448	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-628 (vs do-nothing +$900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.10	150/150	$1,500	$3,000	$3,000	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	95%	+$1,644	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-178 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.14	150/150	$2,100	$2,864	$2,864	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$1,589	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$422 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.10	150/150	$1,500	$3,000	$3,000	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$1,273	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-178 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.08	150/150	$1,200	$4,500	$4,500	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$2,408	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-478 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.04	150/150	$600	$2,250	$2,250	94%hist 95%	13%hist 14%	94%	$-1,327	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-1,078 (vs do-nothing +$450)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.14	150/150	$2,100	$4,200	$4,200	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$2,182	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$422 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.19	150/150	$2,850	$3,886	$3,886	93%hist 95%	15%hist 14%	94%	+$1,971	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,172 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.11	150/150	$1,650	$6,188	$6,188	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-28 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.15	150/150	$2,250	$4,500	$4,500	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$1,877	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$572 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.22	150/150	$3,300	$4,500	$4,500	92%hist 95%	17%hist 14%	93%	+$2,145	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,622 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.26	150/150	$3,900	$5,318	$5,318	91%hist 95%	20%hist 14%	91%	+$2,420	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,222 (vs do-nothing +$3,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	150/150	$3,000	$6,000	$6,000	91%hist 95%	20%hist 14%	91%	+$2,642	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,322 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.14	150/150	$2,100	$7,875	$7,875	90%hist 95%	20%hist 14%	91%	+$3,648	-$4,535	2.3%	0.1mo	$-6,213 (vs do-nothing $-4,685)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.23	150/150	$3,450	$6,900	$6,900	89%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$2,881	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,772 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.29	150/150	$4,350	$5,932	$5,932	89%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$2,366	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,672 (vs do-nothing +$4,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.20	150/150	$3,000	$11,250	$11,250	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$5,335	-$11,135	5.5%	0.3mo	$-12,813 (vs do-nothing $-11,285)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.35	150/150	$5,250	$7,159	$7,159	87%hist 86%	27%hist 24%	89%	+$2,775	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,572 (vs do-nothing +$5,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.29	150/150	$4,350	$8,700	$8,700	87%hist 86%	28%hist 24%	88%	+$3,487	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,672 (vs do-nothing +$4,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.42	150/150	$6,300	$8,591	$8,591	85%hist 86%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$3,209	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,622 (vs do-nothing +$6,150)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.37	150/150	$5,550	$11,100	$11,100	84%hist 86%	33%hist 31%	86%	+$4,340	-$1,085	0.5%	0.0mo	$-2,763 (vs do-nothing $-1,235)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.26	150/150	$3,900	$14,625	$14,625	84%hist 86%	34%hist 31%	86%	+$5,753	-$17,735	8.8%	0.4mo	$-19,413 (vs do-nothing $-17,885)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.48	150/150	$7,200	$9,818	$9,818	83%hist 86%	36%hist 31%	85%	+$3,225	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,522 (vs do-nothing +$7,050)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.43	150/150	$6,450	$12,900	$12,900	81%hist 86%	40%hist 41%	84%	+$3,788	-$7,685	3.8%	0.2mo	$-9,363 (vs do-nothing $-7,835)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.56	150/150	$8,400	$11,455	$11,455	80%hist 86%	42%hist 41%	83%	+$3,399	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$87 (vs do-nothing +$1,615)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.35	150/150	$5,250	$19,688	$19,688	79%hist 82%	44%hist 41%	83%	+$6,464	-$23,885	11.9%	0.6mo	$-25,563 (vs do-nothing $-24,035)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.66	150/150	$9,900	$13,500	$13,500	77%hist 82%	48%hist 41%	81%	+$3,689	-$4,235	2.1%	0.1mo	$-5,913 (vs do-nothing $-4,385)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.52	150/150	$7,800	$15,600	$15,600	77%hist 82%	48%hist 41%	81%	+$4,169	-$13,835	6.9%	0.3mo	$-15,513 (vs do-nothing $-13,985)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.78	150/150	$11,700	$15,955	$15,955	74%hist 82%	55%hist 44%	79%	+$4,048	-$9,935	4.9%	0.2mo	$-11,613 (vs do-nothing $-10,085)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.65	150/150	$9,750	$19,500	$19,500	73%hist 82%	56%hist 44%	79%	+$4,779	-$19,385	9.6%	0.5mo	$-21,063 (vs do-nothing $-19,535)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.91	150/150	$13,650	$18,614	$18,614	71%hist 82%	63%hist 56%	77%	+$4,224	-$15,485	7.7%	0.4mo	$-17,163 (vs do-nothing $-15,635)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-23 03:21