150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $21.35 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $33,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $14,000/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-67,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 126 × $17 | 78% | $16,538 | $4,887 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.7% | 92% | 17% | $1,800 | $6,750 | -$9,788 | $40,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18.50 18.7% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 93% EV / mo +$4,182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,288 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,096 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 301 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $3 below CC-SS $21.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,709 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18.50): -$40,893 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,384 (+$36,816 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,259 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,643, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$750, position total $-26,370 (+$40,830 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 117 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.3% | 85% | 32% | $2,925 | $10,969 | -$5,569 | $42,076 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $17.50 12.3% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $2,925 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,969/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $17.77) 87% EV / mo +$6,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,511 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,852 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 692 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $4 below CC-SS $21.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $17.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,709 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $17.50): -$42,076 + Conservative CC premium (33 × $22): +$165 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,402 (+$35,798 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,259 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,661, the opportunity cost of earning $10,969/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,764, position total $-36,219 (+$30,981 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 126 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 78% | 34% | $4,410 | $16,538 | — | $50,352 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 126 × $17 9.0% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $4,410 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,538/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 83% EV / mo +$7,814 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $30,626 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,772 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 126 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,015 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $21.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,709 − CC assignment net of premium (126 × $17): -$50,352 + Conservative CC premium (24 × $22): +$120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,723 (+$27,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,259 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,982, the opportunity cost of earning $16,538/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,632, position total $-42,132 (+$25,068 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 130 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 61% | 82% | $8,840 | $33,150 | +$16,613 | $60,661 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 130 × $16 2.6% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $8,840 credit for the 8d cycle → $33,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 74% EV / mo +$10,699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $41,938 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$77 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 130 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,953 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $21.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-67,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,709 − CC assignment net of premium (130 × $16): -$60,661 + Conservative CC premium (20 × $22): +$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,052 (+$17,148 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,259 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,311, the opportunity cost of earning $33,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,870, position total $-51,390 (+$15,810 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$77,709 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,259
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 126/150 | $16,538 | $16,778 | 78% | 83% | +$7,814 | -$50,352 | 0.0% | $-39,723 (vs do-nothing $-50,982) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 138/150 | $16,560 | $16,680 | 73% | 80% | +$6,272 | -$51,698 | 0.0% | $-41,129 (vs do-nothing $-52,388) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 88/150 | $16,500 | $17,120 | 70% | 79% | +$6,663 | -$38,247 | 0.0% | $-27,428 (vs do-nothing $-38,687) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 109/150 | $16,568 | $16,978 | 67% | 76% | +$5,539 | -$44,540 | 0.0% | $-33,826 (vs do-nothing $-45,085) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 127/150 | $16,625 | $16,855 | 65% | 75% | +$4,391 | -$49,355 | 0.0% | $-38,731 (vs do-nothing $-49,990) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 65/150 | $16,575 | $17,425 | 61% | 74% | +$5,349 | -$30,330 | 0.0% | $-19,396 (vs do-nothing $-30,655) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 87/150 | $16,530 | $17,160 | 60% | 73% | +$4,712 | -$38,247 | 0.0% | $-27,423 (vs do-nothing $-38,682) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 105/150 | $16,609 | $17,059 | 59% | 72% | +$3,827 | -$43,955 | 0.0% | $-33,221 (vs do-nothing $-44,480) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 87/150 | $16,609 | $17,239 | 53% | 70% | +$3,371 | -$38,682 | 0.0% | $-27,858 (vs do-nothing $-39,117) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 70/150 | $16,660 | $17,460 | 52% | 70% | +$4,081 | -$32,594 | 0.0% | $-21,685 (vs do-nothing $-32,944) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 48/150 | $16,560 | $17,580 | 50% | 70% | +$4,307 | -$23,646 | 0.0% | $-12,627 (vs do-nothing $-23,886) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.