150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $25,650/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $14,313/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-71,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 132 × $17 | 77% | $12,870 | $2,599 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.6% | 91% | 19% | $1,050 | $3,938 | -$8,933 | $32,082 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18.50 18.6% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.62) 92% EV / mo +$705 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.5] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,082 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,500 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,399 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18.50): -$32,082 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,608 (+$45,317 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,382, the opportunity cost of earning $3,938/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,500, position total $-26,944 (+$44,981 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 133 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 83% | 35% | $2,261 | $8,479 | -$4,391 | $40,416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 133 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $2,261 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.71) 85% EV / mo +$1,701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,279 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,749 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 133 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 734 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,399 − CC assignment net of premium (133 × $17.50): -$40,416 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $22): +$34 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,908 (+$37,017 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,682, the opportunity cost of earning $8,479/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,300, position total $-38,710 (+$33,215 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 132 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 77% | 35% | $3,432 | $12,870 | — | $45,524 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 132 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $3,432 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $17.29) 81% EV / mo +$2,478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,679 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,290 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 132 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,064 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $17.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,399 − CC assignment net of premium (132 × $17): -$45,524 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $22): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,014 (+$31,911 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-45,788, the opportunity cost of earning $12,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,612, position total $-44,020 (+$27,905 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 132 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.5% | 60% | 83% | $6,864 | $25,740 | +$12,870 | $55,292 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 132 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $6,864 credit for the 8d cycle → $25,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 71% EV / mo +$1,914 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~15.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,403 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$404 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 132 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,998 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $20.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,399 − CC assignment net of premium (132 × $16): -$55,292 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $22): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,782 (+$22,143 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,774 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,556, the opportunity cost of earning $25,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,380, position total $-53,788 (+$18,137 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.011 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$77,399 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,774
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 132/150 | $12,870 | $12,942 | 77% | 81% | +$2,478 | -$45,524 | 0.0% | $-40,014 (vs do-nothing $-45,788) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 140/150 | $12,880 | $12,920 | 72% | 78% | +$2,032 | -$45,483 | 0.0% | $-39,989 (vs do-nothing $-45,763) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 95/150 | $12,825 | $13,045 | 70% | 76% | +$1,384 | -$36,563 | 0.0% | $-30,980 (vs do-nothing $-36,753) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 113/150 | $12,882 | $13,030 | 66% | 74% | +$1,021 | -$41,118 | 0.0% | $-35,570 (vs do-nothing $-41,344) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 129/150 | $12,841 | $12,925 | 65% | 74% | +$228 | -$44,876 | 0.0% | $-39,360 (vs do-nothing $-45,134) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 66/150 | $12,870 | $13,206 | 60% | 71% | +$957 | -$27,646 | 0.0% | $-22,004 (vs do-nothing $-27,778) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 87/150 | $12,876 | $13,128 | 59% | 70% | +$664 | -$34,528 | 0.0% | $-28,929 (vs do-nothing $-34,702) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 106/150 | $12,865 | $13,041 | 59% | 72% | $-212 | -$40,479 | 0.0% | $-34,917 (vs do-nothing $-40,691) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 84/150 | $12,944 | $13,208 | 53% | 68% | +$11 | -$34,262 | 0.0% | $-28,656 (vs do-nothing $-34,430) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 67/150 | $12,864 | $13,196 | 52% | 67% | +$487 | -$28,467 | 0.0% | $-22,827 (vs do-nothing $-28,601) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 49/150 | $13,046 | $13,450 | 50% | 65% | +$169 | -$22,044 | 0.0% | $-16,368 (vs do-nothing $-22,142) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.