150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,054/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $12,664/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-75,675 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 104 × $16.50 | 73% | $15,154 | $4,579 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.9% | 91% | 19% | +6pp | $1,650 | $7,071 | -$8,083 | $41,723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18 15.9% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.12) 92% EV / mo +$3,933 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,539/mo median; plan ~$3,086/mo after 68% keep · $22,202 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,407 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-75,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$81,142 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18): -$41,723 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,256 (+$39,419 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,617 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,873, the opportunity cost of earning $7,071/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,250, position total $-36,524 (+$39,151 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 137 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.7% | 87% | 27% | +6pp | $2,329 | $9,981 | -$5,173 | $44,135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 137 × $17.50 12.7% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $2,329 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,981/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 89% EV / mo +$5,229 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,034/mo median; plan ~$4,103/mo after 68% keep · $22,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,713 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 137 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 486 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-75,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$81,142 − CC assignment net of premium (137 × $17.50): -$44,135 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $23): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,655 (+$37,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,617 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,272, the opportunity cost of earning $9,981/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,563, position total $-41,824 (+$33,851 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 104 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.3% | 73% | 43% | +10pp | $3,536 | $15,154 | — | $42,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 104 × $16.50 6.3% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid) = $3,536 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,154/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $16.86) 79% EV / mo +$5,237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,579/mo median; plan ~$4,474/mo after 68% keep · $32,228 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-4.2], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,220 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 104 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,286 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $4 below CC-SS $20.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $16.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-75,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$81,142 − CC assignment net of premium (104 × $16.50): -$42,136 + Conservative CC premium (46 × $23): +$46 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,623 (+$39,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,617 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,240, the opportunity cost of earning $15,154/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,928, position total $-47,156 (+$28,519 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 144 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 63% | 76% | +15pp | $7,056 | $30,240 | +$15,086 | $63,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 144 × $16 3.1% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $7,056 credit for the 7d cycle → $30,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $16.53) 74% EV / mo +$8,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,599/mo median; plan ~$7,208/mo after 68% keep · $35,358 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$673 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 144 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.68–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,821 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $20.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-75,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$81,142 − CC assignment net of premium (144 × $16): -$63,383 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,909 (+$17,766 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,617 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,527, the opportunity cost of earning $30,240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,248, position total $-59,516 (+$16,159 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.008 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$81,142 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,617
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 104/150 | $15,154 | $15,253 | 73% | 79% | +$5,237 | -$42,136 | 0.0% | $-36,623 (vs do-nothing $-42,240) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 124/150 | $15,146 | $15,201 | 68% | 76% | +$3,519 | -$47,387 | 0.0% | $-41,894 (vs do-nothing $-47,511) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 135/150 | $15,043 | $15,075 | 66% | 75% | +$3,554 | -$48,756 | 0.0% | $-43,274 (vs do-nothing $-48,891) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 147/150 | $15,120 | $15,126 | 65% | 75% | +$3,699 | -$50,444 | 0.0% | $-44,974 (vs do-nothing $-50,591) |
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 72/150 | $15,120 | $15,287 | 63% | 74% | +$4,009 | -$31,691 | 0.0% | $-26,146 (vs do-nothing $-31,763) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 94/150 | $15,107 | $15,227 | 61% | 72% | +$3,009 | -$38,931 | 0.0% | $-33,407 (vs do-nothing $-39,025) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 110/150 | $15,086 | $15,171 | 60% | 72% | +$2,962 | -$43,247 | 0.0% | $-37,740 (vs do-nothing $-43,357) |
| $16 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 124/150 | $15,146 | $15,201 | 60% | 72% | +$3,151 | -$46,519 | 0.0% | $-41,026 (vs do-nothing $-46,643) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 105/150 | $15,075 | $15,171 | 54% | 69% | +$2,269 | -$42,541 | 0.0% | $-37,029 (vs do-nothing $-42,646) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 91/150 | $15,080 | $15,206 | 53% | 69% | +$2,232 | -$38,507 | 0.0% | $-32,981 (vs do-nothing $-38,598) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 74/150 | $15,223 | $15,386 | 53% | 69% | +$2,346 | -$32,794 | 0.0% | $-27,250 (vs do-nothing $-32,868) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 51/150 | $15,300 | $15,512 | 51% | 68% | +$2,987 | -$23,927 | 0.0% | $-18,361 (vs do-nothing $-23,978) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.