150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $30.29 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,446/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $13,179/mo (info only, already in marks) |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 145 × $17 | 80% | $14,293 | $4,747 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.6% | 90% | 20% | · | $1,650 | $7,071 | -$7,221 | $182,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 91% EV / mo +$3,685 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,169 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $12 below CC-SS $30.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $30.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$198,652 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18): -$182,700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $15,952 (+$15,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $119,453 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-103,500, the opportunity cost of earning $7,071/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,250, position total $33,398 (+$33,398 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 137 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.4% | 86% | 28% | · | $2,192 | $9,394 | -$4,899 | $173,031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 137 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $2,192 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $17.67) 88% EV / mo +$4,399 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,639 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 137 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 511 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $13 below CC-SS $30.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $30.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$198,652 − CC assignment net of premium (137 × $17.50): -$173,031 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $25): -$6,864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,758 (+$18,758 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $119,453 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,695, the opportunity cost of earning $9,394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,700, position total $27,961 (+$27,961 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 145 × $17 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.1% | 80% | 28% | · | $3,335 | $14,293 | — | $189,370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 145 × $17 9.1% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $3,335 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,293/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 84% EV / mo +$5,576 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,716 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 145 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 830 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $13 below CC-SS $30.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $30.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$198,652 − CC assignment net of premium (145 × $17): -$189,370 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $25): -$2,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,643 (+$6,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $119,453 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-112,810, the opportunity cost of earning $14,293/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,735, position total $20,918 (+$20,918 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 136 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 62% | 79% | · | $6,664 | $28,560 | +$14,267 | $187,680 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 136 × $16 2.7% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $6,664 credit for the 7d cycle → $28,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.52) 73% EV / mo +$6,698 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$443 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 136 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.68–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,840 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $14 below CC-SS $30.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $30.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$198,652 − CC assignment net of premium (136 × $16): -$187,680 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $25): -$7,392 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,580 (+$3,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $119,453 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-115,872, the opportunity cost of earning $28,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,512, position total $12,150 (+$12,150 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$198,652 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $119,453
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 145/150 | $14,293 | $14,304 | 80% | 84% | +$5,576 | -$189,370 | 0.0% | $6,642 (vs do-nothing $-112,810) |
| $16.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 98/150 | $14,280 | $14,391 | 72% | 78% | +$4,555 | -$131,810 | 0.0% | $39,387 (vs do-nothing $-80,066) |
| $17 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 149/150 | $14,261 | $14,264 | 71% | 78% | +$4,449 | -$188,038 | 0.0% | $10,086 (vs do-nothing $-109,366) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 115/150 | $14,293 | $14,368 | 68% | 76% | +$3,369 | -$151,915 | 0.0% | $28,258 (vs do-nothing $-91,195) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 127/150 | $14,333 | $14,382 | 66% | 75% | +$3,299 | -$165,100 | 0.0% | $21,408 (vs do-nothing $-98,044) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 139/150 | $14,297 | $14,321 | 65% | 74% | +$2,929 | -$178,337 | 0.0% | $14,508 (vs do-nothing $-104,945) |
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 68/150 | $14,280 | $14,456 | 62% | 73% | +$3,349 | -$93,840 | 0.0% | $61,517 (vs do-nothing $-57,936) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 90/150 | $14,271 | $14,400 | 60% | 72% | +$2,535 | -$121,950 | 0.0% | $45,022 (vs do-nothing $-74,430) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 103/150 | $14,273 | $14,374 | 59% | 71% | +$2,451 | -$137,196 | 0.0% | $36,640 (vs do-nothing $-82,812) |
| $16 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 117/150 | $14,291 | $14,361 | 59% | 72% | +$2,421 | -$153,855 | 0.0% | $27,374 (vs do-nothing $-92,079) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 95/150 | $14,250 | $14,368 | 53% | 69% | +$2,383 | -$127,205 | 0.0% | $42,408 (vs do-nothing $-77,045) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 86/150 | $14,374 | $14,511 | 53% | 68% | +$1,800 | -$117,132 | 0.0% | $47,729 (vs do-nothing $-71,724) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 70/150 | $14,400 | $14,571 | 52% | 68% | +$2,046 | -$96,810 | 0.0% | $59,603 (vs do-nothing $-59,850) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 48/150 | $14,400 | $14,619 | 50% | 67% | +$2,330 | -$67,632 | 0.0% | $77,164 (vs do-nothing $-42,288) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.