150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $26,036/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $14,014/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-82,050 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 117 × $16 | 74% | $13,037 | $2,323 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 16.9% | 91% | 19% | +4pp | $1,350 | $5,786 | -$7,251 | $48,487 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $17.50 16.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $1,350 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,786/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.62) 92% EV / mo +$2,534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,743/mo median; plan ~$2,545/mo after 68% keep · $18,400 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,654 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,611 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $17.50): -$48,487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,926 (+$39,124 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,787, the opportunity cost of earning $5,786/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,600, position total $-42,860 (+$39,190 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 101 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.2% | 82% | 38% | +3pp | $2,020 | $8,657 | -$4,380 | $41,637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 101 × $16.50 10.2% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $2,020 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,657/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 84% EV / mo +$3,025 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,679/mo median; plan ~$3,182/mo after 68% keep · $26,412 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.4], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,696 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 101 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 763 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $4 below CC-SS $20.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,611 − CC assignment net of premium (101 × $16.50): -$41,637 + Conservative CC premium (49 × $22): +$98 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,978 (+$46,072 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,839, the opportunity cost of earning $8,657/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,493, position total $-46,655 (+$35,395 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 117 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.9% | 74% | 39% | +7pp | $3,042 | $13,037 | — | $53,381 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $16 6.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $3,042 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,037/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 79% EV / mo +$2,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,725/mo median; plan ~$3,893/mo after 68% keep · $29,611 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,379 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,168 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $20.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,611 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $16): -$53,381 + Conservative CC premium (33 × $22): +$66 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,753 (+$34,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,615, the opportunity cost of earning $13,037/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,729, position total $-54,923 (+$27,127 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 142 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 64% | 74% | +18pp | $6,106 | $26,169 | +$13,131 | $69,473 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 142 × $15.50 3.5% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $6,106 credit for the 7d cycle → $26,169/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $15.96) 74% EV / mo +$5,378 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,033/mo median; plan ~$6,143/mo after 68% keep · $44,382 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-5.1], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,443 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 142 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.68–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,696 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $5 below CC-SS $20.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $15.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-82,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,611 − CC assignment net of premium (142 × $15.50): -$69,473 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $22): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,896 (+$18,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,757, the opportunity cost of earning $26,169/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,340, position total $-65,584 (+$16,466 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.998 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$87,611 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,861
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 117/150 | $13,037 | $13,179 | 74% | 79% | +$2,409 | -$53,381 | 0.0% | $-47,753 (vs do-nothing $-53,615) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 133/150 | $13,110 | $13,183 | 69% | 77% | +$1,803 | -$58,021 | 0.0% | $-52,425 (vs do-nothing $-58,287) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 139/150 | $13,106 | $13,153 | 67% | 75% | +$1,825 | -$57,858 | 0.0% | $-52,275 (vs do-nothing $-58,136) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 71/150 | $13,084 | $13,423 | 64% | 74% | +$2,689 | -$34,736 | 0.0% | $-29,017 (vs do-nothing $-34,878) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 100/150 | $13,071 | $13,286 | 62% | 72% | +$1,255 | -$47,125 | 0.0% | $-41,463 (vs do-nothing $-47,325) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 112/150 | $13,120 | $13,283 | 61% | 72% | +$1,262 | -$50,427 | 0.0% | $-44,790 (vs do-nothing $-50,651) |
| $15 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 107/150 | $13,069 | $13,254 | 55% | 69% | +$428 | -$50,102 | 0.0% | $-44,455 (vs do-nothing $-50,316) |
| $15 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 90/150 | $13,114 | $13,371 | 54% | 69% | +$838 | -$43,222 | 0.0% | $-37,541 (vs do-nothing $-43,402) |
| $15 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 75/150 | $13,018 | $13,339 | 54% | 68% | +$858 | -$37,593 | 0.0% | $-31,882 (vs do-nothing $-37,743) |
| $15 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 53/150 | $13,174 | $13,590 | 53% | 68% | +$997 | -$27,785 | 0.0% | $-22,030 (vs do-nothing $-27,891) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.