50 of 150 contracts (5,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.81 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $52,353 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,212/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $4,654/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.17 | $1,724 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 45 × $17 | 81% | $5,175 | $1,971 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 6d | 15.3% | 91% | 18% | +4pp | $500 | $2,500 | -$2,675 | $13,535 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 15.3% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$1,438 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,598/mo median; plan ~$1,086/mo after 68% keep · $6,323 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,289 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,478 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$13,535 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,657 (+$12,943 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,228 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,885, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,850, position total $-11,849 (+$12,751 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 12.1% | 87% | 27% | +8pp | $675 | $3,375 | -$1,800 | $14,206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $675 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.66) 89% EV / mo +$1,708 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,041/mo median; plan ~$1,388/mo after 68% keep · $9,093 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,765 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,478 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17.50): -$14,206 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23): +$35 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,293 (+$12,307 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,228 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,521, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,590, position total $-13,554 (+$11,046 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 45 × $17 | 24 Jul | 6d | 8.9% | 81% | 27% | +10pp | $1,035 | $5,175 | — | $16,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.24 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $17.24) 84% EV / mo +$2,270 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,681/mo median; plan ~$1,823/mo after 68% keep · $10,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,336 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 811 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,478 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17): -$16,096 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23): +$35 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,183 (+$10,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,228 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,411, the opportunity cost of earning $5,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,480, position total $-15,444 (+$9,156 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 42 × $16 | 24 Jul | 6d | 2.5% | 62% | 80% | +11pp | $2,058 | $10,290 | +$5,115 | $18,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.51 mid) = $2,058 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.50) 73% EV / mo +$2,534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,716/mo median; plan ~$2,527/mo after 68% keep · $11,933 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.65–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,804 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $20.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,478 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $16): -$18,131 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $23): +$56 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,197 (+$8,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,228 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,425, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,156, position total $-18,099 (+$6,501 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.018 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,478 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,228
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 45/50 | $5,175 | $5,228 | 81% | 84% | +$2,270 | -$16,096 | 0.0% | $-14,183 (vs do-nothing $-16,411) |
| $17 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 47/50 | $5,206 | $5,238 | 74% | 79% | +$1,611 | -$15,637 | 0.0% | $-13,738 (vs do-nothing $-15,966) |
| $16.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 31/50 | $5,270 | $5,470 | 72% | 79% | +$1,833 | -$12,298 | 0.0% | $-10,287 (vs do-nothing $-12,515) |
| $16.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 37/50 | $5,208 | $5,345 | 67% | 75% | +$1,284 | -$13,679 | 0.0% | $-11,710 (vs do-nothing $-13,938) |
| $16.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 42/50 | $5,229 | $5,313 | 65% | 74% | +$1,150 | -$14,603 | 0.0% | $-12,669 (vs do-nothing $-14,897) |
| $16.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 46/50 | $5,213 | $5,255 | 64% | 74% | +$1,163 | -$15,120 | 0.0% | $-13,214 (vs do-nothing $-15,442) |
| $16 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 21/50 | $5,145 | $5,450 | 62% | 73% | +$1,267 | -$9,066 | 0.0% | $-6,985 (vs do-nothing $-9,213) |
| $16 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 29/50 | $5,220 | $5,440 | 60% | 71% | +$1,004 | -$11,678 | 0.0% | $-9,653 (vs do-nothing $-11,881) |
| $16 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 34/50 | $5,202 | $5,370 | 59% | 71% | +$971 | -$12,876 | 0.0% | $-10,886 (vs do-nothing $-13,114) |
| $16 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 39/50 | $5,200 | $5,315 | 59% | 72% | +$970 | -$14,067 | 0.0% | $-12,112 (vs do-nothing $-14,340) |
| $15.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 33/50 | $5,207 | $5,385 | 53% | 69% | +$829 | -$12,827 | 0.0% | $-10,830 (vs do-nothing $-13,058) |
| $15.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 28/50 | $5,124 | $5,355 | 52% | 68% | +$706 | -$11,444 | 0.0% | $-9,411 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $15.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 23/50 | $5,255 | $5,538 | 51% | 67% | +$748 | -$9,929 | 0.0% | $-7,862 (vs do-nothing $-10,090) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 15/50 | $5,250 | $5,618 | 49% | 67% | +$845 | -$6,910 | 0.0% | $-4,787 (vs do-nothing $-7,015) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.