50 of 150 contracts (5,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $21.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $52,353 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,914/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,475 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.17 | $1,724 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 50 × $17.50 | 82% | $6,000 | $1,941 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 41 × $17 | 68% | $6,038 | $1,379 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 48 × $18 | 24 Jul | 4d | 12.7% | 90% | 20% | +9pp | $528 | $3,960 | -$2,040 | $17,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $528 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$2,452 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,581/mo median; plan ~$1,755/mo after 68% keep · $9,074 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,008 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $4 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $18): -$17,615 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $24): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,964 (+$8,511 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,711, the opportunity cost of earning $3,960/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,968, position total $-12,987 (+$9,489 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 4d | 12.7% | 90% | 20% | +9pp | $550 | $4,125 | -$1,875 | $18,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $550 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$2,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,743/mo median; plan ~$1,865/mo after 68% keep · $7,830 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,092 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $4 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$18,349 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,702 (+$7,773 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,449, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,050, position total $-13,073 (+$9,403 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 50 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 9.5% | 82% | 21% | +12pp | $800 | $6,000 | — | $20,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 9.5% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.18 mid) = $800 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$1,643 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,142/mo median; plan ~$2,137/mo after 68% keep · $9,477 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,769 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 632 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $4 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$20,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,952 (+$5,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,699, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,300, position total $-15,323 (+$7,153 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 42 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 3.3% | 65% | 72% | +16pp | $1,638 | $12,285 | +$6,285 | $20,537 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $16.50 3.3% OTM over spot $15.97 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.42 mid) = $1,638 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,285/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $16.91) 74% EV / mo +$2,802 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,494/mo median; plan ~$3,056/mo after 68% keep · $12,734 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$396 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $21 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,585 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $5 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $16.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $16.50): -$20,537 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $24): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,875 (+$5,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,621, the opportunity cost of earning $12,285/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,846, position total $-17,853 (+$4,623 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $20 | 31 Jul | 11d | 25.2% | 93% | 14% | +5pp | $600 | $1,636 | -$4,402 | $8,299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 25.2% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.14 mid) = $600 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $20.14) 94% EV / mo +$1,013 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,115/mo median; plan ~$758/mo after 68% keep · $5,985 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [0.9-4.4], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,881 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 67% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.27/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $21 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $20 is $2 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $20.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$8,299 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,652 (+$17,823 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,399, the opportunity cost of earning $1,636/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-11,023 (+$11,453 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 47 × $18 | 31 Jul | 11d | 12.7% | 80% | 42% | +7pp | $1,457 | $3,974 | -$2,065 | $16,308 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $18 12.7% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $1,457 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,974/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $18.35) 83% EV / mo +$1,019 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,109/mo median; plan ~$1,434/mo after 68% keep · $8,497 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,334 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 979 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $4 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $18.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $18): -$16,308 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $24): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,655 (+$9,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,402, the opportunity cost of earning $3,974/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$987, position total $-12,004 (+$10,472 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $17 | 31 Jul | 11d | 6.4% | 68% | 55% | +8pp | $2,214 | $6,038 | — | $17,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $17 6.4% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.57 mid) = $2,214 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,038/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 75% EV / mo +$900 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,485/mo median; plan ~$1,690/mo after 68% keep · $8,406 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$909 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,641 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $5 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $17): -$17,383 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $24): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,719 (+$8,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,465, the opportunity cost of earning $6,038/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,018, position total $-15,023 (+$7,453 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 54% | 99% | +15pp | $4,400 | $12,000 | +$5,962 | $24,499 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 0.2% OTM over spot $15.97 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.94 mid) = $4,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $16.94) 67% EV / mo +$550 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,258/mo median; plan ~$2,895/mo after 68% keep · $9,172 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$815 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,418 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $6 below CC-SS $21.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $16.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.60 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,475 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,122 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$24,499 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,852 (+$1,623 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,747 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,599, the opportunity cost of earning $12,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,200, position total $-19,223 (+$3,253 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$26,122 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,747
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 50/50 | $6,000 | $6,000 | 82% | 85% | +$1,643 | -$20,599 | 0.0% | $-16,952 (vs do-nothing $-20,699) |
| $17 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 30/50 | $6,075 | $6,142 | 76% | 81% | +$2,298 | -$13,530 | 0.0% | $-9,843 (vs do-nothing $-13,590) |
| $17 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 41/50 | $6,038 | $6,068 | 68% | 75% | +$900 | -$17,383 | 0.0% | $-13,719 (vs do-nothing $-17,465) |
| $17 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 48/50 | $6,000 | $6,007 | 66% | 75% | +$525 | -$19,343 | 0.0% | $-15,692 (vs do-nothing $-19,439) |
| $16.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 21/50 | $6,142 | $6,239 | 65% | 74% | +$1,401 | -$10,269 | 0.0% | $-6,564 (vs do-nothing $-10,311) |
| $16.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 32/50 | $6,022 | $6,082 | 61% | 71% | +$540 | -$14,688 | 0.0% | $-11,005 (vs do-nothing $-14,752) |
| $16 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 48/50 | $6,106 | $6,112 | 55% | 67% | $-1,215 | -$22,655 | 0.0% | $-19,004 (vs do-nothing $-22,751) |
| $16 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 42/50 | $6,020 | $6,047 | 54% | 67% | $-1,520 | -$20,663 | 0.0% | $-17,001 (vs do-nothing $-20,747) |
| $16 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 25/50 | $6,000 | $6,083 | 54% | 67% | +$275 | -$12,250 | 0.0% | $-8,553 (vs do-nothing $-12,300) |
| $16 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 14/50 | $6,195 | $6,315 | 53% | 68% | +$927 | -$7,266 | 0.0% | $-3,547 (vs do-nothing $-7,294) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.