150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $36,205/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $15,117/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-66,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 142 × $17.50 | 82% | $18,105 | $6,436 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 148 × $17.50 | 74% | $18,164 | $5,398 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 15.0% | 92% | 16% | +3pp | $900 | $6,750 | -$11,355 | $33,252 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18.50 15.0% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $900 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 93% EV / mo +$3,074 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,736/mo median; plan ~$3,220/mo after 68% keep · $13,338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,632 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 227 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $19 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18.50): -$33,252 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,190 (+$38,110 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,552, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-29,264 (+$37,036 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 94 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 8.8% | 82% | 37% | +6pp | $1,598 | $11,985 | -$6,120 | $29,204 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 94 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $1,598 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,985/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$4,283 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,736/mo median; plan ~$4,580/mo after 68% keep · $18,646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,867 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 94 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 697 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (94 × $17.50): -$29,204 + Conservative CC premium (56 × $24): +$112 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,030 (+$42,270 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,392, the opportunity cost of earning $11,985/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,990, position total $-37,142 (+$29,158 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 142 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 8.8% | 82% | 23% | +13pp | $2,414 | $18,105 | — | $44,117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 142 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.17 mid) = $2,414 credit for the 4d cycle → $18,105/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 85% EV / mo +$6,470 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,263/mo median; plan ~$6,299/mo after 68% keep · $27,688 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,331 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 142 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 692 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $18 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (142 × $17.50): -$44,117 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $24): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,038 (+$27,262 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,401, the opportunity cost of earning $18,105/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,070, position total $-41,318 (+$24,982 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 115 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.6% | 62% | 78% | +12pp | $4,830 | $36,225 | +$18,120 | $44,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $16.50 2.6% OTM over spot $16.09 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.43 mid) = $4,830 credit for the 4d cycle → $36,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.93) 72% EV / mo +$6,788 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,362/mo median; plan ~$9,086/mo after 68% keep · $28,779 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-2.4], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$320 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,673 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $4 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $16.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $16.50): -$44,353 + Conservative CC premium (35 × $24): +$70 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,221 (+$27,079 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,583, the opportunity cost of earning $36,225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,400, position total $-47,594 (+$18,706 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $19.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 21.2% | 90% | 20% | +2pp | $1,950 | $5,318 | -$12,845 | $17,202 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $19.50 21.2% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.14 mid) = $1,950 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,318/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $19.64) 91% EV / mo +$1,930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,656/mo median; plan ~$2,486/mo after 68% keep · $12,308 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,636 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $20 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $1 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $19.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $19.50): -$17,202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,140 (+$54,160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,502, the opportunity cost of earning $5,318/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-29,264 (+$37,036 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 129 × $18 | 31 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 79% | 44% | +5pp | $4,386 | $11,962 | -$6,202 | $31,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 129 × $18 11.9% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.34 mid) = $4,386 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,962/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $18.34) 83% EV / mo +$3,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,567/mo median; plan ~$4,465/mo after 68% keep · $19,412 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,605 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 129 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $18.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (129 × $18): -$31,435 + Conservative CC premium (21 × $24): +$42 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,330 (+$39,970 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,693, the opportunity cost of earning $11,962/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,322, position total $-31,544 (+$34,756 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 148 × $17.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 8.8% | 74% | 42% | +6pp | $6,660 | $18,164 | — | $41,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 148 × $17.50 8.8% OTM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.46 mid) = $6,660 credit for the 11d cycle → $18,164/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $17.96) 79% EV / mo +$4,758 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,901/mo median; plan ~$6,052/mo after 68% keep · $30,401 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,484 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,260 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $17.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (148 × $17.50): -$41,837 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $24): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,770 (+$29,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,133, the opportunity cost of earning $18,164/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,436, position total $-37,696 (+$28,604 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 137 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | -0.5% | 52% | 99+% | · | $13,289 | $36,243 | +$18,079 | $52,153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 137 × $16 0.5% ITM over spot $16.09 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.99 mid) = $13,289 credit for the 11d cycle → $36,243/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $17.00) 67% EV / mo +$4,432 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3,857 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 137 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $5 below CC-SS $20.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $17.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-66,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,362 − CC assignment net of premium (137 × $16): -$52,153 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $24): +$26 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,065 (+$19,235 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,362 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,427, the opportunity cost of earning $36,243/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.52 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,235, position total $-50,473 (+$15,827 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.014 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$71,362 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,362
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 142/150 | $18,105 | $18,149 | 82% | 85% | +$6,470 | -$44,117 | 0.0% | $-39,038 (vs do-nothing $-44,401) |
| $17.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 148/150 | $18,164 | $18,175 | 74% | 79% | +$4,758 | -$41,837 | 0.0% | $-36,770 (vs do-nothing $-42,133) |
| $17 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 90/150 | $18,225 | $18,552 | 73% | 79% | +$4,907 | -$31,561 | 0.0% | $-26,379 (vs do-nothing $-31,741) |
| $17 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 115/150 | $18,191 | $18,382 | 67% | 75% | +$3,706 | -$36,763 | 0.0% | $-31,631 (vs do-nothing $-36,993) |
| $17 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 135/150 | $18,225 | $18,307 | 65% | 74% | +$3,487 | -$40,052 | 0.0% | $-34,960 (vs do-nothing $-40,322) |
| $17 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 150/150 | $18,180 | $18,180 | 64% | 74% | +$3,489 | -$41,502 | 0.0% | $-36,440 (vs do-nothing $-41,802) |
| $16.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 58/150 | $18,270 | $18,772 | 62% | 72% | +$3,424 | -$22,370 | 0.0% | $-17,123 (vs do-nothing $-22,486) |
| $16.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 88/150 | $18,240 | $18,578 | 60% | 71% | +$3,053 | -$30,948 | 0.0% | $-25,761 (vs do-nothing $-31,124) |
| $16.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 109/150 | $18,167 | $18,390 | 59% | 71% | +$2,973 | -$35,717 | 0.0% | $-30,573 (vs do-nothing $-35,935) |
| $16.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 127/150 | $18,136 | $18,261 | 59% | 71% | +$2,834 | -$39,202 | 0.0% | $-34,094 (vs do-nothing $-39,456) |
| $16 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 107/150 | $18,104 | $18,339 | 53% | 69% | +$2,360 | -$36,025 | 0.0% | $-30,876 (vs do-nothing $-36,239) |
| $16 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 90/150 | $18,150 | $18,477 | 53% | 68% | +$2,302 | -$32,101 | 0.0% | $-26,919 (vs do-nothing $-32,281) |
| $16 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 69/150 | $18,254 | $18,695 | 52% | 67% | +$2,232 | -$26,267 | 0.0% | $-21,043 (vs do-nothing $-26,405) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 38/150 | $18,240 | $18,851 | 50% | 66% | +$2,373 | -$15,720 | 0.0% | $-10,433 (vs do-nothing $-15,796) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.