150 contracts (15,000 sh) | BE SS: $30.29 | CC-SS: $20.98 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $157,060 | (ND $-29.53 + SW $40) x 15000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,971/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $14,661/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-64,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 150 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 120 × $18 | 88% | $15,600 | $6,972 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 140 × $18 | 77% | $15,540 | $3,696 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 147 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +7pp | $1,029 | $10,290 | -$5,310 | $35,448 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 147 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $1,029 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$7,482 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,143/mo median; plan ~$4,857/mo after 68% keep · $21,858 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,229 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 147 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 217 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (147 × $18.50): -$35,448 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $24): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,384 (+$34,041 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,889, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$83,643, position total $-28,053 (+$36,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +5pp | $1,050 | $10,500 | -$5,100 | $36,171 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$7,634 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,506/mo median; plan ~$5,104/mo after 68% keep · $20,512 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,356 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 195 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $18.50): -$36,171 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,117 (+$33,308 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,621, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$85,350, position total $-29,691 (+$34,734 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 120 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 88% | 15% | +10pp | $1,560 | $15,600 | — | $34,217 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 120 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.14 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $18.14) 90% EV / mo +$10,100 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,164/mo median; plan ~$6,912/mo after 68% keep · $28,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,205 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 120 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 449 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $18.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (120 × $18): -$34,217 + Conservative CC premium (30 × $24): +$90 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,073 (+$35,352 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,577, the opportunity cost of earning $15,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$73,560, position total $-18,591 (+$45,834 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 141 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 80% | 42% | +14pp | $3,102 | $31,020 | +$15,420 | $45,986 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 141 × $17.50 6.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $3,102 credit for the 3d cycle → $31,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.73) 84% EV / mo +$16,293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,576/mo median; plan ~$10,591/mo after 68% keep · $41,948 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,483 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 141 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 816 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $3 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $17.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (141 × $17.50): -$45,986 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $24): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,905 (+$23,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,409, the opportunity cost of earning $31,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$92,214, position total $-36,762 (+$27,663 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 150 × $19.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 18.3% | 90% | 20% | +5pp | $2,100 | $6,300 | -$9,240 | $20,121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $19.50 18.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.15 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $19.65) 91% EV / mo +$3,316 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,145/mo median; plan ~$2,818/mo after 68% keep · $17,022 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,959 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 407 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $1 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $19.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $19.50): -$20,121 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,067 (+$49,358 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,571, the opportunity cost of earning $6,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,300, position total $-13,641 (+$50,784 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 132 × $18.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.3% | 83% | 36% | +7pp | $3,432 | $10,296 | -$5,244 | $29,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 132 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $3,432 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,296/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $18.77) 85% EV / mo +$4,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,133/mo median; plan ~$4,171/mo after 68% keep · $21,308 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,636 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 132 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 823 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $2 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $18.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (132 × $18.50): -$29,323 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $24): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,214 (+$40,211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,719, the opportunity cost of earning $10,296/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$72,600, position total $-17,355 (+$47,070 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 140 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 77% | 38% | +8pp | $5,180 | $15,540 | — | $36,560 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 140 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $5,180 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $18.38) 82% EV / mo +$5,699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,948/mo median; plan ~$5,404/mo after 68% keep · $24,646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,210 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 140 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,140 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $3 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $18.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (140 × $18): -$36,560 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $24): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,475 (+$32,950 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,980, the opportunity cost of earning $15,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$82,460, position total $-27,031 (+$37,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 150 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.2% | 62% | 80% | +13pp | $10,350 | $31,050 | +$15,510 | $49,371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $17 3.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.70 mid) = $10,350 credit for the 10d cycle → $31,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $17.70) 73% EV / mo +$8,121 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,420/mo median; plan ~$8,446/mo after 68% keep · $35,016 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$163 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,010 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $4 below CC-SS $20.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $17.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,479 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $17): -$49,371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,317 (+$20,108 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,504 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,821, the opportunity cost of earning $31,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$98,550, position total $-42,891 (+$21,534 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.029 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$69,479 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,504
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 120/150 | $15,600 | $15,759 | 88% | 90% | +$10,100 | -$34,217 | 0.0% | $-29,073 (vs do-nothing $-34,577) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 71/150 | $15,620 | $16,038 | 80% | 84% | +$8,204 | -$23,156 | 0.0% | $-17,865 (vs do-nothing $-23,369) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 140/150 | $15,540 | $15,593 | 77% | 82% | +$5,699 | -$36,560 | 0.0% | $-31,475 (vs do-nothing $-36,980) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 144/150 | $15,501 | $15,533 | 72% | 78% | +$4,063 | -$34,149 | 0.0% | $-29,076 (vs do-nothing $-34,581) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 102/150 | $15,606 | $15,860 | 70% | 77% | +$4,913 | -$30,309 | 0.0% | $-25,110 (vs do-nothing $-30,615) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 44/150 | $15,840 | $16,401 | 67% | 77% | +$6,178 | -$15,934 | 0.0% | $-10,562 (vs do-nothing $-16,066) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 114/150 | $15,491 | $15,681 | 67% | 75% | +$3,697 | -$30,910 | 0.0% | $-25,748 (vs do-nothing $-31,252) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 128/150 | $15,520 | $15,636 | 65% | 75% | +$3,680 | -$32,146 | 0.0% | $-27,026 (vs do-nothing $-32,530) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 75/150 | $15,525 | $15,922 | 62% | 73% | +$4,060 | -$24,686 | 0.0% | $-19,406 (vs do-nothing $-24,911) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 93/150 | $15,591 | $15,893 | 60% | 72% | +$3,158 | -$28,192 | 0.0% | $-22,967 (vs do-nothing $-28,471) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 106/150 | $15,502 | $15,735 | 60% | 72% | +$3,304 | -$29,801 | 0.0% | $-24,615 (vs do-nothing $-30,119) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 90/150 | $15,637 | $15,955 | 54% | 70% | +$2,848 | -$27,823 | 0.0% | $-22,588 (vs do-nothing $-28,093) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 75/150 | $15,485 | $15,882 | 54% | 69% | +$2,662 | -$24,836 | 0.0% | $-19,556 (vs do-nothing $-25,061) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 57/150 | $15,561 | $16,053 | 53% | 69% | +$3,208 | -$20,357 | 0.0% | $-15,024 (vs do-nothing $-20,528) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 28/150 | $15,960 | $16,606 | 52% | 70% | +$4,283 | -$10,952 | 0.0% | $-5,531 (vs do-nothing $-11,036) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 150 contracts at the conservative CC.