225 contracts (22,500 sh) | BE SS: $39.13 | CC-SS: $40.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $227,878 | (ND $-29.87 + SW $40) x 22500 |
| Normal income ref | $42,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $26,438/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-498,825 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 225 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 163 × $17 | 79% | $21,394 | $9,620 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 209 × $18 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.4% | 93% | 15% | $3,762 | $14,108 | -$7,286 | $459,105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 209 × $18 13.4% OTM over spot $15.88 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $3,762 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,108/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.20) 94% EV / mo +$12,091 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.7 mo [5.5-7.9] median · 6% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 5% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $58,578 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,003 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 209 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $18.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-498,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$491,402 − CC assignment net of premium (209 × $18): -$459,105 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $22): -$28,955 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-495,483 (+$3,342 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-414,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-80,883, the opportunity cost of earning $14,108/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,241, position total $-452,489 (+$46,336 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 225 × $18 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.4% | 93% | 15% | $4,050 | $15,188 | -$6,206 | $494,252 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 225 × $18 13.4% OTM over spot $15.88 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $4,050 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $18.20) 94% EV / mo +$13,017 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.8 mo [5.1-8.4] median, 1.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 6% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $63,448 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,768 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 225 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $22 below CC-SS $40.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $18.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-498,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$491,402 − CC assignment net of premium (225 × $18): -$494,252 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-501,675 ($-2,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-414,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-87,075, the opportunity cost of earning $15,188/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,025, position total $-453,353 (+$45,472 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 163 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.1% | 79% | 31% | $5,705 | $21,394 | — | $371,587 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 163 × $17 7.1% OTM over spot $15.88 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $5,705 credit for the 8d cycle → $21,394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 85% EV / mo +$13,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 6.5 mo [5.6-7.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (6.8 mo) · 5% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 3% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $104,153 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,434 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 87% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 163 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 929 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $23 below CC-SS $40.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-498,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$491,402 − CC assignment net of premium (163 × $17): -$371,587 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (62 × $22): -$112,200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-491,210 (+$7,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-414,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-76,610, the opportunity cost of earning $21,394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,516, position total $-463,534 (+$35,292 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 168 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 0.8% | 55% | 93% | $11,424 | $42,840 | +$21,446 | $394,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 168 × $16 0.8% OTM over spot $15.88 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $11,424 credit for the 8d cycle → $42,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 73% EV / mo +$16,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.2 mo [5.0-8.3] median, 2.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 5% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 2% without) · ~41.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $120,553 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,589 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 168 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,233 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $24 below CC-SS $40.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-498,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$491,402 − CC assignment net of premium (168 × $16): -$394,242 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (57 × $22): -$103,152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-504,816 ($-5,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-414,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,216, the opportunity cost of earning $42,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,432, position total $-475,474 (+$23,350 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$491,402 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-414,600
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 163/225 | $21,394 | $22,014 | 79% | 85% | +$13,818 | -$371,587 | 0.0% | $-491,210 (vs do-nothing $-76,610) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 179/225 | $21,480 | $21,940 | 73% | 82% | +$12,181 | -$403,587 | 0.0% | $-494,255 (vs do-nothing $-79,655) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 114/225 | $21,375 | $22,485 | 68% | 80% | +$11,161 | -$263,873 | 0.0% | $-472,170 (vs do-nothing $-57,570) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 141/225 | $21,432 | $22,272 | 65% | 78% | +$10,076 | -$322,703 | 0.0% | $-482,139 (vs do-nothing $-67,539) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 84/225 | $21,420 | $22,830 | 55% | 73% | +$8,114 | -$197,121 | 0.0% | $-459,708 (vs do-nothing $-45,108) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 113/225 | $21,470 | $22,590 | 55% | 73% | +$7,935 | -$262,123 | 0.0% | $-472,230 (vs do-nothing $-57,630) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 225 contracts at the conservative CC.