50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.46 | CC-SS: $59.31 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $244,550 | (ND $18.91 + SW $30) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,476/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-196,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 42 × $17 | 78% | $5,512 | $1,556 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.7% | 92% | 17% | $600 | $2,250 | -$3,263 | $203,461 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 18.7% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.64) 93% EV / mo +$1,394 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.0 mo [5.8-8.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 4% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,171 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,365 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 264 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $41 below CC-SS $59.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,750 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$203,461 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-203,461 ($-6,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-186,311 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,150, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$250, position total $-183,140 (+$13,610 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 39 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.3% | 85% | 32% | $975 | $3,656 | -$1,856 | $162,093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $17.50 12.3% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $975 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,656/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $17.77) 87% EV / mo +$2,054 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.0 mo [5.6-7.2] median, 0.6 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (6.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 4% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 4% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,072 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,951 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 719 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $42 below CC-SS $59.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $17.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,750 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $17.50): -$162,093 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $22): -$40,988 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-203,081 ($-6,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-186,311 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,770, the opportunity cost of earning $3,656/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,588, position total $-186,423 (+$10,327 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 42 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 78% | 34% | $1,470 | $5,512 | — | $176,241 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $17 9.0% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $1,470 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,512/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $17.38) 83% EV / mo +$2,605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.1 mo [5.2-7.9] median, 1.9 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 2% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 2% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,543 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,591 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,034 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $42 below CC-SS $59.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $17.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,750 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $17): -$176,241 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $22): -$29,810 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-206,051 ($-9,301 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-186,311 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,740, the opportunity cost of earning $5,512/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,544, position total $-188,394 (+$8,356 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 61% | 82% | $2,992 | $11,220 | +$5,708 | $187,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $16 2.6% OTM over spot $15.59 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $2,992 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 74% EV / mo +$3,621 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 7.3 mo [6.1-8.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (7.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 3% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 2% without) · ~30.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,373 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,923 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $43 below CC-SS $59.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,750 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $16): -$187,582 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $22): -$22,357 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-209,939 ($-13,189 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-186,311 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,628, the opportunity cost of earning $11,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,756, position total $-191,616 (+$5,134 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$196,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-186,311
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 42/50 | $5,512 | $5,592 | 78% | 83% | +$2,605 | -$176,241 | 186.4% | $-206,051 (vs do-nothing $-19,740) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 46/50 | $5,520 | $5,560 | 73% | 80% | +$2,091 | -$191,876 | 202.9% | $-206,781 (vs do-nothing $-20,470) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 30/50 | $5,625 | $5,825 | 70% | 79% | +$2,272 | -$126,937 | 134.3% | $-201,461 (vs do-nothing $-15,150) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 37/50 | $5,624 | $5,754 | 67% | 76% | +$1,880 | -$155,593 | 164.6% | $-204,034 (vs do-nothing $-17,723) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 43/50 | $5,629 | $5,699 | 65% | 75% | +$1,487 | -$179,965 | 190.3% | $-206,048 (vs do-nothing $-19,737) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 22/50 | $5,610 | $5,890 | 61% | 74% | +$1,811 | -$93,791 | 99.2% | $-198,125 (vs do-nothing $-11,814) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 29/50 | $5,510 | $5,720 | 60% | 73% | +$1,571 | -$122,850 | 129.9% | $-201,101 (vs do-nothing $-14,790) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 35/50 | $5,536 | $5,686 | 59% | 72% | +$1,276 | -$147,533 | 156.0% | $-203,426 (vs do-nothing $-17,115) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 29/50 | $5,536 | $5,746 | 53% | 70% | +$1,124 | -$122,995 | 130.1% | $-201,246 (vs do-nothing $-14,935) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 24/50 | $5,712 | $5,972 | 52% | 70% | +$1,399 | -$102,293 | 108.2% | $-199,175 (vs do-nothing $-12,864) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 16/50 | $5,520 | $5,860 | 50% | 70% | +$1,436 | -$68,628 | 72.6% | $-195,319 (vs do-nothing $-9,008) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.