50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.46 | CC-SS: $54.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $244,550 | (ND $18.91 + SW $30) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,018/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,451/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-196,050 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 35 × $16.50 | 73% | $5,100 | $1,599 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.9% | 91% | 19% | +1pp | $550 | $2,357 | -$2,743 | $180,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 15.9% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $550 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.12) 92% EV / mo +$1,311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,599/mo median; plan ~$1,088/mo after 68% keep · $14,287 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo [5.8-7.9], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,469 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $36 below CC-SS $54.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,050 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$180,038 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-180,038 (+$16,012 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-155,538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,357/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,750, position total $-182,874 (+$13,176 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.7% | 87% | 27% | +2pp | $782 | $3,351 | -$1,749 | $167,659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $17.50 12.7% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $782 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,351/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.68) 89% EV / mo +$1,756 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 6% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,022/mo median; plan ~$1,375/mo after 68% keep · $17,865 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~8.1 mo [4.4-8.5], measured ONLY among the 6% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,918 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 511 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $37 below CC-SS $54.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,050 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $17.50): -$167,659 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $23): -$12,443 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-180,102 (+$15,948 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-155,538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,564, the opportunity cost of earning $3,351/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,554, position total $-184,674 (+$11,376 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.3% | 73% | 42% | +1pp | $1,190 | $5,100 | — | $130,471 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $16.50 6.3% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid) = $1,190 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $16.86) 79% EV / mo +$1,762 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 3% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,236/mo median; plan ~$1,521/mo after 68% keep · $19,877 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [4.5-7.0], measured ONLY among the 3% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$747 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,265 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $38 below CC-SS $54.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $16.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,050 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $16.50): -$130,471 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $23): -$46,661 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-177,133 (+$18,917 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-155,538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,595, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,370, position total $-186,479 (+$9,571 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 63% | 76% | +2pp | $2,352 | $10,080 | +$4,980 | $180,612 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $16 3.1% OTM over spot $15.53 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $2,352 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $16.53) 74% EV / mo +$2,673 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,506/mo median; plan ~$2,384/mo after 68% keep · $31,412 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo [5.2-7.5], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$224 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.68–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,787 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $38 below CC-SS $54.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-196,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$196,050 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $16): -$180,612 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $23): -$6,222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-186,834 (+$9,216 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-155,538 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,296, the opportunity cost of earning $10,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,416, position total $-190,538 (+$5,512 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.016 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$196,050 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-155,538
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 35/50 | $5,100 | $5,132 | 73% | 79% | +$1,762 | -$130,471 | 138.0% | $-177,133 (vs do-nothing $-21,595) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 42/50 | $5,130 | $5,147 | 68% | 76% | +$1,192 | -$155,600 | 164.6% | $-180,486 (vs do-nothing $-24,948) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 45/50 | $5,014 | $5,025 | 66% | 75% | +$1,185 | -$165,769 | 175.3% | $-181,323 (vs do-nothing $-25,785) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 49/50 | $5,040 | $5,042 | 65% | 75% | +$1,233 | -$179,622 | 190.0% | $-182,733 (vs do-nothing $-27,195) |
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 24/50 | $5,040 | $5,096 | 63% | 74% | +$1,336 | -$90,306 | 95.5% | $-171,186 (vs do-nothing $-15,648) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 32/50 | $5,143 | $5,181 | 61% | 72% | +$1,024 | -$119,576 | 126.5% | $-175,570 (vs do-nothing $-20,032) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 37/50 | $5,074 | $5,102 | 60% | 72% | +$996 | -$137,483 | 145.4% | $-177,923 (vs do-nothing $-22,385) |
| $16 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 42/50 | $5,130 | $5,147 | 60% | 72% | +$1,067 | -$155,306 | 164.3% | $-180,192 (vs do-nothing $-24,654) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 35/50 | $5,025 | $5,057 | 54% | 69% | +$756 | -$130,471 | 138.0% | $-177,133 (vs do-nothing $-21,595) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 31/50 | $5,137 | $5,178 | 53% | 69% | +$760 | -$116,118 | 122.8% | $-175,223 (vs do-nothing $-19,685) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 25/50 | $5,143 | $5,196 | 53% | 69% | +$793 | -$94,144 | 99.6% | $-171,913 (vs do-nothing $-16,375) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 17/50 | $5,100 | $5,171 | 51% | 68% | +$996 | -$64,460 | 68.2% | $-167,115 (vs do-nothing $-11,577) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.