50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.46 | CC-SS: $54.86 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $244,550 | (ND $18.91 + SW $30) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,679/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,478/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-201,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 39 × $16 | 74% | $4,346 | $664 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 16.9% | 91% | 19% | +0pp | $450 | $1,929 | -$2,417 | $186,331 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 16.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.12 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.62) 92% EV / mo +$845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,283/mo median; plan ~$873/mo after 68% keep · $11,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo [5.5-7.9], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,551 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $37 below CC-SS $54.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-201,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$201,425 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$186,331 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-186,331 (+$15,094 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-164,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,150, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,200, position total $-188,142 (+$13,283 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 34 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.2% | 82% | 38% | +1pp | $680 | $2,914 | -$1,431 | $129,731 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $16.50 10.2% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $680 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.71) 84% EV / mo +$1,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 2% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,655/mo median; plan ~$1,126/mo after 68% keep · $14,720 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [5.9-7.9], measured ONLY among the 2% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,244 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 760 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $38 below CC-SS $54.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $16.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-201,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$201,425 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $16.50): -$129,731 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $22): -$52,538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-182,269 (+$19,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-164,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,088, the opportunity cost of earning $2,914/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,562, position total $-189,472 (+$11,953 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.9% | 74% | 40% | +1pp | $1,014 | $4,346 | — | $150,525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16 6.9% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $1,014 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,346/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 79% EV / mo +$803 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 2% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,946/mo median; plan ~$1,323/mo after 68% keep · $17,342 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.3 mo [5.9-8.5], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,126 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,204 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $39 below CC-SS $54.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-201,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$201,425 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16): -$150,525 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $22): -$36,120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-186,645 (+$14,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-164,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,464, the opportunity cost of earning $4,346/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,243, position total $-192,163 (+$9,262 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 64% | 74% | +1pp | $2,064 | $8,846 | +$4,500 | $186,845 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $15.50 3.5% OTM over spot $14.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $2,064 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,846/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $15.96) 74% EV / mo +$1,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,096/mo median; plan ~$2,105/mo after 68% keep · $27,499 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [5.5-7.7], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$488 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.69–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,748 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $39 below CC-SS $54.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $15.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $54.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-201,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$201,425 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $15.50): -$186,845 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $22): -$6,567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-193,413 (+$8,012 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-164,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,232, the opportunity cost of earning $8,846/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.63 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,960, position total $-195,898 (+$5,527 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.010 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$201,425 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-164,181
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,393 | 74% | 79% | +$803 | -$150,525 | 159.2% | $-186,645 (vs do-nothing $-22,464) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 45/50 | $4,436 | $4,457 | 69% | 77% | +$610 | -$172,783 | 182.7% | $-189,201 (vs do-nothing $-25,020) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 47/50 | $4,431 | $4,444 | 67% | 75% | +$617 | -$179,522 | 189.9% | $-189,373 (vs do-nothing $-25,192) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 24/50 | $4,423 | $4,534 | 64% | 74% | +$909 | -$93,423 | 98.8% | $-178,797 (vs do-nothing $-14,616) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 34/50 | $4,444 | $4,513 | 62% | 72% | +$427 | -$131,737 | 139.3% | $-184,275 (vs do-nothing $-20,094) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 38/50 | $4,451 | $4,503 | 61% | 72% | +$428 | -$146,437 | 154.9% | $-185,841 (vs do-nothing $-21,660) |
| $15 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 36/50 | $4,397 | $4,457 | 55% | 69% | +$144 | -$139,378 | 147.4% | $-185,349 (vs do-nothing $-21,168) |
| $15 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 30/50 | $4,371 | $4,457 | 54% | 69% | +$279 | -$116,508 | 123.2% | $-182,181 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) |
| $15 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 25/50 | $4,339 | $4,446 | 54% | 68% | +$286 | -$97,615 | 103.2% | $-179,706 (vs do-nothing $-15,525) |
| $15 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 18/50 | $4,474 | $4,611 | 53% | 68% | +$339 | -$70,697 | 74.8% | $-175,773 (vs do-nothing $-11,592) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.