50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.46 | CC-SS: $53.88 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $244,550 | (ND $18.91 + SW $30) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,324/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,407/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-192,050 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50x $17.5C 24 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.07 | $370 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 40 × $18 | 88% | $5,200 | $2,471 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 47 × $18 | 77% | $5,217 | $1,185 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 49 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +2pp | $343 | $3,430 | -$1,770 | $173,020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $343 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$2,494 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 6% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,536/mo median; plan ~$1,724/mo after 68% keep · $22,511 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [4.8-7.8], measured ONLY among the 6% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,076 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 217 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $35 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $18.50): -$173,020 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $24): -$2,985 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-176,005 (+$16,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,754, the opportunity cost of earning $3,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,881, position total $-180,004 (+$12,046 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 94% | 13% | +3pp | $350 | $3,500 | -$1,700 | $176,551 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $350 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $18.57) 94% EV / mo +$2,545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,809/mo median; plan ~$1,910/mo after 68% keep · $24,342 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.8-7.5], measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,119 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 202 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $35 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $18.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$176,551 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-176,551 (+$15,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,300, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,450, position total $-180,550 (+$11,500 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $18 | 24 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 88% | 14% | +4pp | $520 | $5,200 | — | $143,001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.14 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $18.14) 90% EV / mo +$3,367 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,616/mo median; plan ~$2,459/mo after 68% keep · $31,124 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.1 mo [6.0-8.1], measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,402 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 426 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $36 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $18.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $18): -$143,001 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $24): -$29,850 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-172,851 (+$19,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,600, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,520, position total $-176,850 (+$15,200 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 80% | 42% | +4pp | $1,034 | $10,340 | +$5,140 | $169,953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $17.50 6.2% OTM over spot $16.48 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $1,034 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.73) 84% EV / mo +$5,431 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 11% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,649/mo median; plan ~$3,841/mo after 68% keep · $48,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [4.4-7.4], measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,161 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 851 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $36 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $17.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $17.50): -$169,953 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $24): -$8,955 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-178,908 (+$13,142 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,657, the opportunity cost of earning $10,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,738, position total $-182,907 (+$9,143 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $19.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 18.3% | 90% | 20% | +1pp | $700 | $2,100 | -$3,117 | $171,201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $19.50 18.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.15 mid) = $700 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $19.65) 91% EV / mo +$1,105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 5% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,400/mo median; plan ~$952/mo after 68% keep · $12,414 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.9 mo [5.7-7.9], measured ONLY among the 5% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,320 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $20 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19.50 is $34 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $19.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $19.50): -$171,201 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-171,201 (+$20,849 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,950, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,100, position total $-175,200 (+$16,850 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 44 × $18.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 12.3% | 83% | 36% | +2pp | $1,144 | $3,432 | -$1,785 | $154,529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $18.50 12.3% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $1,144 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $18.77) 85% EV / mo +$1,390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 6% whole by 9mo vs 4% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,834/mo median; plan ~$1,247/mo after 68% keep · $16,266 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo [6.0-7.8], measured ONLY among the 6% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,212 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $35 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $18.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $18.50): -$154,529 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $24): -$17,910 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-172,439 (+$19,611 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,188, the opportunity cost of earning $3,432/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,200, position total $-176,438 (+$15,612 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 47 × $18 | 31 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 77% | 39% | +1pp | $1,739 | $5,217 | — | $166,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $18 9.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $1,739 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,217/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $18.38) 82% EV / mo +$1,913 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 2% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,393/mo median; plan ~$1,627/mo after 68% keep · $21,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo [6.1-8.0], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,749 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,156 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $36 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $18.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $18): -$166,898 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $24): -$8,955 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-175,853 (+$16,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,602, the opportunity cost of earning $5,217/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,683, position total $-179,852 (+$12,198 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $17 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.2% | 62% | 80% | +1pp | $3,450 | $10,350 | +$5,133 | $180,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17 3.2% OTM over spot $16.48 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.70 mid) = $3,450 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $17.70) 73% EV / mo +$2,707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 4% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,497/mo median; plan ~$2,378/mo after 68% keep · $31,302 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo [4.5-7.5], measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$54 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,034 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $37 below CC-SS $53.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $17.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $53.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-192,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$192,050 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17): -$180,951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-180,951 (+$11,099 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-149,251 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,700, the opportunity cost of earning $10,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $24.26 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,850, position total $-184,950 (+$7,100 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.027 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$192,050 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-149,251
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 40/50 | $5,200 | $5,253 | 88% | 90% | +$3,367 | -$143,001 | 151.2% | $-172,851 (vs do-nothing $-23,600) |
| $17.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 24/50 | $5,280 | $5,418 | 80% | 84% | +$2,773 | -$86,784 | 91.8% | $-164,395 (vs do-nothing $-15,144) |
| $18 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 47/50 | $5,217 | $5,233 | 77% | 82% | +$1,913 | -$166,898 | 176.5% | $-175,853 (vs do-nothing $-26,602) |
| $18 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 48/50 | $5,167 | $5,178 | 72% | 78% | +$1,354 | -$169,297 | 179.1% | $-175,267 (vs do-nothing $-26,016) |
| $17.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 34/50 | $5,202 | $5,287 | 70% | 77% | +$1,638 | -$121,959 | 129.0% | $-169,719 (vs do-nothing $-20,468) |
| $17 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 15/50 | $5,400 | $5,585 | 67% | 77% | +$2,106 | -$54,780 | 57.9% | $-159,256 (vs do-nothing $-10,005) |
| $17.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 38/50 | $5,164 | $5,227 | 67% | 75% | +$1,232 | -$135,319 | 143.1% | $-171,139 (vs do-nothing $-21,888) |
| $17.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 43/50 | $5,214 | $5,251 | 65% | 75% | +$1,236 | -$152,264 | 161.0% | $-173,159 (vs do-nothing $-23,908) |
| $17 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 25/50 | $5,175 | $5,307 | 62% | 73% | +$1,353 | -$90,475 | 95.7% | $-165,101 (vs do-nothing $-15,850) |
| $17 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 31/50 | $5,197 | $5,298 | 60% | 72% | +$1,053 | -$111,384 | 117.8% | $-168,099 (vs do-nothing $-18,848) |
| $17 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 36/50 | $5,265 | $5,339 | 60% | 72% | +$1,122 | -$128,557 | 136.0% | $-170,347 (vs do-nothing $-21,096) |
| $16.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 30/50 | $5,212 | $5,318 | 54% | 70% | +$949 | -$107,971 | 114.2% | $-167,671 (vs do-nothing $-18,420) |
| $16.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 25/50 | $5,162 | $5,294 | 54% | 69% | +$887 | -$90,525 | 95.7% | $-165,151 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 19/50 | $5,187 | $5,351 | 53% | 69% | +$1,069 | -$69,293 | 73.3% | $-161,829 (vs do-nothing $-12,578) |
| $16.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 10/50 | $5,700 | $5,912 | 52% | 70% | +$1,529 | -$36,810 | 38.9% | $-156,211 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.