FORTRESS FIGHT: BMNR @ $20.41

BE SS: $45.53 | CC-SS: $20.55 | 250 contracts (25,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

BMNRMAX 60 @ $20.41 UNDERWATER $25.12 (55.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

BMNR reports 2026-11-20 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-20.

250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $45.53 | CC-SS: $20.55 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $40 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $5.534/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$138,250	(ND $5.53 + SW $0) x 25000
Normal income ref	$63,529/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$31,765/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$63,529/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $138,250

ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $138,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.55 (probe: $20.5C 17d) still earns $63,529/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $29.26 (+43%) · daily UBB $24.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-20: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.55 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 250 × $22 20 Nov 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $22)

69%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$21,000

Income / mo

$37,059

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	27 Nov 2026	16d left	-$0.04/sh	-$1,070 cycle +$19,930 [-$7,154…-$3,006] · 13% credit	66% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	16d left	-$0.72/sh	-$18,059 cycle +$2,941 [-$27,302…-$21,651]	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $21,000 debit $18,059 (86% used ≈ 2.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,941 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $22,778/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $22.50 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$4,000

Income / mo

$40,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 511 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $23 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$11,075 cycle +$15,075 [+$8,421…+$13,087] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$24	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$9,297 cycle +$13,297 [+$3,423…+$10,902] · 86% credit	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$25	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,943 cycle +$5,943 [-$5,972…+$3,099] · 42% credit	80% surv 75%
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$36 cycle +$4,036 [-$5,781…+$1,184] · 35% credit	75% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.13/sh	-$3,135 cycle +$865 [-$12,864…-$2,252] · 12% credit	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,135 (78% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$865 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $17,926/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $23 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$2,500

Income / mo

$25,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (250 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$10,988 cycle +$13,488 [+$8,899…+$13,177] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$9,253 cycle +$11,753 [+$4,136…+$11,014] · 88% credit	76% surv 68%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.22/sh	+$5,404 cycle +$7,904 [+$1,977…+$7,075] · 85% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$26	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$1,853 cycle +$4,353 [-$5,176…+$3,088] · 44% credit	80% surv 75%
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.517 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$1,856 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,356

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$22.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	250/250	$4,000	$40,000	$40,000	86%hist 86%	29%hist 22%	87%	+$15,331	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,106 (vs do-nothing +$3,750)
$22	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.25	250/250	$6,250	$62,500	$62,500	80%hist 83%	42%hist 40%	83%	+$21,336	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,356 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$22	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.54	250/250	$13,500	$40,500	$40,500	73%hist 83%	57%hist 45%	79%	+$10,461	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$14,606 (vs do-nothing +$13,250)
$21.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.36	250/250	$9,000	$90,000	$90,000	72%hist 83%	57%hist 45%	78%	+$23,251	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,106 (vs do-nothing +$8,750)
$22	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.84	250/250	$21,000	$37,059	$37,059	69%hist 66%	65%hist 55%	77%	+$8,584	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$22,106 (vs do-nothing +$20,750)
$21.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.69	250/250	$17,250	$51,750	$51,750	67%hist 66%	69%hist 55%	75%	+$10,979	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,356 (vs do-nothing +$17,000)
$21.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$1.02	250/250	$25,500	$45,000	$45,000	65%hist 66%	75%hist 67%	74%	+$9,463	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$26,606 (vs do-nothing +$25,250)
$21	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.52	250/250	$13,000	$130,000	$130,000	64%hist 66%	75%hist 67%	73%	+$25,610	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$14,106 (vs do-nothing +$12,750)
$21	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.91	250/250	$22,750	$68,250	$68,250	61%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$13,866	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$23,856 (vs do-nothing +$22,500)
$21	17d	20 Nov 2026	$1.22	250/250	$30,500	$53,824	$53,824	60%hist 69%	86%hist 79%	72%	+$9,888	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$31,606 (vs do-nothing +$30,250)
$21	24d	27 Nov 2026	$1.40	250/250	$35,000	$43,750	$43,750	60%hist 69%	87%hist 79%	72%	+$8,245	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$36,106 (vs do-nothing +$34,750)
$20.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$1.44	250/250	$36,000	$63,529	$63,529	55%hist 69%	98%hist 89%	69%	+$9,773	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$35,766 (vs do-nothing +$34,410)
$20.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$1.13	250/250	$28,250	$84,750	$84,750	54%hist 69%	97%hist 89%	69%	+$13,650	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$28,016 (vs do-nothing +$26,660)

Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$20.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.74	250/250	$18,500	$185,000	$185,000	54%hist 69%	96%hist 89%	68%	+$28,451	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,266 (vs do-nothing +$16,910)

58 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$40	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$441	$441	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$283	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$441	$441	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$273	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$441	$441	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$260	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$683	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$441	$441	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$217	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$625	$625	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$486	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$624	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$441	$441	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$135	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$2,500	$2,500	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$1,885	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$1,103	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$1,324	$1,324	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$951	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$412	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$1,500	$1,500	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$874	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$2,500	$2,500	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$1,332	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$1,324	$1,324	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$710	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$2,250	$2,250	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,500	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$938	$938	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$389	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$2,250	$2,250	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,353	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$2,206	$2,206	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,372	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,356 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	250/250	$500	$5,000	$5,000	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$3,036	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,606 (vs do-nothing +$250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$2,250	$2,250	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,163	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.07	250/250	$1,750	$2,188	$2,188	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,352	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,856 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	250/250	$250	$750	$750	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	$-598	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	250/250	$1,750	$3,088	$3,088	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,910	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,856 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	250/250	$750	$7,500	$7,500	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$4,324	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	250/250	$1,750	$3,088	$3,088	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$1,666	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,856 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	250/250	$1,250	$3,750	$3,750	96%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$2,024	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,356 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.10	250/250	$2,500	$3,125	$3,125	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$1,858	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,606 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$3,529	$3,529	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$1,795	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.07	250/250	$1,750	$5,250	$5,250	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$2,982	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,856 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	250/250	$1,000	$10,000	$10,000	95%hist 96%	10%hist 3%	95%	+$4,838	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,106 (vs do-nothing +$750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	250/250	$2,500	$4,412	$4,412	95%hist 96%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$2,278	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,606 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.13	250/250	$3,250	$4,062	$4,062	95%hist 96%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$2,137	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,356 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	250/250	$2,000	$6,000	$6,000	95%hist 96%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$2,955	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.12	250/250	$3,000	$5,294	$5,294	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$2,646	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,106 (vs do-nothing +$2,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.15	250/250	$3,750	$6,618	$6,618	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$3,303	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,856 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.06	250/250	$1,500	$15,000	$15,000	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$6,415	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,606 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.11	250/250	$2,750	$8,250	$8,250	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$4,087	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,856 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.19	250/250	$4,750	$5,938	$5,938	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$2,995	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,856 (vs do-nothing +$4,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.18	250/250	$4,500	$7,941	$7,941	92%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$3,764	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,606 (vs do-nothing +$4,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.15	250/250	$3,750	$11,250	$11,250	91%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$5,485	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,856 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.21	250/250	$5,250	$9,265	$9,265	91%hist 96%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$3,970	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,356 (vs do-nothing +$5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.26	250/250	$6,500	$8,125	$8,125	90%hist 96%	21%hist 22%	91%	+$3,598	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,606 (vs do-nothing +$6,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.10	250/250	$2,500	$25,000	$25,000	90%hist 96%	20%hist 22%	91%	+$10,458	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,606 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.18	250/250	$4,500	$13,500	$13,500	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$5,456	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,606 (vs do-nothing +$4,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.26	250/250	$6,500	$11,471	$11,471	89%hist 86%	24%hist 22%	90%	+$4,729	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,606 (vs do-nothing +$6,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.37	250/250	$9,250	$11,562	$11,562	87%hist 86%	28%hist 22%	88%	+$4,577	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,356 (vs do-nothing +$9,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.32	250/250	$8,000	$14,118	$14,118	87%hist 86%	28%hist 22%	88%	+$5,511	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,106 (vs do-nothing +$7,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.25	250/250	$6,250	$18,750	$18,750	86%hist 86%	29%hist 22%	88%	+$7,497	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,356 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.39	250/250	$9,750	$17,206	$17,206	84%hist 86%	34%hist 31%	86%	+$6,208	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,856 (vs do-nothing +$9,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.32	250/250	$8,000	$24,000	$24,000	82%hist 86%	37%hist 31%	85%	+$8,282	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,106 (vs do-nothing +$7,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.52	250/250	$13,000	$16,250	$16,250	82%hist 86%	39%hist 31%	85%	+$5,507	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$14,106 (vs do-nothing +$12,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.49	250/250	$12,250	$21,618	$21,618	81%hist 86%	40%hist 40%	84%	+$7,578	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,356 (vs do-nothing +$12,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.42	250/250	$10,500	$31,500	$31,500	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$9,667	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$11,606 (vs do-nothing +$10,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.58	250/250	$14,500	$25,588	$25,588	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$7,720	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$15,606 (vs do-nothing +$14,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.72	250/250	$18,000	$22,500	$22,500	76%hist 83%	52%hist 45%	80%	+$6,164	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$19,106 (vs do-nothing +$17,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.70	250/250	$17,500	$30,882	$30,882	74%hist 83%	56%hist 45%	79%	+$8,251	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,606 (vs do-nothing +$17,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$22	24d	27 Nov 2026	$1.01	250/250	$25,250	$31,562	$31,562	68%hist 66%	68%hist 55%	76%	+$7,177	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$26,356 (vs do-nothing +$25,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-11-04 04:19