50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.90 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,188/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $989/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 31 × $16 | 88% | $4,650 | $2,518 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 40 × $16 | 78% | $4,667 | $1,261 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 33 × $17.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 21.0% | 97% | 7% | $66 | $990 | -$3,660 | $7,841 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $17.50 21.0% OTM over spot $14.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $66 credit for the 2d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 97% EV / mo +$523 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-140 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,466 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $17.50): -$7,841 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $17): -$4,447 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,288 (+$17,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$792, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 21.0% | 97% | 7% | $100 | $1,500 | -$3,150 | $11,880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 21.0% OTM over spot $14.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 97% EV / mo +$793 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-7,723 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,221 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,880 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,880 (+$18,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $16 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.7% | 88% | 25% | $210 | $3,150 | -$1,500 | $7,972 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16 10.7% OTM over spot $14.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $210 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $16.13) 90% EV / mo +$1,591 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,906 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$681 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $16.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16): -$7,972 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (29 × $17): -$7,586 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,558 (+$14,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,478, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 31 × $16 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.7% | 88% | 11% | $310 | $4,650 | — | $11,767 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 31 × $16 10.7% OTM over spot $14.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $310 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $16.13) 90% EV / mo +$2,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,203 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,006 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 31 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $16.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (31 × $16): -$11,767 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17): -$4,970 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,738 (+$13,187 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,658, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 37 × $15.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.2% | 80% | 40% | $629 | $9,435 | +$4,785 | $15,636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $15.50 7.2% OTM over spot $14.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.19 mid) = $629 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,435/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.69) 84% EV / mo +$3,970 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~11.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,296 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$892 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $15.50): -$15,636 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,037 (+$10,888 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,957, the opportunity cost of earning $9,435/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 30 × $18 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 92% | 16% | $300 | $1,000 | -$3,667 | $5,388 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $18 24.5% OTM over spot $14.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $300 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 93% EV / mo +$469 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,577 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,133 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.63–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $18): -$5,388 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17): -$5,232 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,620 (+$19,305 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,460, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.5% | 92% | 16% | $500 | $1,667 | -$3,000 | $8,980 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 24.5% OTM over spot $14.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $500 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 93% EV / mo +$782 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $488 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,555 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$8,980 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,980 (+$20,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,100, the opportunity cost of earning $1,667/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $17 | 17 Jul | 9d | 17.6% | 87% | 27% | $920 | $3,067 | -$1,600 | $12,401 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $17 17.6% OTM over spot $14.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.21 mid) = $920 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,067/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.21) 89% EV / mo +$1,413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,205 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,603 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 509 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $17.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $17): -$12,401 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,046 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,448 (+$16,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-368, the opportunity cost of earning $3,067/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $16 | 17 Jul | 9d | 10.7% | 78% | 35% | $1,400 | $4,667 | — | $14,184 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $16 10.7% OTM over spot $14.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.38 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $16.38) 82% EV / mo +$1,616 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.7] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,536 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,484 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,063 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $16.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $16): -$14,184 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,616 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,800 (+$13,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,720, the opportunity cost of earning $4,667/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $15 | 17 Jul | 9d | 3.7% | 63% | 78% | $2,800 | $9,333 | +$4,667 | $21,680 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 3.7% OTM over spot $14.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.62 mid) = $2,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 73% EV / mo +$1,333 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~14.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,558 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$579 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.89–$1.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,919 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,925 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$21,680 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,680 (+$8,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,080 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,600, the opportunity cost of earning $9,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.101 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$29,925 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,080
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 31/50 | $4,650 | $4,659 | 88% | 90% | +$2,349 | -$11,767 | 37.7% | $-16,738 (vs do-nothing $-3,658) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 19/50 | $4,845 | $5,484 | 80% | 84% | +$2,038 | -$8,029 | 25.7% | $-16,139 (vs do-nothing $-3,059) |
| $16 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 40/50 | $4,667 | $4,203 | 78% | 82% | +$1,616 | -$14,184 | 45.4% | $-16,800 (vs do-nothing $-3,720) |
| $16 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 50/50 | $4,594 | $3,605 | 74% | 79% | +$1,085 | -$17,030 | 54.5% | $-17,030 (vs do-nothing $-3,950) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 35/50 | $4,667 | $4,466 | 71% | 77% | +$780 | -$13,986 | 44.8% | $-17,910 (vs do-nothing $-4,830) |
| $15 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 12/50 | $4,680 | $5,686 | 69% | 76% | +$1,153 | -$5,563 | 17.8% | $-15,504 (vs do-nothing $-2,424) |
| $15.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 41/50 | $4,612 | $4,096 | 68% | 76% | +$743 | -$15,563 | 49.8% | $-17,918 (vs do-nothing $-4,838) |
| $15 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 25/50 | $4,667 | $4,991 | 63% | 73% | +$667 | -$10,840 | 34.7% | $-17,380 (vs do-nothing $-4,300) |
| $15 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 31/50 | $4,650 | $4,659 | 61% | 72% | +$757 | -$12,697 | 40.6% | $-17,668 (vs do-nothing $-4,588) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 25/50 | $4,594 | $4,918 | 54% | 69% | +$474 | -$11,040 | 35.3% | $-17,580 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 18/50 | $4,620 | $5,311 | 54% | 69% | +$544 | -$8,327 | 26.6% | $-16,698 (vs do-nothing $-3,618) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 8/50 | $5,160 | $6,376 | 53% | 68% | +$681 | -$3,973 | 12.7% | $-14,960 (vs do-nothing $-1,880) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.