50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,547/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $716/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,825 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 30 × $17 | 89% | $5,400 | $3,067 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 38 × $17 | 75% | $5,320 | $1,644 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 48 × $20 | 10 Jul | 2d | 28.4% | 99+% | 1% | $48 | $720 | -$4,680 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $20 28.4% OTM over spot $15.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $48 credit for the 2d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99+% EV / mo +$701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,795 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,406 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $22 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$447 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-447 (+$23,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$10,738, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 34 × $17.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.4% | 94% | 11% | $238 | $3,570 | -$1,830 | $7,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $238 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,570/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 95% EV / mo +$2,844 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,229 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,283 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 125 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $17.50): -$7,708 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$3,579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,287 (+$12,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-102, the opportunity cost of earning $3,570/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.4% | 94% | 11% | $350 | $5,250 | -$150 | $11,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $350 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.57) 95% EV / mo +$4,182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,978 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,887 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 158 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $17.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,335 (+$12,490 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-150, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 30 × $17 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.1% | 89% | 12% | $360 | $5,400 | — | $8,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $17 9.1% OTM over spot $15.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 91% EV / mo +$3,760 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$944 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $17): -$8,151 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17): -$4,474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,625 (+$11,200 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,440, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 34 × $16.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 5.9% | 80% | 41% | $714 | $10,710 | +$5,310 | $10,632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $16.50 5.9% OTM over spot $15.57 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $714 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $16.72) 85% EV / mo +$6,094 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,834 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$720 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 724 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $16.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $16.50): -$10,632 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$3,579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,211 (+$9,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,026, the opportunity cost of earning $10,710/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 27 × $20 | 17 Jul | 9d | 28.4% | 95% | 10% | $216 | $720 | -$4,600 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $20 28.4% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $216 credit for the 9d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $20.09) 95% EV / mo +$461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,601 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,140 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.23/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 137 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $21 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $20.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$5,145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,145 (+$18,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,040, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $19 | 17 Jul | 9d | 22.0% | 92% | 17% | $550 | $1,833 | -$3,487 | $3,635 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $19 22.0% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $19.14) 93% EV / mo +$882 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,523 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,594 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 292 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $20 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $19.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $19): -$3,635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,635 (+$20,190 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $18 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.6% | 86% | 30% | $1,058 | $3,527 | -$1,793 | $7,393 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.24 mid) = $1,058 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,527/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $18.24) 88% EV / mo +$1,653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,115 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,554 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 609 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $18.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18): -$7,393 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$895 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,287 (+$15,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,898, the opportunity cost of earning $3,527/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $17 | 17 Jul | 9d | 9.1% | 75% | 39% | $1,596 | $5,320 | — | $9,185 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17 9.1% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.43 mid) = $1,596 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $17.43) 81% EV / mo +$1,938 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,409 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,222 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,174 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $17.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17): -$9,185 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,869 (+$11,956 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-684, the opportunity cost of earning $5,320/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 45 × $16 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.7% | 60% | 84% | $3,195 | $10,650 | +$5,330 | $14,072 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $16 2.7% OTM over spot $15.57 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $3,195 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $16.73) 72% EV / mo +$2,288 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.5-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~13.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$54 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,021 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $16.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,825 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $16): -$14,072 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,190 (+$8,635 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,005, the opportunity cost of earning $10,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.118 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,825 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,185
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 30/50 | $5,400 | $6,934 | 89% | 91% | +$3,760 | -$8,151 | 26.1% | $-12,625 (vs do-nothing $-1,440) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 17/50 | $5,355 | $8,352 | 80% | 85% | +$3,047 | -$5,316 | 17.0% | $-12,698 (vs do-nothing $-1,513) |
| $17 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 38/50 | $5,320 | $5,954 | 75% | 81% | +$1,938 | -$9,185 | 29.4% | $-11,869 (vs do-nothing $-684) |
| $17 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 47/50 | $5,288 | $4,909 | 72% | 78% | +$1,305 | -$10,514 | 33.6% | $-11,185 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 30/50 | $5,400 | $6,934 | 68% | 76% | +$1,506 | -$8,391 | 26.9% | $-12,865 (vs do-nothing $-1,680) |
| $16 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 11/50 | $5,775 | $9,447 | 66% | 77% | +$2,358 | -$3,836 | 12.3% | $-12,560 (vs do-nothing $-1,375) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 37/50 | $5,342 | $6,088 | 66% | 75% | +$1,205 | -$9,498 | 30.4% | $-12,406 (vs do-nothing $-1,221) |
| $16 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 23/50 | $5,443 | $7,765 | 60% | 72% | +$1,170 | -$7,192 | 23.0% | $-13,232 (vs do-nothing $-2,047) |
| $16 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 30/50 | $5,288 | $6,822 | 59% | 72% | +$915 | -$8,691 | 27.8% | $-13,165 (vs do-nothing $-1,980) |
| $15.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 24/50 | $5,400 | $7,609 | 53% | 68% | +$903 | -$7,529 | 24.1% | $-13,345 (vs do-nothing $-2,160) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 18/50 | $5,580 | $8,464 | 51% | 68% | +$907 | -$6,133 | 19.6% | $-13,291 (vs do-nothing $-2,106) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 7/50 | $5,880 | $10,002 | 49% | 69% | +$1,487 | -$2,644 | 8.5% | $-12,263 (vs do-nothing $-1,078) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.