50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.63 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,703/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $716/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 41 × $17 | 93% | $4,920 | $3,566 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 49 × $17 | 81% | $4,900 | $1,507 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 48 × $20 | 10 Jul | 2d | 32.4% | 99+% | 1% | $48 | $720 | -$4,200 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $20 32.4% OTM over spot $15.11 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $48 credit for the 2d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99+% EV / mo +$700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,720 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,438 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $22 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.63: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$429 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-429 (+$24,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$10,297, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 43 × $17.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.9% | 96% | 8% | $215 | $3,225 | -$1,695 | $8,923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $17.50 15.9% OTM over spot $15.11 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $215 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $17.55) 97% EV / mo +$2,656 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,835 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,733 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 73 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $18 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $17.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $17.50): -$8,923 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$1,502 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,425 (+$14,775 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$301, the opportunity cost of earning $3,225/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $17 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.5% | 93% | 5% | $328 | $4,920 | — | $10,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $17 12.5% OTM over spot $15.11 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid) = $328 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.09) 94% EV / mo +$3,708 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,006 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,477 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 150 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $17): -$10,435 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,931 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,366 (+$12,834 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,640, the opportunity cost of earning $4,920/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.5% | 93% | 14% | $400 | $6,000 | +$1,080 | $12,726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17 12.5% OTM over spot $15.11 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid) = $400 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.09) 94% EV / mo +$4,522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,801 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 160 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17): -$12,726 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,726 (+$12,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,000, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $16.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.2% | 88% | 25% | $658 | $9,870 | +$4,950 | $14,030 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $16.50 9.2% OTM over spot $15.11 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $658 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $16.64) 90% EV / mo +$6,696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,354 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,350 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $16.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $16.50): -$14,030 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$644 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,674 (+$10,526 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,948, the opportunity cost of earning $9,870/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 36 × $20 | 17 Jul | 9d | 32.4% | 96% | 8% | $216 | $720 | -$4,180 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $20 32.4% OTM over spot $15.11 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $216 credit for the 9d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $20.07) 96% EV / mo +$438 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,652 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,934 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $20 @ 70% POP 58% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 90 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $21 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.63: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $20.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,003 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,003 (+$22,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,723, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 22.5% | 92% | 18% | $600 | $2,000 | -$2,900 | $5,026 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18.50 22.5% OTM over spot $15.11 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.15 mid) = $600 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.65) 92% EV / mo +$978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,994 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,447 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18.50): -$5,026 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,026 (+$20,174 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,700, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 44 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.9% | 85% | 30% | $968 | $3,227 | -$1,673 | $8,383 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $17.50 15.9% OTM over spot $15.11 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $968 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,227/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $17.73) 87% EV / mo +$1,369 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,791 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,401 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $18 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $17.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $17.50): -$8,383 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,287 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,670 (+$15,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $3,227/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $17 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.5% | 81% | 28% | $1,470 | $4,900 | — | $11,393 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $17 12.5% OTM over spot $15.11 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $1,470 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $17.32) 84% EV / mo +$1,888 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,508 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,174 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 838 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $17.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $17): -$11,393 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$215 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,608 (+$13,592 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-882, the opportunity cost of earning $4,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.6% | 60% | 84% | $2,911 | $9,703 | +$4,803 | $14,002 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $15.50 2.6% OTM over spot $15.11 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.74 mid) = $2,911 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,703/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $16.24) 72% EV / mo +$2,145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~14.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,265 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$131 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,039 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $16.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $15.50): -$14,002 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,931 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,933 (+$9,267 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,207, the opportunity cost of earning $9,703/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.115 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,200 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,726
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 41/50 | $4,920 | $5,014 | 93% | 94% | +$3,708 | -$10,435 | 33.4% | $-12,366 (vs do-nothing $-1,640) |
| $16.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 24/50 | $5,040 | $6,664 | 88% | 90% | +$3,419 | -$7,164 | 22.9% | $-12,742 (vs do-nothing $-2,016) |
| $17 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 49/50 | $4,900 | $4,274 | 81% | 84% | +$1,888 | -$11,393 | 36.5% | $-11,608 (vs do-nothing $-882) |
| $16 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 15/50 | $5,175 | $7,609 | 79% | 84% | +$2,891 | -$5,093 | 16.3% | $-12,601 (vs do-nothing $-1,875) |
| $16.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 37/50 | $4,933 | $5,387 | 75% | 80% | +$1,622 | -$10,083 | 32.3% | $-12,872 (vs do-nothing $-2,146) |
| $16.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 44/50 | $4,950 | $4,774 | 72% | 78% | +$1,285 | -$11,111 | 35.6% | $-12,398 (vs do-nothing $-1,672) |
| $16 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 28/50 | $4,947 | $6,211 | 68% | 76% | +$1,324 | -$8,667 | 27.7% | $-13,386 (vs do-nothing $-2,660) |
| $16 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 34/50 | $4,909 | $5,633 | 66% | 75% | +$1,180 | -$9,708 | 31.1% | $-13,140 (vs do-nothing $-2,414) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 9/50 | $4,995 | $7,969 | 65% | 76% | +$2,062 | -$3,380 | 10.8% | $-12,175 (vs do-nothing $-1,449) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 21/50 | $4,970 | $6,864 | 60% | 72% | +$1,099 | -$7,172 | 23.0% | $-13,393 (vs do-nothing $-2,667) |
| $15.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 29/50 | $5,002 | $6,177 | 59% | 71% | +$853 | -$9,295 | 29.7% | $-13,800 (vs do-nothing $-3,074) |
| $15 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 23/50 | $4,916 | $6,630 | 52% | 68% | +$673 | -$8,016 | 25.7% | $-13,808 (vs do-nothing $-3,082) |
| $15 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 16/50 | $4,853 | $7,197 | 51% | 68% | +$740 | -$5,944 | 19.0% | $-13,238 (vs do-nothing $-2,512) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 6/50 | $4,950 | $8,194 | 48% | 68% | +$1,119 | -$2,445 | 7.8% | $-11,884 (vs do-nothing $-1,158) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.