50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,991/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $872/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 38 × $16 | 76% | $5,130 | $1,343 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 47 × $19 | 17 Jul | 8d | 29.3% | 97% | 6% | $235 | $881 | -$4,249 | $3,926 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $19 29.3% OTM over spot $14.69 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.06 mid) = $235 credit for the 8d cycle → $881/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $19.05) 97% EV / mo +$655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-528 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,601 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $19 @ 70% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 93 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $19 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $19.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,725 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $19): -$3,926 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$764 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,689 (+$24,036 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$8,037, the opportunity cost of earning $881/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.1% | 92% | 17% | $600 | $2,250 | -$2,880 | $11,326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 19.1% OTM over spot $14.69 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $17.63) 92% EV / mo +$1,337 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,080 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,159 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 371 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,725 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,326 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,326 (+$17,399 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,400, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 49 × $17 | 17 Jul | 8d | 15.7% | 88% | 25% | $882 | $3,308 | -$1,822 | $13,256 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $17 15.7% OTM over spot $14.69 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $882 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,308/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $17.18) 89% EV / mo +$1,816 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,572 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,696 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 527 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $17.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,725 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $17): -$13,256 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$255 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,510 (+$15,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-784, the opportunity cost of earning $3,308/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $16 | 17 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 76% | 39% | $1,368 | $5,130 | — | $13,396 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16 8.9% OTM over spot $14.69 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.37 mid) = $1,368 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.37) 81% EV / mo +$2,044 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,756 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,244 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.97/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,160 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $16.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,725 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16): -$13,396 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,054 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,450 (+$12,275 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,724, the opportunity cost of earning $5,130/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $15 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 59% | 86% | $2,730 | $10,238 | +$5,108 | $16,323 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $15 2.1% OTM over spot $14.69 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $2,730 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,238/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $15.71) 72% EV / mo +$2,661 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~18.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,477 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$217 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.87–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,028 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $15.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,725 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $15): -$16,323 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,800 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,122 (+$9,603 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,726 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,396, the opportunity cost of earning $10,238/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,725 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,726
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 38/50 | $5,130 | $5,074 | 76% | 81% | +$2,044 | -$13,396 | 42.9% | $-16,450 (vs do-nothing $-3,724) |
| $16 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 44/50 | $5,104 | $4,640 | 72% | 78% | +$1,563 | -$14,543 | 46.5% | $-16,070 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 27/50 | $5,164 | $5,856 | 68% | 77% | +$1,715 | -$10,463 | 33.5% | $-16,317 (vs do-nothing $-3,591) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 34/50 | $5,032 | $5,248 | 65% | 75% | +$1,284 | -$12,394 | 39.7% | $-16,466 (vs do-nothing $-3,740) |
| $15 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 20/50 | $5,250 | $6,418 | 59% | 72% | +$1,365 | -$8,371 | 26.8% | $-16,006 (vs do-nothing $-3,280) |
| $15 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 27/50 | $5,130 | $5,822 | 58% | 71% | +$1,124 | -$10,625 | 34.0% | $-16,479 (vs do-nothing $-3,753) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 21/50 | $4,998 | $6,098 | 51% | 68% | +$890 | -$8,810 | 28.2% | $-16,191 (vs do-nothing $-3,465) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 15/50 | $5,344 | $6,852 | 49% | 68% | +$1,085 | -$6,653 | 21.3% | $-15,561 (vs do-nothing $-2,835) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.