50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,850/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,012/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 43 × $16 | 78% | $4,515 | $762 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 34 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.7% | 92% | 17% | $272 | $1,020 | -$3,495 | $7,241 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $17.50 19.7% OTM over spot $14.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $272 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $17.63) 93% EV / mo +$425 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,141 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 295 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,200 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $17.50): -$7,241 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$3,920 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,161 (+$17,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,088, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.7% | 92% | 17% | $400 | $1,500 | -$3,015 | $10,649 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 19.7% OTM over spot $14.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $400 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $17.63) 93% EV / mo +$624 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-5 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,149 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.56–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,200 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$10,649 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,649 (+$17,551 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 44 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 12.9% | 84% | 33% | $792 | $2,970 | -$1,545 | $13,331 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $16.50 12.9% OTM over spot $14.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $792 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $16.78) 87% EV / mo +$978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,576 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,152 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 733 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $16.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,200 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $16.50): -$13,331 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,470 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,801 (+$13,399 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,552, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 43 × $16 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.5% | 78% | 36% | $1,204 | $4,515 | — | $14,748 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $16 9.5% OTM over spot $14.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.31 mid) = $1,204 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,515/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $16.31) 82% EV / mo +$1,375 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,701 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,586 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $17 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,076 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,200 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $16): -$14,748 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$1,715 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,463 (+$11,737 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,214, the opportunity cost of earning $4,515/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $15 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 60% | 83% | $2,378 | $8,917 | +$4,402 | $16,932 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $15 2.6% OTM over spot $14.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.62 mid) = $2,378 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 72% EV / mo +$1,643 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~17.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,781 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$116 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,965 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,200 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $15): -$16,932 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$2,205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,137 (+$9,063 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,888, the opportunity cost of earning $8,917/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.107 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,200 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,249
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 43/50 | $4,515 | $3,867 | 78% | 82% | +$1,375 | -$14,748 | 47.2% | $-16,463 (vs do-nothing $-4,214) |
| $16 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 48/50 | $4,512 | $3,604 | 72% | 78% | +$675 | -$15,551 | 49.8% | $-16,041 (vs do-nothing $-3,792) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 30/50 | $4,500 | $4,528 | 70% | 77% | +$1,033 | -$11,430 | 36.6% | $-16,329 (vs do-nothing $-4,080) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 35/50 | $4,480 | $4,248 | 66% | 75% | +$668 | -$12,494 | 40.0% | $-16,169 (vs do-nothing $-3,920) |
| $15 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 21/50 | $4,567 | $5,064 | 60% | 72% | +$842 | -$8,673 | 27.8% | $-15,777 (vs do-nothing $-3,528) |
| $15 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 27/50 | $4,482 | $4,666 | 59% | 71% | +$546 | -$10,476 | 33.5% | $-16,110 (vs do-nothing $-3,861) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 23/50 | $4,600 | $4,992 | 52% | 67% | +$198 | -$9,683 | 31.0% | $-16,297 (vs do-nothing $-4,048) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 16/50 | $4,680 | $5,436 | 50% | 67% | +$487 | -$7,088 | 22.7% | $-15,417 (vs do-nothing $-3,168) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.