50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,375/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 38 × $16 | 79% | $4,723 | $1,676 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.8% | 98% | 4% | $184 | $789 | -$3,934 | $6,230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 25.8% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 98% EV / mo +$688 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.7] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-52 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,906 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.47–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 85 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$6,230 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,046 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,276 (+$21,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,796, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.0% | 93% | 14% | $450 | $1,929 | -$2,794 | $11,522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 19.0% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 94% EV / mo +$1,237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,139 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,727 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,522 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,522 (+$17,253 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 38 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.2% | 85% | 30% | $722 | $3,094 | -$1,629 | $12,177 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16.50 12.2% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $722 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,094/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.70) 87% EV / mo +$1,572 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,343 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,555 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 636 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $16.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16.50): -$12,177 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,314 (+$13,461 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,242, the opportunity cost of earning $3,094/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 79% | 32% | $1,102 | $4,723 | — | $13,697 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16 8.8% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,723/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 83% EV / mo +$2,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.7] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,817 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,106 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 966 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16): -$13,697 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,834 (+$11,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,762, the opportunity cost of earning $4,723/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 59% | 85% | $2,242 | $9,609 | +$4,886 | $16,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $15 2.0% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $2,242 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,609/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $15.61) 72% EV / mo +$2,427 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~20.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,876 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$172 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,972 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $15.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $15): -$16,357 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,494 (+$9,281 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,422, the opportunity cost of earning $9,609/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.109 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,775 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,072
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 38/50 | $4,723 | $4,657 | 79% | 83% | +$2,092 | -$13,697 | 43.8% | $-16,834 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 44/50 | $4,714 | $4,289 | 73% | 79% | +$1,404 | -$14,935 | 47.8% | $-16,504 (vs do-nothing $-3,432) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 48/50 | $4,731 | $4,066 | 70% | 77% | +$1,207 | -$15,381 | 49.2% | $-15,904 (vs do-nothing $-2,832) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 27/50 | $4,744 | $5,339 | 70% | 77% | +$1,590 | -$10,758 | 34.4% | $-16,771 (vs do-nothing $-3,699) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 34/50 | $4,736 | $4,910 | 66% | 75% | +$1,135 | -$12,731 | 40.7% | $-16,914 (vs do-nothing $-3,842) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 38/50 | $4,723 | $4,657 | 64% | 74% | +$1,085 | -$13,393 | 42.9% | $-16,530 (vs do-nothing $-3,458) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 19/50 | $4,804 | $5,879 | 59% | 72% | +$1,214 | -$8,178 | 26.2% | $-16,283 (vs do-nothing $-3,211) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 27/50 | $4,860 | $5,454 | 58% | 71% | +$929 | -$10,947 | 35.0% | $-16,960 (vs do-nothing $-3,888) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 31/50 | $4,694 | $5,049 | 58% | 71% | +$824 | -$11,887 | 38.0% | $-16,854 (vs do-nothing $-3,782) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 26/50 | $4,791 | $5,446 | 51% | 68% | +$739 | -$10,671 | 34.1% | $-16,946 (vs do-nothing $-3,874) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 21/50 | $4,860 | $5,814 | 50% | 67% | +$759 | -$9,060 | 29.0% | $-16,642 (vs do-nothing $-3,570) |
| $14.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 14/50 | $4,980 | $6,354 | 47% | 67% | +$914 | -$6,390 | 20.4% | $-15,802 (vs do-nothing $-2,730) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.