FORTRESS FIGHT: BMNR @ $14.71

BE SS: $17.13  |  CC-SS: $19.89  |  50 contracts (5,000 sh)  |  2026-07-10 01:46 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

BMNR @ $14.71   UNDERWATER $2.42 (14.2% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $17.13  |  CC-SS: $19.89  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $13.315/sh)
SP: $18 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.355/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.258/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$71,250(ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000
Normal income ref$9,375/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$786/mo
Unrealized P&L$-28,775fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,688/mo
HEDGE COVER
$786/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$9,375/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $31,250
ML VELOCITY
7.6 mo to earn back $71,250
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $19.89 (probe: $20C 14d) brings only $536/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 13 (live) · RSI 37 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 43 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $18.82 (+28%) · daily UBB $17.18 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 38 contracts at $16 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,688/mo); it brings $4,723/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 38 × $15/7d for $9,609/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 46 × $18.50/7d (98% survival, $789/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,697 (44% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 38 contracts realizes $-21,888 and cuts bleed by $597/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 38 × $16, 79% survival, $4,723/mo (E[net] $1,676/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d38 × $1679%$4,723$1,676

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,676/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 38 × $16 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $4,723/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $16.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $1,629/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $16.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect BMNR to stay flat-to-down near term.
BMNR  spot $14.71 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge46 × $18.5017 Jul7d25.8%98%4%$184$789-$3,934$6,230
Sell 46 × $18.50 25.8% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid)
= $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
98%
Breach risk
2%
POP (stays ≤ $18.55)
98%
EV / mo
+$688
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.7] median  ·  54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~0.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-52
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
3%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,906
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$20 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.47–$1.04)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 85 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (46 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1824 Jul 202610d left+$0.27/sh+$1,220
cycle +$1,404
[+$1,165…+$2,060] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1931 Jul 202618d left+$0.20/sh+$917
cycle +$1,101
[+$509…+$1,788] · 91% credit
73%
surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1924 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$561
cycle +$745
[+$348…+$1,336] · 89% credit
70%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$2031 Jul 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$72
cycle +$256
[-$546…+$899] · 58% credit
76%
surv 69%
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$789/mo
vs 50% target ($4,688/mo)-83%
vs normal income ($9,375/mo)8% covered
Net income (after hedge)$243/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,230
… as % of IC ($31,250)19.9%
… as % of ML ($71,250)8.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.7 mo
Surgical close (46 ct)$-26,496
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $18.32Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$18-18.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $18.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$18.50 (2.2σ)$184$-8,036+$20,739+$5,796
+2.5%$18.96 (2.5σ)$-1,943$-7,784+$20,991+$5,796
+5%$19.43 (2.8σ)$-4,071$-7,532+$21,243+$5,796
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775
− CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$6,230
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,046
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,276 (+$21,499 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,796, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield50 × $17.5017 Jul7d19.0%93%14%$450$1,929-$2,794$11,522
Sell 50 × $17.50 19.0% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid)
= $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $17.59)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,237
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo)  ·  53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without)  ·  ~2.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,139
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,727
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.95)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (50 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1824 Jul 202610d left+$0.28/sh+$1,420
cycle +$1,870
[+$1,266…+$2,114] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.21/sh+$1,073
cycle +$1,523
[+$602…+$1,670] · 90% credit
73%
surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1824 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$707
cycle +$1,157
[+$381…+$1,272] · 89% credit
70%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1931 Jul 202618d left+$0.03/sh+$165
cycle +$615
[-$495…+$686] · 54% credit
76%
surv 69%
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,929/mo
vs 50% target ($4,688/mo)-59%
vs normal income ($9,375/mo)21% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,143/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,522
… as % of IC ($31,250)36.9%
… as % of ML ($71,250)16.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.2 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)$-28,800
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$17-17.59
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $17.59
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$17.50 (1.7σ)$450$-12,827+$15,948+$1,550
+2.5%$17.94 (1.9σ)$-1,738$-12,588+$16,187+$1,550
+5%$18.38 (2.2σ)$-3,925$-12,350+$16,425+$1,550
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775
− CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,522
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,522 (+$17,253 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean38 × $16.5017 Jul7d12.2%85%30%$722$3,094-$1,629$12,177
Sell 38 × $16.50 12.2% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid)
= $722 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,094/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16.50)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $16.70)
87%
EV / mo
+$1,572
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.4] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without)  ·  ~5.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,343
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
21%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,555
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 80% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.93)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 636 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (38 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.30/sh+$1,136
cycle +$1,858
[+$890…+$1,407] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.23/sh+$856
cycle +$1,578
[+$422…+$1,101] · 90% credit
73%
surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$596
cycle +$1,318
[+$274…+$824] · 89% credit
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$175
cycle +$897
[-$387…+$355] · 45% credit
77%
surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1831 Jul 202618d left-$0.08/sh-$318
cycle +$404
[-$997…-$181] · 18% credit
80%
surv 75%
budget: banked $722 debit $318 (44% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$404 cash · rolled 38 ct earn ≈ $3,265/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,094/mo
vs 50% target ($4,688/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($9,375/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,029/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$12,177
… as % of IC ($31,250)39.0%
… as % of ML ($71,250)17.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (38 ct)$-21,888
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $16.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.70
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.70
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.50 (1.1σ)$722$-17,764+$11,011-$342
+2.5%$16.91 (1.3σ)$-845$-17,044+$11,731-$1,909
+5%$17.32 (1.5σ)$-2,413$-16,714+$12,061-$2,242
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775
− CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16.50): -$12,177
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,314 (+$13,461 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,242, the opportunity cost of earning $3,094/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal38 × $1617 Jul7d8.8%79%32%$1,102$4,723$13,697
Sell 38 × $16 8.8% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid)
= $1,102 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,723/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $16.30)
83%
EV / mo
+$2,092
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.7] median  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without)  ·  ~7.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,817
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,106
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 966 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (38 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$1,159
cycle +$2,261
[+$840…+$1,326] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.23/sh+$869
cycle +$1,971
[+$318…+$938] · 89% credit
74%
surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$621
cycle +$1,723
[+$217…+$699] · 89% credit
71%
surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$193
cycle +$1,295
[-$491…+$198] · 36% credit
77%
surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1931 Jul 202618d left-$0.27/sh-$1,030
cycle +$72
[-$2,017…-$1,125] · 0% credit
86%
surv 84%
budget: banked $1,102 debit $1,030 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 38 ct earn ≈ $1,963/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,723/mo
vs 50% target ($4,688/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($9,375/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,657/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,697
… as % of IC ($31,250)43.8%
… as % of ML ($71,250)19.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (38 ct)$-21,888
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.84Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,102$-20,156+$8,619+$38
+2.5%$16.40 (1.0σ)$-418$-19,458+$9,317-$1,482
+5%$16.80 (1.2σ)$-1,938$-18,760+$10,015-$3,002
SS (= V-bounce)$17.13 (1.4σ)$-3,192$-18,340+$10,435-$3,762
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775
− CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16): -$13,697
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,834 (+$11,941 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,762, the opportunity cost of earning $4,723/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal38 × $1517 Jul7d2.0%59%85%$2,242$9,609+$4,886$16,357
Sell 38 × $15 2.0% OTM over spot $14.71 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid)
= $2,242 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,609/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
59%
Breach risk
41%
POP (stays ≤ $15.61)
72%
EV / mo
+$2,427
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo)  ·  65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~20.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $12,876
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
66%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$172
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$18 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.06)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,972 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (38 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.31/sh+$1,194
cycle +$3,436
[+$756…+$1,001] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1524 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$659
cycle +$2,901
[+$96…+$413] · 82% credit
71%
surv 58%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.23/sh+$883
cycle +$3,125
[+$121…+$551] · 82% credit
74%
surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band~$1631 Jul 202618d left+$0.06/sh+$218
cycle +$2,460
[-$719…-$166] · 15% credit
77%
surv 71%
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1824 Jul 202610d left-$0.41/sh-$1,559
cycle +$683
[-$2,998…-$2,066]
92%
surv 91%
budget: banked $2,242 debit $1,559 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$683 cash · rolled 38 ct earn ≈ $1,532/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,609/mo
vs 50% target ($4,688/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($9,375/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,543/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,357
… as % of IC ($31,250)52.3%
… as % of ML ($71,250)23.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (38 ct)$-21,926
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $15.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $14.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-15.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $15.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,242$-24,561+$4,214+$1,178
+2.5%$15.37 (≤1σ, normal week)$817$-23,907+$4,868-$247
+5%$15.75 (≤1σ, normal week)$-608$-23,252+$5,523-$1,672
SS (= V-bounce)$17.13 (1.4σ)$-5,852$-21,000+$7,775-$6,422
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.89, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,775
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,775
− CC assignment net of premium (38 × $15): -$16,357
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$3,137
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,494 (+$9,281 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,422, the opportunity cost of earning $9,609/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on BMNR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.109 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$28,775 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,072

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$167d17 Jul 2026$0.2938/50$4,723$4,65779%83%+$2,092-$13,69743.8%$-16,834 (vs do-nothing $-3,762)
$1614d24 Jul 2026$0.5044/50$4,714$4,28973%79%+$1,404-$14,93547.8%$-16,504 (vs do-nothing $-3,432)
$1621d31 Jul 2026$0.6948/50$4,731$4,06670%77%+$1,207-$15,38149.2%$-15,904 (vs do-nothing $-2,832)
$15.507d17 Jul 2026$0.4127/50$4,744$5,33970%77%+$1,590-$10,75834.4%$-16,771 (vs do-nothing $-3,699)
$15.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.6534/50$4,736$4,91066%75%+$1,135-$12,73140.7%$-16,914 (vs do-nothing $-3,842)
$15.5021d31 Jul 2026$0.8738/50$4,723$4,65764%74%+$1,085-$13,39342.9%$-16,530 (vs do-nothing $-3,458)
$157d17 Jul 2026$0.5919/50$4,804$5,87959%72%+$1,214-$8,17826.2%$-16,283 (vs do-nothing $-3,211)
$1514d24 Jul 2026$0.8427/50$4,860$5,45458%71%+$929-$10,94735.0%$-16,960 (vs do-nothing $-3,888)
$1521d31 Jul 2026$1.0631/50$4,694$5,04958%71%+$824-$11,88738.0%$-16,854 (vs do-nothing $-3,782)
$14.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.2926/50$4,791$5,44651%68%+$739-$10,67134.1%$-16,946 (vs do-nothing $-3,874)
$14.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.0821/50$4,860$5,81450%67%+$759-$9,06029.0%$-16,642 (vs do-nothing $-3,570)
$14.507d17 Jul 2026$0.8314/50$4,980$6,35447%67%+$914-$6,39020.4%$-15,802 (vs do-nothing $-2,730)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 01:46