50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.88 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,482/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 37 × $16 | 79% | $4,757 | $1,425 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.9% | 97% | 7% | $184 | $789 | -$3,969 | $6,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 25.9% OTM over spot $14.70 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 97% EV / mo +$564 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.7] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-52 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,040 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.51–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 87 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,650 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$6,145 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,038 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,183 (+$21,467 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,979 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,796, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.7% | 90% | 20% | $650 | $2,786 | -$1,971 | $13,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17 15.7% OTM over spot $14.70 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $650 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,786/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $17.14) 91% EV / mo +$1,681 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-3.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,057 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,570 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $17.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,650 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17): -$13,729 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,729 (+$14,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,979 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-750, the opportunity cost of earning $2,786/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 37 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.3% | 85% | 30% | $740 | $3,171 | -$1,586 | $11,751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16.50 12.3% OTM over spot $14.70 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.21 mid) = $740 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,171/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.70) 88% EV / mo +$1,735 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.1] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,929 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,573 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 635 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $16.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,650 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16.50): -$11,751 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,125 (+$13,525 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,979 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,146, the opportunity cost of earning $3,171/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.9% | 79% | 35% | $1,110 | $4,757 | — | $13,231 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 8.9% OTM over spot $14.70 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $1,110 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,757/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 83% EV / mo +$2,246 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,133 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,040 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,650 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$13,231 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,605 (+$12,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,979 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,626, the opportunity cost of earning $4,757/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 59% | 85% | $2,232 | $9,566 | +$4,809 | $15,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 2.1% OTM over spot $14.70 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.63 mid) = $2,232 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,566/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $15.63) 72% EV / mo +$2,801 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,110 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$186 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,013 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $15.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,650 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$15,321 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,634 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,955 (+$9,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,979 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,976, the opportunity cost of earning $9,566/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,650 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,979
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 37/50 | $4,757 | $4,751 | 79% | 83% | +$2,246 | -$13,231 | 42.3% | $-16,605 (vs do-nothing $-3,626) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 46/50 | $4,830 | $4,284 | 73% | 79% | +$1,445 | -$15,575 | 49.8% | $-16,613 (vs do-nothing $-3,634) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 49/50 | $4,830 | $4,104 | 70% | 77% | +$1,237 | -$15,611 | 50.0% | $-15,870 (vs do-nothing $-2,891) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 26/50 | $4,791 | $5,446 | 70% | 78% | +$1,791 | -$10,259 | 32.8% | $-16,489 (vs do-nothing $-3,510) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 35/50 | $4,875 | $4,989 | 66% | 75% | +$1,241 | -$13,040 | 41.7% | $-16,934 (vs do-nothing $-3,955) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 39/50 | $4,847 | $4,721 | 64% | 74% | +$1,118 | -$13,673 | 43.8% | $-16,528 (vs do-nothing $-3,549) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 18/50 | $4,783 | $5,917 | 59% | 72% | +$1,401 | -$7,660 | 24.5% | $-15,967 (vs do-nothing $-2,988) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 27/50 | $4,860 | $5,454 | 58% | 71% | +$984 | -$10,897 | 34.9% | $-16,867 (vs do-nothing $-3,888) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 32/50 | $4,891 | $5,186 | 58% | 71% | +$948 | -$12,179 | 39.0% | $-16,851 (vs do-nothing $-3,872) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 26/50 | $4,866 | $5,520 | 51% | 68% | +$792 | -$10,571 | 33.8% | $-16,801 (vs do-nothing $-3,822) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 21/50 | $4,860 | $5,814 | 50% | 68% | +$788 | -$9,021 | 28.9% | $-16,549 (vs do-nothing $-3,570) |
| $14.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 13/50 | $4,847 | $6,281 | 48% | 67% | +$1,078 | -$5,858 | 18.7% | $-15,462 (vs do-nothing $-2,483) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.