50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.91 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 36 × $16 | 76% | $4,937 | $1,562 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.5% | 96% | 7% | $184 | $789 | -$4,149 | $6,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 24.5% OTM over spot $14.87 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 97% EV / mo +$522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.8] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $232 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,892 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.51–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 112 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$6,323 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,046 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,368 (+$20,707 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,704, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.7% | 92% | 16% | $450 | $1,929 | -$3,009 | $11,622 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 17.7% OTM over spot $14.87 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 93% EV / mo +$1,148 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-4.2] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,038 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,712 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,622 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,622 (+$16,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,450, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.0% | 83% | 35% | $756 | $3,240 | -$1,697 | $11,536 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $16.50 11.0% OTM over spot $14.87 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $756 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $16.72) 86% EV / mo +$1,498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,874 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,391 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $16.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $16.50): -$11,536 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,660 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,196 (+$12,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,124, the opportunity cost of earning $3,240/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 36 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.6% | 76% | 38% | $1,152 | $4,937 | — | $12,940 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $16 7.6% OTM over spot $14.87 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $1,152 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,937/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.32) 81% EV / mo +$1,928 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,611 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$930 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.65–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,135 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $16.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $16): -$12,940 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,660 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,600 (+$11,475 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,528, the opportunity cost of earning $4,937/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.3% | 66% | 70% | $2,300 | $9,857 | +$4,920 | $19,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15.50 4.3% OTM over spot $14.87 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid) = $2,300 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $15.97) 75% EV / mo +$2,902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~13.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,873 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$501 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,636 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $15.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15.50): -$19,772 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,772 (+$8,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,700, the opportunity cost of earning $9,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,075 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,072
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 36/50 | $4,937 | $5,051 | 76% | 81% | +$1,928 | -$12,940 | 41.4% | $-16,600 (vs do-nothing $-3,528) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 43/50 | $4,884 | $4,548 | 70% | 77% | +$1,227 | -$14,553 | 46.6% | $-16,383 (vs do-nothing $-3,311) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 47/50 | $4,969 | $4,376 | 68% | 76% | +$1,187 | -$14,920 | 47.7% | $-15,704 (vs do-nothing $-2,632) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 25/50 | $4,929 | $5,750 | 66% | 75% | +$1,451 | -$9,886 | 31.6% | $-16,422 (vs do-nothing $-3,350) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 33/50 | $4,950 | $5,257 | 63% | 73% | +$1,032 | -$12,258 | 39.2% | $-16,702 (vs do-nothing $-3,630) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 38/50 | $4,994 | $4,980 | 62% | 73% | +$1,018 | -$13,279 | 42.5% | $-16,416 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 31/50 | $5,004 | $5,440 | 56% | 70% | +$841 | -$11,732 | 37.5% | $-16,699 (vs do-nothing $-3,627) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 25/50 | $4,875 | $5,696 | 55% | 69% | +$821 | -$10,011 | 32.0% | $-16,547 (vs do-nothing $-3,475) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 18/50 | $5,091 | $6,363 | 55% | 70% | +$1,112 | -$7,658 | 24.5% | $-16,024 (vs do-nothing $-2,952) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.