50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,054/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 37 × $16 | 78% | $4,599 | $1,386 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.6% | 97% | 7% | $184 | $789 | -$3,810 | $5,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 25.6% OTM over spot $14.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 97% EV / mo +$530 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.8] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-73 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,904 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.47–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 85 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$5,704 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$1,000 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,704 (+$21,371 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,796, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.8% | 93% | 15% | $450 | $1,929 | -$2,670 | $10,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 18.8% OTM over spot $14.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 93% EV / mo +$1,195 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,194 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,725 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 252 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$10,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,950 (+$17,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 37 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.0% | 85% | 31% | $703 | $3,013 | -$1,586 | $11,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16.50 12.0% OTM over spot $14.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $703 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,013/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.70) 87% EV / mo +$1,451 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,350 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,512 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 644 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $16.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16.50): -$11,433 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,683 (+$13,392 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,183, the opportunity cost of earning $3,013/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.6% | 78% | 35% | $1,073 | $4,599 | — | $12,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 8.6% OTM over spot $14.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $1,073 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,599/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 82% EV / mo +$1,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.0-4.2] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,072 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,075 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,047 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$12,913 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$3,250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,163 (+$11,912 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,663, the opportunity cost of earning $4,599/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 58% | 87% | $2,160 | $9,257 | +$4,659 | $15,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 1.8% OTM over spot $14.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.61 mid) = $2,160 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $15.62) 71% EV / mo +$2,327 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~20.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,761 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$201 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,059 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $5 below CC-SS $19.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $15.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,075 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$15,048 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,548 (+$9,527 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,048, the opportunity cost of earning $9,257/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.113 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,075 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,500
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 37/50 | $4,599 | $4,593 | 78% | 82% | +$1,943 | -$12,913 | 41.3% | $-16,163 (vs do-nothing $-3,663) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 43/50 | $4,607 | $4,241 | 72% | 78% | +$1,349 | -$14,104 | 45.1% | $-15,854 (vs do-nothing $-3,354) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 46/50 | $4,534 | $3,989 | 70% | 77% | +$1,145 | -$14,214 | 45.5% | $-15,214 (vs do-nothing $-2,714) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 26/50 | $4,680 | $5,334 | 69% | 77% | +$1,570 | -$10,036 | 32.1% | $-16,036 (vs do-nothing $-3,536) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 34/50 | $4,663 | $4,837 | 65% | 75% | +$1,030 | -$12,376 | 39.6% | $-16,376 (vs do-nothing $-3,876) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 37/50 | $4,599 | $4,593 | 64% | 74% | +$1,038 | -$12,617 | 40.4% | $-15,867 (vs do-nothing $-3,367) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/50 | $4,629 | $5,763 | 58% | 71% | +$1,164 | -$7,524 | 24.1% | $-15,524 (vs do-nothing $-3,024) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 25/50 | $4,554 | $5,268 | 58% | 71% | +$878 | -$9,825 | 31.4% | $-16,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,575) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 30/50 | $4,586 | $5,000 | 57% | 71% | +$842 | -$11,130 | 35.6% | $-16,130 (vs do-nothing $-3,630) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.31 | 25/50 | $4,679 | $5,393 | 51% | 68% | +$753 | -$9,925 | 31.8% | $-16,175 (vs do-nothing $-3,675) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 20/50 | $4,629 | $5,643 | 49% | 67% | +$681 | -$8,400 | 26.9% | $-15,900 (vs do-nothing $-3,400) |
| $14.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 13/50 | $4,680 | $6,114 | 47% | 66% | +$837 | -$5,772 | 18.5% | $-15,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,522) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.