50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.27 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 39 × $16 | 78% | $4,346 | $1,147 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.5% | 96% | 7% | $184 | $789 | -$3,557 | $3,369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 25.5% OTM over spot $14.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 97% EV / mo +$519 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-73 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,786 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.46–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 83 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$3,369 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,174 (+$21,026 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,888, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.7% | 93% | 15% | $400 | $1,714 | -$2,631 | $8,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 18.7% OTM over spot $14.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 93% EV / mo +$991 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,654 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$8,462 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,462 (+$16,738 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 39 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.9% | 85% | 31% | $663 | $2,841 | -$1,504 | $10,149 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16.50 11.9% OTM over spot $14.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $663 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,841/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $16.68) 87% EV / mo +$1,237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,736 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,583 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 644 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16.50): -$10,149 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,214 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,363 (+$12,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,301, the opportunity cost of earning $2,841/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.5% | 78% | 34% | $1,014 | $4,346 | — | $11,748 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16 8.5% OTM over spot $14.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.28 mid) = $1,014 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,346/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $16.28) 82% EV / mo +$1,600 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,723 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,164 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,028 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16): -$11,748 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,214 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,962 (+$11,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,900, the opportunity cost of earning $4,346/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 58% | 87% | $2,052 | $8,794 | +$4,449 | $13,329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 1.8% OTM over spot $14.74 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.59 mid) = $2,052 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,794/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $15.59) 71% EV / mo +$1,889 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~19.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$167 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $18 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,065 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $19.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,200 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$13,329 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$2,817 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,146 (+$9,054 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,084, the opportunity cost of earning $8,794/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,200 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,062
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,173 | 78% | 82% | +$1,600 | -$11,748 | 37.6% | $-13,962 (vs do-nothing $-3,900) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 43/50 | $4,331 | $3,935 | 72% | 78% | +$1,138 | -$12,050 | 38.6% | $-13,459 (vs do-nothing $-3,397) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 46/50 | $4,337 | $3,774 | 70% | 77% | +$890 | -$12,017 | 38.5% | $-12,822 (vs do-nothing $-2,760) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 26/50 | $4,346 | $4,897 | 69% | 77% | +$1,269 | -$8,794 | 28.1% | $-13,624 (vs do-nothing $-3,562) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 33/50 | $4,384 | $4,546 | 65% | 74% | +$928 | -$10,403 | 33.3% | $-13,824 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 45/50 | $4,307 | $3,800 | 64% | 73% | $-80 | -$13,961 | 44.7% | $-14,967 (vs do-nothing $-4,905) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 18/50 | $4,397 | $5,394 | 58% | 71% | +$945 | -$6,664 | 21.3% | $-13,104 (vs do-nothing $-3,042) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 25/50 | $4,339 | $4,946 | 58% | 70% | +$712 | -$8,656 | 27.7% | $-13,687 (vs do-nothing $-3,625) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 30/50 | $4,414 | $4,743 | 57% | 70% | +$652 | -$9,727 | 31.1% | $-13,752 (vs do-nothing $-3,690) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 24/50 | $4,320 | $4,983 | 51% | 67% | +$502 | -$8,430 | 27.0% | $-13,662 (vs do-nothing $-3,600) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 20/50 | $4,457 | $5,343 | 49% | 67% | +$530 | -$7,465 | 23.9% | $-13,502 (vs do-nothing $-3,440) |
| $14.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 13/50 | $4,457 | $5,733 | 46% | 66% | +$612 | -$5,164 | 16.5% | $-12,610 (vs do-nothing $-2,548) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.