50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.43 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,679/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 39 × $16 | 74% | $4,346 | $1,099 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.8% | 96% | 9% | $184 | $789 | -$3,557 | $4,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 23.8% OTM over spot $14.94 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 96% EV / mo +$413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $55 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,381 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 115 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,946 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$4,079 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$867 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,199 (+$20,001 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,087 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,888, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.1% | 91% | 18% | $400 | $1,714 | -$2,631 | $9,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 17.1% OTM over spot $14.94 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 92% EV / mo +$725 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,238 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,946 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$9,233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,487 (+$15,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,087 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 40 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.4% | 82% | 37% | $680 | $2,914 | -$1,431 | $11,027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $16.50 10.4% OTM over spot $14.94 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $680 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.68) 84% EV / mo +$747 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,310 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 803 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,946 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $16.50): -$11,027 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,447 (+$11,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,087 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $2,914/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.1% | 74% | 40% | $1,014 | $4,346 | — | $12,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16 7.1% OTM over spot $14.94 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.28 mid) = $1,014 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,346/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $16.28) 79% EV / mo +$820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,167 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$867 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,208 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,946 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16): -$12,350 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,987 (+$10,213 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,087 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,900, the opportunity cost of earning $4,346/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 97% | $2,052 | $8,794 | +$4,449 | $13,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 0.4% OTM over spot $14.94 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.59 mid) = $2,052 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,794/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $15.59) 67% EV / mo +$425 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~25.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,300 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$424 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,278 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $19.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,946 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$13,884 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,171 (+$8,029 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,087 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,084, the opportunity cost of earning $8,794/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,946 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,087
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,173 | 74% | 79% | +$820 | -$12,350 | 39.5% | $-14,987 (vs do-nothing $-3,900) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 44/50 | $4,431 | $3,980 | 70% | 76% | +$575 | -$13,009 | 41.6% | $-14,563 (vs do-nothing $-3,476) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 47/50 | $4,431 | $3,813 | 67% | 74% | +$427 | -$13,003 | 41.6% | $-13,907 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 26/50 | $4,346 | $4,897 | 65% | 73% | +$505 | -$9,195 | 29.4% | $-14,649 (vs do-nothing $-3,562) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 33/50 | $4,384 | $4,546 | 62% | 72% | +$363 | -$10,912 | 34.9% | $-14,849 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 46/50 | $4,403 | $3,840 | 61% | 70% | $-649 | -$14,981 | 47.9% | $-16,101 (vs do-nothing $-5,014) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 30/50 | $4,414 | $4,743 | 55% | 68% | +$217 | -$10,190 | 32.6% | $-14,777 (vs do-nothing $-3,690) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 25/50 | $4,339 | $4,946 | 54% | 67% | +$182 | -$9,042 | 28.9% | $-14,712 (vs do-nothing $-3,625) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 18/50 | $4,397 | $5,394 | 54% | 67% | +$213 | -$6,942 | 22.2% | $-14,129 (vs do-nothing $-3,042) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.