50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,679/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $786/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 39 × $16 | 75% | $4,346 | $1,105 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $18.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.0% | 96% | 9% | $184 | $789 | -$3,557 | $3,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $18.50 24.0% OTM over spot $14.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $184 credit for the 7d cycle → $789/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $18.55) 96% EV / mo +$425 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $71 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,422 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $19 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18.50 is $1 below CC-SS $19.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $18.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,949 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $18.50): -$3,990 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$859 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,099 (+$20,101 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,987 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,888, the opportunity cost of earning $789/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.3% | 91% | 18% | $400 | $1,714 | -$2,631 | $9,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 17.3% OTM over spot $14.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 92% EV / mo +$755 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $850 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,280 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,949 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$9,136 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,387 (+$15,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,987 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 40 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.6% | 82% | 37% | $680 | $2,914 | -$1,431 | $10,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $16.50 10.6% OTM over spot $14.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $680 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.68) 85% EV / mo +$804 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,341 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 790 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,949 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $16.50): -$10,949 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,147 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,347 (+$11,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,987 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $2,914/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $16 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.2% | 75% | 40% | $1,014 | $4,346 | — | $12,274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16 7.2% OTM over spot $14.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.28 mid) = $1,014 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,346/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $16.28) 79% EV / mo +$905 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~8.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,059 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$897 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,187 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,949 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16): -$12,274 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,362 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,887 (+$10,313 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,987 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,900, the opportunity cost of earning $4,346/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.5% | 54% | 96% | $2,052 | $8,794 | +$4,449 | $13,814 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 0.5% OTM over spot $14.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.59 mid) = $2,052 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,794/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $15.59) 67% EV / mo +$580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~24.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,741 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$398 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,261 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $19.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,949 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$13,814 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,006 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,071 (+$8,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,987 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,084, the opportunity cost of earning $8,794/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,949 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,987
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,173 | 75% | 79% | +$905 | -$12,274 | 39.3% | $-14,887 (vs do-nothing $-3,900) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 44/50 | $4,431 | $3,980 | 70% | 76% | +$637 | -$12,924 | 41.4% | $-14,463 (vs do-nothing $-3,476) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 47/50 | $4,431 | $3,813 | 67% | 75% | +$478 | -$12,912 | 41.3% | $-13,807 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 26/50 | $4,346 | $4,897 | 65% | 73% | +$587 | -$9,145 | 29.3% | $-14,549 (vs do-nothing $-3,562) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 33/50 | $4,384 | $4,546 | 63% | 72% | +$422 | -$10,848 | 34.7% | $-14,749 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 46/50 | $4,403 | $3,840 | 61% | 71% | $-590 | -$14,892 | 47.7% | $-16,001 (vs do-nothing $-5,014) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 30/50 | $4,414 | $4,743 | 55% | 68% | +$261 | -$10,132 | 32.4% | $-14,677 (vs do-nothing $-3,690) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 25/50 | $4,339 | $4,946 | 55% | 68% | +$237 | -$8,993 | 28.8% | $-14,612 (vs do-nothing $-3,625) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 18/50 | $4,397 | $5,394 | 54% | 67% | +$290 | -$6,907 | 22.1% | $-14,029 (vs do-nothing $-3,042) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.