50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.58 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,214/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $643/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 40 × $16.50 | 76% | $4,629 | $975 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 50 × $20 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.7% | 97% | 6% | $150 | $643 | -$3,986 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 30.7% OTM over spot $15.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 7d cycle → $643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $20.04) 97% EV / mo +$401 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-255 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,356 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.58: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $20.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,018 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7 (+$24,018 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,063 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$11,056, the opportunity cost of earning $643/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.6% | 91% | 18% | $450 | $1,929 | -$2,700 | $7,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 17.6% OTM over spot $15.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.09) 92% EV / mo +$866 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,840 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,706 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $18.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,018 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,456 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,463 (+$16,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,063 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $17 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.1% | 83% | 36% | $720 | $3,086 | -$1,543 | $8,573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $17 11.1% OTM over spot $15.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $720 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.21) 85% EV / mo +$1,130 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,426 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 714 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $17.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,018 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $17): -$8,573 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,096 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,675 (+$12,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,063 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-612, the opportunity cost of earning $3,086/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.8% | 76% | 37% | $1,080 | $4,629 | — | $11,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $16.50 7.8% OTM over spot $15.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.80) 80% EV / mo +$1,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.5-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,700 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,234 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,105 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $16.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,018 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $16.50): -$11,245 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,211 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,463 (+$10,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,063 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,400, the opportunity cost of earning $4,629/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 37 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.3% | 57% | 90% | $2,183 | $9,356 | +$4,727 | $12,918 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $15.50 1.3% OTM over spot $15.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $2,183 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,356/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $16.12) 70% EV / mo +$1,355 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~19.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,255 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$172 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,058 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $16.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,018 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $15.50): -$12,918 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,875 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,799 (+$8,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,063 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,736, the opportunity cost of earning $9,356/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.122 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,018 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,063
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 40/50 | $4,629 | $4,779 | 76% | 80% | +$1,119 | -$11,245 | 36.0% | $-13,463 (vs do-nothing $-2,400) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 44/50 | $4,620 | $4,453 | 71% | 77% | +$871 | -$11,402 | 36.5% | $-12,735 (vs do-nothing $-1,672) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 47/50 | $4,633 | $4,228 | 69% | 76% | +$844 | -$11,239 | 36.0% | $-11,909 (vs do-nothing $-846) |
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 27/50 | $4,744 | $5,925 | 67% | 75% | +$972 | -$8,562 | 27.4% | $-13,655 (vs do-nothing $-2,592) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 34/50 | $4,736 | $5,361 | 64% | 73% | +$720 | -$9,966 | 31.9% | $-13,511 (vs do-nothing $-2,448) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 38/50 | $4,614 | $4,923 | 63% | 74% | +$660 | -$10,379 | 33.2% | $-13,039 (vs do-nothing $-1,976) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 19/50 | $4,804 | $6,619 | 57% | 70% | +$696 | -$6,633 | 21.2% | $-13,495 (vs do-nothing $-2,432) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 31/50 | $4,650 | $5,514 | 57% | 70% | +$534 | -$9,397 | 30.1% | $-13,605 (vs do-nothing $-2,542) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 25/50 | $4,607 | $5,946 | 56% | 69% | +$595 | -$8,053 | 25.8% | $-13,588 (vs do-nothing $-2,525) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 26/50 | $4,754 | $6,014 | 50% | 67% | +$406 | -$8,583 | 27.5% | $-13,897 (vs do-nothing $-2,834) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 20/50 | $4,714 | $6,450 | 48% | 66% | +$450 | -$6,963 | 22.3% | $-13,603 (vs do-nothing $-2,540) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 14/50 | $4,860 | $7,071 | 45% | 64% | +$358 | -$5,280 | 16.9% | $-13,247 (vs do-nothing $-2,184) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.