50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.55 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,357/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $643/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 38 × $16.50 | 76% | $4,234 | $1,052 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 50 × $20 | 17 Jul | 7d | 31.0% | 97% | 6% | $150 | $643 | -$3,591 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 31.0% OTM over spot $15.27 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 7d cycle → $643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $20.04) 97% EV / mo +$400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-199 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,109 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.55: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $20.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,087 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $62 (+$24,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,930 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$10,992, the opportunity cost of earning $643/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.9% | 91% | 18% | $400 | $1,714 | -$2,520 | $7,342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 17.9% OTM over spot $15.27 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.09) 92% EV / mo +$632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,172 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,533 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 303 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $18.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,087 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,342 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,280 (+$16,745 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,930 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,650, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $17 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.3% | 83% | 35% | $648 | $2,777 | -$1,457 | $8,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $17 11.3% OTM over spot $15.27 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.19 mid) = $648 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,777/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.19) 85% EV / mo +$826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,417 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,347 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 703 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $17.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,087 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $17): -$8,526 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,078 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,542 (+$12,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,930 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-612, the opportunity cost of earning $2,777/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.1% | 76% | 36% | $988 | $4,234 | — | $10,596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16.50 8.1% OTM over spot $15.27 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.28 mid) = $988 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,234/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.77) 80% EV / mo +$933 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,286 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,055 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,090 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $16.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,087 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16.50): -$10,596 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,638 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,172 (+$10,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,930 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,242, the opportunity cost of earning $4,234/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.5% | 57% | 89% | $1,980 | $8,486 | +$4,251 | $12,594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15.50 1.5% OTM over spot $15.27 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.57 mid) = $1,980 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $16.07) 69% EV / mo +$838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~19.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,876 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$161 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.68–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,071 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $16.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,087 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15.50): -$12,594 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$3,078 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,610 (+$8,415 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,930 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,680, the opportunity cost of earning $8,486/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,087 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,930
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 38/50 | $4,234 | $4,491 | 76% | 80% | +$933 | -$10,596 | 33.9% | $-13,172 (vs do-nothing $-2,242) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 43/50 | $4,239 | $4,121 | 71% | 77% | +$744 | -$11,130 | 35.6% | $-12,607 (vs do-nothing $-1,677) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 44/50 | $4,211 | $4,019 | 69% | 76% | +$765 | -$10,465 | 33.5% | $-11,722 (vs do-nothing $-792) |
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 26/50 | $4,234 | $5,391 | 68% | 75% | +$655 | -$8,238 | 26.4% | $-13,452 (vs do-nothing $-2,522) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 34/50 | $4,299 | $4,856 | 65% | 73% | +$447 | -$10,058 | 32.2% | $-13,514 (vs do-nothing $-2,584) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 37/50 | $4,229 | $4,561 | 63% | 73% | +$474 | -$10,169 | 32.5% | $-12,965 (vs do-nothing $-2,035) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 18/50 | $4,243 | $6,000 | 57% | 69% | +$419 | -$6,297 | 20.2% | $-13,270 (vs do-nothing $-2,340) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 30/50 | $4,286 | $5,143 | 57% | 69% | +$388 | -$9,145 | 29.3% | $-13,480 (vs do-nothing $-2,550) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 25/50 | $4,179 | $5,411 | 57% | 69% | +$310 | -$8,171 | 26.1% | $-13,605 (vs do-nothing $-2,675) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 24/50 | $4,320 | $5,627 | 50% | 67% | +$380 | -$7,892 | 25.3% | $-13,546 (vs do-nothing $-2,616) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 19/50 | $4,275 | $5,957 | 49% | 65% | +$348 | -$6,647 | 21.3% | $-13,400 (vs do-nothing $-2,470) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 13/50 | $4,346 | $6,478 | 46% | 64% | +$241 | -$4,899 | 15.7% | $-12,971 (vs do-nothing $-2,041) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.