50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,054/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $643/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 38 × $16.50 | 77% | $4,560 | $1,311 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 50 × $20 | 17 Jul | 7d | 31.5% | 97% | 5% | $150 | $643 | -$3,917 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $20 31.5% OTM over spot $15.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 7d cycle → $643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $20.04) 97% EV / mo +$411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-256 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,378 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $20.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,277 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $20): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2 (+$24,277 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$10,893, the opportunity cost of earning $643/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.4% | 92% | 17% | $450 | $1,929 | -$2,631 | $7,193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 18.4% OTM over spot $15.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.10) 92% EV / mo +$919 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,863 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,725 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 260 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $18.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,277 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,191 (+$17,084 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,700, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 37 × $17 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.8% | 84% | 34% | $703 | $3,013 | -$1,547 | $8,653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $17 11.8% OTM over spot $15.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $703 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,013/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $17.20) 86% EV / mo +$1,167 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.2] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,714 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,516 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $17.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,277 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $17): -$8,653 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,832 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,483 (+$12,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-592, the opportunity cost of earning $3,013/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.5% | 77% | 34% | $1,064 | $4,560 | — | $10,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $16.50 8.5% OTM over spot $15.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $1,064 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $16.80) 82% EV / mo +$1,521 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,294 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,148 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,028 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,277 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $16.50): -$10,445 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,057 (+$11,218 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,166, the opportunity cost of earning $4,560/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.9% | 59% | 86% | $2,166 | $9,283 | +$4,723 | $13,143 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $15.50 1.9% OTM over spot $15.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $2,166 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $16.10) 71% EV / mo +$1,731 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~18.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,349 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$88 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,003 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $16.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,277 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $15.50): -$13,143 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,755 (+$8,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,864, the opportunity cost of earning $9,283/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,277 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,891
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 38/50 | $4,560 | $4,817 | 77% | 82% | +$1,521 | -$10,445 | 33.4% | $-13,057 (vs do-nothing $-2,166) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 46/50 | $4,534 | $4,191 | 72% | 78% | +$980 | -$11,816 | 37.8% | $-12,685 (vs do-nothing $-1,794) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 47/50 | $4,566 | $4,148 | 70% | 77% | +$1,037 | -$11,039 | 35.3% | $-11,690 (vs do-nothing $-799) |
| $16 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 26/50 | $4,569 | $5,726 | 69% | 76% | +$1,255 | -$8,108 | 25.9% | $-13,335 (vs do-nothing $-2,444) |
| $16 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 35/50 | $4,575 | $5,057 | 66% | 74% | +$787 | -$10,215 | 32.7% | $-13,481 (vs do-nothing $-2,590) |
| $16 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 38/50 | $4,560 | $4,817 | 64% | 74% | +$857 | -$10,217 | 32.7% | $-12,829 (vs do-nothing $-1,938) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 19/50 | $4,641 | $6,324 | 59% | 71% | +$865 | -$6,571 | 21.0% | $-13,323 (vs do-nothing $-2,432) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 27/50 | $4,686 | $5,769 | 58% | 70% | +$730 | -$8,690 | 27.8% | $-13,699 (vs do-nothing $-2,808) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 31/50 | $4,606 | $5,388 | 58% | 71% | +$727 | -$9,265 | 29.6% | $-13,402 (vs do-nothing $-2,511) |
| $15 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 25/50 | $4,607 | $5,839 | 51% | 68% | +$658 | -$8,097 | 25.9% | $-13,541 (vs do-nothing $-2,650) |
| $15 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 21/50 | $4,725 | $6,257 | 50% | 67% | +$578 | -$7,305 | 23.4% | $-13,621 (vs do-nothing $-2,730) |
| $15 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 13/50 | $4,624 | $6,756 | 48% | 66% | +$739 | -$4,808 | 15.4% | $-12,867 (vs do-nothing $-1,976) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.