50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.72 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,096/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $585/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 44 × $16.50 | 81% | $5,060 | $1,460 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $19 | 17 Jul | 6d | 25.5% | 97% | 6% | $120 | $600 | -$4,460 | $2,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $19 25.5% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid) = $120 credit for the 6d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $19.04) 97% EV / mo +$410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,391 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,362 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $19.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $19): -$2,743 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,145 (+$20,605 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,800, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.5% | 93% | 14% | $500 | $2,500 | -$2,560 | $10,578 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 15.5% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.61) 94% EV / mo +$1,820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,882 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,357 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $17.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$10,578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,595 (+$15,155 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,350, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $17 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.2% | 88% | 24% | $675 | $3,375 | -$1,685 | $11,545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17 12.2% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.15 mid) = $675 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $17.16) 90% EV / mo +$2,075 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.9] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,823 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 504 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17): -$11,545 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,755 (+$12,995 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-810, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.9% | 81% | 30% | $1,012 | $5,060 | — | $13,137 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $16.50 8.9% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.24 mid) = $1,012 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $16.74) 85% EV / mo +$2,533 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,354 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,359 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 911 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $16.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $16.50): -$13,137 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,431 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,585 (+$11,165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,640, the opportunity cost of earning $5,060/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.3% | 61% | 81% | $2,028 | $10,140 | +$5,080 | $14,413 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $15.50 2.3% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.53 mid) = $2,028 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $16.03) 73% EV / mo +$2,860 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~18.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,520 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$54 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.66–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,854 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $15.50): -$14,413 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,054 (+$8,696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,109, the opportunity cost of earning $10,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,733 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,945
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 44/50 | $5,060 | $4,932 | 81% | 85% | +$2,533 | -$13,137 | 42.0% | $-14,585 (vs do-nothing $-2,640) |
| $16.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 49/50 | $5,088 | $4,579 | 74% | 80% | +$1,784 | -$13,552 | 43.4% | $-13,807 (vs do-nothing $-1,862) |
| $16 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 29/50 | $5,220 | $6,234 | 72% | 79% | +$2,073 | -$9,731 | 31.1% | $-14,758 (vs do-nothing $-2,813) |
| $16 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 38/50 | $5,174 | $5,502 | 67% | 76% | +$1,434 | -$11,878 | 38.0% | $-14,757 (vs do-nothing $-2,812) |
| $16 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 43/50 | $5,160 | $5,108 | 65% | 75% | +$1,358 | -$12,537 | 40.1% | $-14,224 (vs do-nothing $-2,279) |
| $15.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 20/50 | $5,200 | $6,899 | 61% | 73% | +$1,467 | -$7,391 | 23.7% | $-14,565 (vs do-nothing $-2,620) |
| $15.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 29/50 | $5,220 | $6,234 | 59% | 72% | +$1,155 | -$9,963 | 31.9% | $-14,990 (vs do-nothing $-3,045) |
| $15.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 34/50 | $5,049 | $5,682 | 59% | 72% | +$1,090 | -$10,967 | 35.1% | $-14,801 (vs do-nothing $-2,856) |
| $15 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 28/50 | $5,124 | $6,214 | 52% | 68% | +$897 | -$9,788 | 31.3% | $-15,053 (vs do-nothing $-3,108) |
| $15 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 22/50 | $5,178 | $6,725 | 50% | 68% | +$910 | -$8,130 | 26.0% | $-14,827 (vs do-nothing $-2,882) |
| $15 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 14/50 | $5,320 | $7,476 | 48% | 67% | +$1,087 | -$5,538 | 17.7% | $-14,143 (vs do-nothing $-2,198) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.