FORTRESS FIGHT: BMNR @ $15.14

BE SS: $17.13  |  CC-SS: $19.72  |  50 contracts (5,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 00:20

BMNR @ $15.14   UNDERWATER $1.98 (11.6% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $17.13  |  CC-SS: $19.72  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $13.315/sh)
SP: $18 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.355/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.258/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$71,250(ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000
Normal income ref$10,096/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$585/mo
Unrealized P&L$-25,750fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,048/mo
HEDGE COVER
$585/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$10,096/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $31,250
ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $71,250
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $19.72 (probe: $19.5C 13d) brings only $808/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 55 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $18.85 (+24%) · daily UBB $17.03 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPBounce ignition risk is maximal: stay at 🎯 min-cap, shortest DTE, momentum override armed. Challenges are the plan, not the surprise. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 44 contracts at $16.50 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,048/mo); it brings $5,060/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 39 × $15.50/6d for $10,140/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+21pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 40 × $19/6d (97% survival, $600/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,137 (42% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 1.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 44 contracts realizes $-22,704 and cuts bleed by $515/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 44 × $16.50, 81% survival, $5,060/mo (E[net] $1,460/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d44 × $16.5081%$5,060$1,460

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $1,460/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 44 × $16.50 (primary), 81% survival, breach 19%, $5,060/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $17 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 19% → 12%) for $1,685/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
BMNR  spot $15.14 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge40 × $1917 Jul6d25.5%97%6%$120$600-$4,460$2,743
Sell 40 × $19 25.5% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid)
= $120 credit for the 6d cycle → $600/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $19.04)
97%
EV / mo
+$410
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo)  ·  64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without)  ·  ~0.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,391
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
2%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,362
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$20 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (40 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1924 Jul 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$1,167
cycle +$1,287
68%
surv 52%
-$4,430 NOT
cap gain +$21,320
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1924 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$473
cycle +$593
71%
surv 59%
-$3,480 NOT
cap gain +$22,270
Max even-money escape in the band~$2031 Jul 202617d left+$0.01/sh+$24
cycle +$144
77%
surv 71%
+$702 SAFE
cap gain +$26,452
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,048/mo)-88%
vs normal income ($10,096/mo)6% covered
Net income (after hedge)$776/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,743
… as % of IC ($31,250)8.8%
… as % of ML ($71,250)3.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (40 ct)$-20,640
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $19.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $18.81Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$19-19.04
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $19.04
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$19.00 (2.5σ)$120$-5,596+$20,154+$6,800
+2.5%$19.47 (2.8σ)$-1,780$-5,297+$20,453+$6,800
+5%$19.95 (3.1σ)$-3,680$-4,998+$20,752+$6,800
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733
− CC assignment net of premium (40 × $19): -$2,743
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,386
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,145 (+$20,605 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,800, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield50 × $17.5017 Jul6d15.5%93%14%$500$2,500-$2,560$10,578
Sell 50 × $17.50 15.5% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.11 mid)
= $500 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $17.61)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,820
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo)  ·  60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without)  ·  ~2.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,882
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,357
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 78% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.88)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (50 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1824 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$1,583
cycle +$2,083
[+$1,392…+$2,139] · 100% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$10,408 NOT
cap gain +$15,342
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1824 Jul 202610d left+$0.14/sh+$723
cycle +$1,223
[+$378…+$1,121] · 92% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$9,269 NOT
cap gain +$16,481
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1831 Jul 202617d left+$0.20/sh+$1,009
cycle +$1,509
[+$536…+$1,416] · 92% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$6,169 NOT
cap gain +$19,581
Max even-money escape in the band~$1931 Jul 202617d left+$0.03/sh+$156
cycle +$656
[-$512…+$477] · 53% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$4,207 NOT
cap gain +$21,543
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($5,048/mo)-50%
vs normal income ($10,096/mo)25% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,915/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,578
… as % of IC ($31,250)33.9%
… as % of ML ($71,250)14.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.0 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)$-25,775
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $17.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $17.32Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$17-17.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $17.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$17.50 (1.5σ)$500$-11,991+$13,759+$1,350
+2.5%$17.94 (1.8σ)$-1,688$-11,716+$14,034+$1,350
+5%$18.38 (2.1σ)$-3,875$-11,440+$14,310+$1,350
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733
− CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$10,578
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,595 (+$15,155 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,350, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal45 × $1717 Jul6d12.2%88%24%$675$3,375-$1,685$11,545
Sell 45 × $17 12.2% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.15 mid)
= $675 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,375/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays ≤ $17.16)
90%
EV / mo
+$2,075
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.9] median  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without)  ·  ~4.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,853
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
17%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,823
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 81% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.86)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 504 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (45 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$1,454
cycle +$2,129
[+$1,232…+$1,915] · 99% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$13,012 NOT
cap gain +$12,738
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$683
cycle +$1,358
[+$327…+$1,003] · 90% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$11,963 NOT
cap gain +$13,787
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1831 Jul 202617d left+$0.21/sh+$931
cycle +$1,606
[+$444…+$1,259] · 90% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$9,149 NOT
cap gain +$16,601
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202617d left+$0.04/sh+$168
cycle +$843
[-$451…+$447] · 47% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$7,347 NOT
cap gain +$18,403
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1931 Jul 202617d left-$0.10/sh-$453
cycle +$222
[-$1,217…-$201] · 20% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$5,403 NOT
cap gain +$20,347
budget: banked $675 debit $453 (67% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$222 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $3,609/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($5,048/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($10,096/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,170/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,545
… as % of IC ($31,250)36.9%
… as % of ML ($71,250)16.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)$-23,197
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.83Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$17-17.16
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $17.16
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$17.00 (1.2σ)$675$-14,466+$11,284-$810
+2.5%$17.42 (1.5σ)$-1,237$-14,199+$11,551-$810
+5%$17.85 (1.8σ)$-3,150$-13,931+$11,819-$810
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733
− CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17): -$11,545
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,193
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,755 (+$12,995 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-810, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal44 × $16.5017 Jul6d8.9%81%30%$1,012$5,060$13,137
Sell 44 × $16.50 8.9% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.24 mid)
= $1,012 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,060/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $16.50)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $16.74)
85%
EV / mo
+$2,533
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo)  ·  71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without)  ·  ~6.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $9,354
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
30%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,359
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.89)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 911 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (44 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.33/sh+$1,446
cycle +$2,458
[+$1,155…+$1,674] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$15,465 NOT
cap gain +$10,285
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1724 Jul 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$694
cycle +$1,706
[+$281…+$830] · 89% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$14,219 NOT
cap gain +$11,531
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1731 Jul 202617d left+$0.21/sh+$929
cycle +$1,941
[+$363…+$1,063] · 88% credit
75%
surv 65%
-$11,382 NOT
cap gain +$14,368
Max even-money escape in the band~$1831 Jul 202617d left+$0.04/sh+$187
cycle +$1,199
[-$534…+$234] · 37% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$9,608 NOT
cap gain +$16,142
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1931 Jul 202617d left-$0.19/sh-$842
cycle +$170
[-$1,828…-$871] · 3% credit
85%
surv 82%
-$5,608 NOT
cap gain +$20,142
budget: banked $1,012 debit $842 (83% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $2,698/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,060/mo
vs 50% target ($5,048/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($10,096/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,932/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,137
… as % of IC ($31,250)42.0%
… as % of ML ($71,250)18.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.3 mo
Surgical close (44 ct)$-22,704
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $16.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $16.34Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$16-16.74
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.74
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$16.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,012$-16,911+$8,839-$440
+2.5%$16.91 (1.2σ)$-803$-16,404+$9,346-$2,255
+5%$17.32 (1.4σ)$-2,618$-16,092+$9,658-$2,640
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733
− CC assignment net of premium (44 × $16.50): -$13,137
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,431
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,585 (+$11,165 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,640, the opportunity cost of earning $5,060/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal39 × $15.5017 Jul6d2.3%61%81%$2,028$10,140+$5,080$14,413
Sell 39 × $15.50 2.3% OTM over spot $15.14 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.53 mid)
= $2,028 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,140/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $16.03)
73%
EV / mo
+$2,860
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo)  ·  68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without)  ·  ~18.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $12,520
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
62%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$54
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$19 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.66–$0.97)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,854 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (39 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.34/sh+$1,315
cycle +$3,343
[+$924…+$1,174] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$20,046 NOT
cap gain +$5,704
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1624 Jul 202610d left+$0.17/sh+$652
cycle +$2,680
[+$128…+$468] · 84% credit
71%
surv 59%
-$18,709 NOT
cap gain +$7,041
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1631 Jul 202617d left+$0.22/sh+$842
cycle +$2,870
[+$124…+$591] · 82% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$15,705 NOT
cap gain +$10,045
Max even-money escape in the band~$1731 Jul 202617d left+$0.05/sh+$194
cycle +$2,222
[-$685…-$114] · 18% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$13,537 NOT
cap gain +$12,213
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1931 Jul 202617d left-$0.32/sh-$1,230
cycle +$798
[-$2,585…-$1,678]
90%
surv 89%
-$5,742 NOT
cap gain +$20,008
budget: banked $2,028 debit $1,230 (61% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$798 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $1,314/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$10,140/mo
vs 50% target ($5,048/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($10,096/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$10,392/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,413
… as % of IC ($31,250)46.1%
… as % of ML ($71,250)20.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (39 ct)$-20,124
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $15.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$15-16.03
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $16.03
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$15.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,028$-21,360+$4,390+$741
+2.5%$15.89 (≤1σ, normal week)$517$-20,690+$5,060-$770
+5%$16.28 (≤1σ, normal week)$-995$-20,020+$5,730-$2,282
SS (= V-bounce)$17.13 (1.3σ)$-4,329$-18,683+$7,067-$5,109
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,750
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,733
− CC assignment net of premium (39 × $15.50): -$14,413
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$2,624
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,054 (+$8,696 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,109, the opportunity cost of earning $10,140/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on BMNR are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$25,733 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,945

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$16.506d17 Jul 2026$0.2344/50$5,060$4,93281%85%+$2,533-$13,13742.0%$-14,585 (vs do-nothing $-2,640)
$16.5013d24 Jul 2026$0.4549/50$5,088$4,57974%80%+$1,784-$13,55243.4%$-13,807 (vs do-nothing $-1,862)
$166d17 Jul 2026$0.3629/50$5,220$6,23472%79%+$2,073-$9,73131.1%$-14,758 (vs do-nothing $-2,813)
$1613d24 Jul 2026$0.5938/50$5,174$5,50267%76%+$1,434-$11,87838.0%$-14,757 (vs do-nothing $-2,812)
$1620d31 Jul 2026$0.8043/50$5,160$5,10865%75%+$1,358-$12,53740.1%$-14,224 (vs do-nothing $-2,279)
$15.506d17 Jul 2026$0.5220/50$5,200$6,89961%73%+$1,467-$7,39123.7%$-14,565 (vs do-nothing $-2,620)
$15.5013d24 Jul 2026$0.7829/50$5,220$6,23459%72%+$1,155-$9,96331.9%$-14,990 (vs do-nothing $-3,045)
$15.5020d31 Jul 2026$0.9934/50$5,049$5,68259%72%+$1,090-$10,96735.1%$-14,801 (vs do-nothing $-2,856)
$1520d31 Jul 2026$1.2228/50$5,124$6,21452%68%+$897-$9,78831.3%$-15,053 (vs do-nothing $-3,108)
$1513d24 Jul 2026$1.0222/50$5,178$6,72550%68%+$910-$8,13026.0%$-14,827 (vs do-nothing $-2,882)
$156d17 Jul 2026$0.7614/50$5,320$7,47648%67%+$1,087-$5,53817.7%$-14,143 (vs do-nothing $-2,198)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 00:20