50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,654/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $585/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 31 × $16 | 76% | $4,340 | $1,400 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $19 | 17 Jul | 6d | 26.8% | 98% | 4% | $120 | $600 | -$3,740 | $3,602 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $19 26.8% OTM over spot $14.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid) = $120 credit for the 6d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $19.04) 98% EV / mo +$472 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,573 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,360 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $19.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,796 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $19): -$3,602 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$2,630 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,336 (+$21,564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,256 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$6,920, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 16.8% | 93% | 14% | $400 | $2,000 | -$2,340 | $11,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17.50 16.8% OTM over spot $14.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $17.59) 94% EV / mo +$1,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,067 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,455 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $17.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,796 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17.50): -$11,752 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,856 (+$16,044 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,256 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,400, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 48 × $17 | 17 Jul | 6d | 13.5% | 90% | 21% | $576 | $2,880 | -$1,460 | $13,490 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $17 13.5% OTM over spot $14.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.13 mid) = $576 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 91% EV / mo +$1,682 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.3] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,868 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,087 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,796 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $17): -$13,490 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$526 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,120 (+$13,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-864, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 31 × $16 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.8% | 76% | 36% | $868 | $4,340 | — | $11,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 31 × $16 6.8% OTM over spot $14.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.30 mid) = $868 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 81% EV / mo +$1,769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,128 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$750 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 31 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,090 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,796 − CC assignment net of premium (31 × $16): -$11,316 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17): -$4,998 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,418 (+$11,482 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,162, the opportunity cost of earning $4,340/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.5% | 65% | 72% | $1,763 | $8,815 | +$4,475 | $17,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $15.50 3.5% OTM over spot $14.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.42 mid) = $1,763 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,815/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $15.93) 75% EV / mo +$2,499 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,248 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$412 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,654 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $4 below CC-SS $19.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $15.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $17.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,796 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $15.50): -$17,288 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$1,841 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,233 (+$8,667 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,256 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,977, the opportunity cost of earning $8,815/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,796 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,256
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 31/50 | $4,340 | $5,070 | 76% | 81% | +$1,769 | -$11,316 | 36.2% | $-16,418 (vs do-nothing $-3,162) |
| $16.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 50/50 | $4,350 | $3,765 | 73% | 79% | +$1,224 | -$14,252 | 45.6% | $-14,356 (vs do-nothing $-1,100) |
| $16 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 37/50 | $4,440 | $4,755 | 69% | 77% | +$1,109 | -$12,618 | 40.4% | $-16,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,886) |
| $16 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 40/50 | $4,380 | $4,487 | 67% | 76% | +$1,068 | -$12,802 | 41.0% | $-15,536 (vs do-nothing $-2,280) |
| $15.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 22/50 | $4,510 | $5,863 | 65% | 75% | +$1,278 | -$8,845 | 28.3% | $-16,314 (vs do-nothing $-3,058) |
| $15.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 36/50 | $4,403 | $4,787 | 62% | 72% | $-190 | -$14,041 | 44.9% | $-17,828 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $15.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 39/50 | $4,388 | $4,564 | 61% | 72% | +$150 | -$14,354 | 45.9% | $-17,351 (vs do-nothing $-4,095) |
| $15 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 32/50 | $4,464 | $5,125 | 54% | 69% | $-41 | -$12,801 | 41.0% | $-17,640 (vs do-nothing $-4,384) |
| $15 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 25/50 | $4,327 | $5,472 | 53% | 68% | $-85 | -$10,451 | 33.4% | $-17,131 (vs do-nothing $-3,875) |
| $15 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 15/50 | $4,575 | $6,413 | 53% | 69% | +$870 | -$6,481 | 20.7% | $-15,791 (vs do-nothing $-2,535) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.