50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.23 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,227/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $615/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 41 × $16.50 | 89% | $5,228 | $2,984 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 37 × $16 | 71% | $5,247 | $1,433 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $19.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.4% | 99+% | 1% | $84 | $630 | -$4,598 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $19.50 30.4% OTM over spot $14.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $84 credit for the 4d cycle → $630/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $19.53) 99+% EV / mo +$613 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $748 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,687 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19.50 is at/above CC-SS $19.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $19.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $19.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,544 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,662 (+$22,488 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$8,106, the opportunity cost of earning $630/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 38 × $17 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.7% | 94% | 12% | $456 | $3,420 | -$1,808 | $8,018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17 13.7% OTM over spot $14.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $456 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 95% EV / mo +$2,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,633 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,730 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 210 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17): -$8,018 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,316 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,452 (+$13,698 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-684, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.7% | 94% | 12% | $600 | $4,500 | -$728 | $10,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17 13.7% OTM over spot $14.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $600 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 95% EV / mo +$3,825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,559 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,276 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 182 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17): -$10,550 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,668 (+$13,482 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-900, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.4% | 89% | 13% | $697 | $5,228 | — | $10,496 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16.50 10.4% OTM over spot $14.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.19 mid) = $697 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,228/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $16.69) 91% EV / mo +$3,952 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,830 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,592 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16.50): -$10,496 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,737 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,351 (+$11,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,583, the opportunity cost of earning $5,228/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 49 × $16 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.0% | 81% | 39% | $1,372 | $10,290 | +$5,062 | $14,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $16 7.0% OTM over spot $14.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $1,372 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 86% EV / mo +$6,848 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,423 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,281 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 799 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $16 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $16): -$14,455 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,766 (+$9,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,998, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 26 × $19 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.1% | 96% | 9% | $234 | $638 | -$4,609 | $364 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $19 27.1% OTM over spot $14.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.10 mid) = $234 credit for the 11d cycle → $638/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $19.10) 96% EV / mo +$477 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,794 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,171 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 66% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $0 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $19.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $19): -$364 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17): -$4,632 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,114 (+$19,036 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,654, the opportunity cost of earning $638/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.4% | 91% | 18% | $800 | $2,182 | -$3,065 | $5,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 20.4% OTM over spot $14.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.18) 92% EV / mo +$1,411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,211 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,581 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 66% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $18.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$5,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,468 (+$18,682 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 42 × $17 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.7% | 84% | 34% | $1,260 | $3,436 | -$1,811 | $8,106 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $17 13.7% OTM over spot $14.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.32 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $17.32) 87% EV / mo +$1,841 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,785 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,216 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 784 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $17.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $17): -$8,106 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,544 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,768 (+$14,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $16 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.0% | 71% | 49% | $1,924 | $5,247 | — | $10,027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 7.0% OTM over spot $14.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.54 mid) = $1,924 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,247/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 79% EV / mo +$1,964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~6.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,958 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$958 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,456 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,032 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$10,027 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,654 (+$11,496 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,768 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,886, the opportunity cost of earning $5,247/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,032 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,768
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 41/50 | $5,228 | $5,348 | 89% | 91% | +$3,952 | -$10,496 | 33.6% | $-12,351 (vs do-nothing $-2,583) |
| $16 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 25/50 | $5,250 | $6,680 | 81% | 86% | +$3,494 | -$7,375 | 23.6% | $-12,318 (vs do-nothing $-2,550) |
| $16 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 37/50 | $5,247 | $5,696 | 71% | 79% | +$1,964 | -$10,027 | 32.1% | $-12,654 (vs do-nothing $-2,886) |
| $15.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 17/50 | $5,228 | $7,312 | 69% | 79% | +$2,687 | -$5,644 | 18.1% | $-12,131 (vs do-nothing $-2,363) |
| $16 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 43/50 | $5,232 | $5,189 | 68% | 77% | +$1,680 | -$10,750 | 34.4% | $-12,219 (vs do-nothing $-2,451) |
| $15.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 36/50 | $5,204 | $5,734 | 63% | 73% | +$489 | -$11,520 | 36.9% | $-14,340 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $15.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 41/50 | $5,125 | $5,246 | 62% | 73% | +$593 | -$12,218 | 39.1% | $-14,073 (vs do-nothing $-4,305) |
| $15 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 33/50 | $5,115 | $5,891 | 54% | 70% | +$307 | -$10,890 | 34.8% | $-14,289 (vs do-nothing $-4,521) |
| $15 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 26/50 | $5,318 | $6,666 | 54% | 69% | +$445 | -$9,048 | 29.0% | $-13,798 (vs do-nothing $-4,030) |
| $15 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 12/50 | $5,490 | $7,984 | 53% | 73% | +$2,011 | -$4,344 | 13.9% | $-11,796 (vs do-nothing $-2,028) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.