50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,227/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $615/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 41 × $16.50 | 90% | $5,228 | $3,143 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 37 × $16 | 72% | $5,247 | $1,461 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $20 | 17 Jul | 4d | 34.4% | 99+% | 1% | $84 | $630 | -$4,598 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $20 34.4% OTM over spot $14.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $84 credit for the 4d cycle → $630/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $20.02) 99+% EV / mo +$622 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $445 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,970 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $20.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,602 (+$22,548 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,840, the opportunity cost of earning $630/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 38 × $17 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.2% | 94% | 11% | $456 | $3,420 | -$1,808 | $7,777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17 14.2% OTM over spot $14.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $456 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 95% EV / mo +$2,979 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,089 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,892 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 186 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17): -$7,777 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,126 (+$14,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-684, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $17 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.2% | 94% | 11% | $600 | $4,500 | -$728 | $10,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $17 14.2% OTM over spot $14.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $600 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 95% EV / mo +$3,920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,798 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,490 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $17): -$10,233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,342 (+$13,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-900, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 90% | 11% | $697 | $5,228 | — | $10,236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16.50 10.8% OTM over spot $14.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.19 mid) = $697 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,228/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $16.69) 92% EV / mo +$4,117 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,937 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,762 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16.50): -$10,236 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,680 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,025 (+$12,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,583, the opportunity cost of earning $5,228/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 49 × $16 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.5% | 82% | 36% | $1,372 | $10,290 | +$5,062 | $14,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $16 7.5% OTM over spot $14.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $1,372 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 88% EV / mo +$7,243 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,052 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,478 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 729 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $16 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $16): -$14,145 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$187 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,440 (+$9,710 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,998, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 38 × $20 | 24 Jul | 11d | 34.4% | 98% | 4% | $228 | $622 | -$4,625 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $20 34.4% OTM over spot $14.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.07 mid) = $228 credit for the 11d cycle → $622/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $20.07) 98% EV / mo +$533 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,132 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,630 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $20 @ 66% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $0.54–$1.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $20 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $20.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,348 (+$21,802 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,093, the opportunity cost of earning $622/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.9% | 92% | 17% | $800 | $2,182 | -$3,065 | $5,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 20.9% OTM over spot $14.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.18) 93% EV / mo +$1,473 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,180 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,768 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $18.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$5,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,142 (+$19,008 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 42 × $17 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.2% | 84% | 32% | $1,260 | $3,436 | -$1,811 | $7,840 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $17 14.2% OTM over spot $14.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.32 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $17.32) 87% EV / mo +$1,954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,308 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,364 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 741 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $17.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $17): -$7,840 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,442 (+$14,708 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $16 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.5% | 72% | 46% | $1,924 | $5,247 | — | $9,793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 7.5% OTM over spot $14.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.54 mid) = $1,924 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,247/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 80% EV / mo +$2,159 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,544 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,081 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,386 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,042 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$9,793 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,427 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,328 (+$11,822 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,886, the opportunity cost of earning $5,247/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,042 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,442
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 41/50 | $5,228 | $5,348 | 90% | 92% | +$4,117 | -$10,236 | 32.8% | $-12,025 (vs do-nothing $-2,583) |
| $16 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 25/50 | $5,250 | $6,680 | 82% | 88% | +$3,696 | -$7,217 | 23.1% | $-11,992 (vs do-nothing $-2,550) |
| $16 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 37/50 | $5,247 | $5,696 | 72% | 80% | +$2,159 | -$9,793 | 31.3% | $-12,328 (vs do-nothing $-2,886) |
| $15.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 17/50 | $5,228 | $7,312 | 71% | 81% | +$2,936 | -$5,536 | 17.7% | $-11,805 (vs do-nothing $-2,363) |
| $16 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 43/50 | $5,232 | $5,189 | 69% | 78% | +$1,842 | -$10,478 | 33.5% | $-11,893 (vs do-nothing $-2,451) |
| $15.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 36/50 | $5,204 | $5,734 | 64% | 74% | +$742 | -$11,292 | 36.1% | $-14,014 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $15.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 41/50 | $5,125 | $5,246 | 62% | 73% | +$784 | -$11,958 | 38.3% | $-13,747 (vs do-nothing $-4,305) |
| $15 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 12/50 | $5,490 | $7,984 | 55% | 74% | +$2,293 | -$4,268 | 13.7% | $-11,470 (vs do-nothing $-2,028) |
| $15 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 33/50 | $5,115 | $5,891 | 55% | 71% | +$491 | -$10,681 | 34.2% | $-13,963 (vs do-nothing $-4,521) |
| $15 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 26/50 | $5,318 | $6,666 | 55% | 70% | +$678 | -$8,883 | 28.4% | $-13,472 (vs do-nothing $-4,030) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.