50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.09 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,227/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $615/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 41 × $16.50 | 91% | $5,228 | $3,226 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 37 × $16 | 73% | $5,247 | $1,497 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $19.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 31.7% | 99+% | 1% | $84 | $630 | -$4,598 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $19.50 31.7% OTM over spot $14.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $84 credit for the 4d cycle → $630/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $19.53) 99+% EV / mo +$619 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $638 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,158 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $21 @ 77% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19.50 is at/above CC-SS $19.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $19.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $19.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,531 (+$22,619 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,534, the opportunity cost of earning $630/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 38 × $17 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.8% | 95% | 10% | $456 | $3,420 | -$1,808 | $7,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $17 14.8% OTM over spot $14.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $456 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $17.13) 96% EV / mo +$3,052 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,502 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,101 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.54–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 149 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $17.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $17): -$7,500 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17): -$2,153 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,749 (+$14,401 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-684, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.4% | 91% | 10% | $697 | $5,228 | — | $9,938 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $16.50 11.4% OTM over spot $14.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.19 mid) = $697 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,228/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.69) 93% EV / mo +$4,286 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,318 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,981 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $16.50): -$9,938 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$1,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,648 (+$12,502 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,583, the opportunity cost of earning $5,228/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.4% | 91% | 18% | $850 | $6,375 | +$1,148 | $12,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16.50 11.4% OTM over spot $14.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.19 mid) = $850 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.69) 93% EV / mo +$5,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,455 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,416 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $3 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $16.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16.50): -$12,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,215 (+$11,935 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,150, the opportunity cost of earning $6,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 49 × $16 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.0% | 84% | 33% | $1,372 | $10,290 | +$5,062 | $13,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $16 8.0% OTM over spot $14.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $1,372 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $16.30) 89% EV / mo +$7,654 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,154 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,732 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $16 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $16.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $16): -$13,788 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$179 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,063 (+$10,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,998, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 26 × $19 | 24 Jul | 11d | 28.3% | 96% | 8% | $234 | $638 | -$4,609 | $10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $19 28.3% OTM over spot $14.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.10 mid) = $234 credit for the 11d cycle → $638/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $19.10) 96% EV / mo +$506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,854 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,400 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 66% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 142 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $19 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $19 is at/above CC-SS $19.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $19.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $19): -$10 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17): -$4,305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,411 (+$19,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,654, the opportunity cost of earning $638/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.5% | 92% | 16% | $800 | $2,182 | -$3,065 | $4,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 21.5% OTM over spot $14.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $18.18) 93% EV / mo +$1,540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,219 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,999 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $1 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $18.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$4,669 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,765 (+$19,385 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 42 × $17 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.8% | 85% | 31% | $1,260 | $3,436 | -$1,811 | $7,534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $17 14.8% OTM over spot $14.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.32 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,436/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $17.32) 88% EV / mo +$2,077 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,826 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,547 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 695 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $17 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $17.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $17): -$7,534 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,065 (+$15,085 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $3,436/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $16 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.0% | 73% | 44% | $1,924 | $5,247 | — | $9,523 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 8.0% OTM over spot $14.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.54 mid) = $1,924 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,247/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 81% EV / mo +$2,375 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,123 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,232 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,307 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,054 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$9,523 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$2,332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,951 (+$12,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,065 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,886, the opportunity cost of earning $5,247/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,054 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,065
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 41/50 | $5,228 | $5,348 | 91% | 93% | +$4,286 | -$9,938 | 31.8% | $-11,648 (vs do-nothing $-2,583) |
| $16 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 25/50 | $5,250 | $6,680 | 84% | 89% | +$3,905 | -$7,035 | 22.5% | $-11,615 (vs do-nothing $-2,550) |
| $16 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 37/50 | $5,247 | $5,696 | 73% | 81% | +$2,375 | -$9,523 | 30.5% | $-11,951 (vs do-nothing $-2,886) |
| $15.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 17/50 | $5,228 | $7,312 | 73% | 83% | +$3,202 | -$5,412 | 17.3% | $-11,428 (vs do-nothing $-2,363) |
| $16 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 43/50 | $5,232 | $5,189 | 70% | 79% | +$2,023 | -$10,164 | 32.5% | $-11,516 (vs do-nothing $-2,451) |
| $15.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 36/50 | $5,204 | $5,734 | 65% | 75% | +$1,023 | -$11,030 | 35.3% | $-13,637 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $15.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 41/50 | $5,125 | $5,246 | 64% | 74% | +$997 | -$11,660 | 37.3% | $-13,370 (vs do-nothing $-4,305) |
| $15 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 12/50 | $5,490 | $7,984 | 58% | 76% | +$2,600 | -$4,181 | 13.4% | $-11,093 (vs do-nothing $-2,028) |
| $15 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 26/50 | $5,318 | $6,666 | 56% | 71% | +$938 | -$8,694 | 27.8% | $-13,095 (vs do-nothing $-4,030) |
| $15 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 33/50 | $5,115 | $5,891 | 56% | 72% | +$698 | -$10,441 | 33.4% | $-13,586 (vs do-nothing $-4,521) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.